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- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - The fed will have no choice but to keep interest

- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - The fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates low. This means we will have another year of rapidly rising asset prices. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s. - Crypto will undergo a major crash in 2022. It follows predictable, cyclical patterns, and we are nearing the end of the classic boom/bust cycle. It is unclear whether this will cause the Tether situation to blow up. - Mainly due to supply issues, we won't get a taste of any AR/VR metaverse type stuff next year. There will be a lot of hype-laden news articles about it, but nobody will actually live this future yet. - Nothing will happen in China with Evergrande or any of these other companies. Nor will China invade Taiwan (yet). - The "lie-flat" movement massively picks up. People don't realize how widespread this sentiment is in Gen Z, which doesn't need excessive consumerism to be happy, all they need is a computer. It is unclear what effects this will have on the economy.

JasonCannon 5y ago
>- Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s. Due to this, GOP is probably going to retake the house largely because people won't realize that the inflation has little to do with Democrats policies but is entirely because of COVID fucking everything.
- metalliqaz 5y ago
  ... which facilitates and end of free and fair elections in the US
  - krapp 5y ago
    Elections in the US have never been entirely free or fair.
    - JasonCannon 5y ago
      Sure but the GOP are pushing extremely hard to ensure that it's even more not fair and not free.
- trcarney 5y ago
  Last I checked, a virus doesn't effect the monetary system but shutting down the country for an extremely long "15 days" and then printing money to pay people who were "non-essential" and to keep the stock market up does. I guess it was COVID that created 40% of all US dollars in the last year. The GOP and Democrats are both to blame for this. I digress, I don't like either party's policies because every law enacted is a little bit more of your freedom taken away and the crazy printing of money is just another tax on the American people. States and cities are making out like bandits with this inflation. This is a pretty standard cycle in American politics. One party wins the presidency and the house, then the house flips in the midterm. The senate doesn't follows these trends because of how their terms work. [Edit] I found the 40% number in a news article but it didn't have sources. You can view the M1 money supply chart here, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=M1SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=M1SL. This chart shows why we are seeing higher levels of inflation.
300bps 5y ago
Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s. That's what the U.S. government needs. $29 trillion in debt paying $417 billion in interest per year = average interest of 1.43%. Now imagine average interest rate across the curve goes to 2.86% and now we're paying $834 billion in interest per year. Then it goes to 5% and we're paying $1.45 trillion in interest payments per year. That's over a third of the total tax revenue of the Federal government! More than we spend on defense! The U.S. government is so far in debt that it needs inflation to erase it. Nothing else will. So no surprise, the Federal Reserve balance sheet has grown to $8.5 trillion: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttren... The Fed continues to buy $120 billion in bonds per month, interest rates are close to zero, we're mailing checks out to people each month, we just approved $1 trillion in stimulus a few weeks ago and on the cusp of approving almost $2 trillion more.
- wbsss4412 5y ago
  *1 & 2 trillion over ten years. The actual addition to the federal budget isn’t that dramatic.
  - 300bps 5y ago
    Do you have any idea how much money a trillion dollars is? If you paid $1 per second, it would take you: 12 days to spend $1 million 32 years to spend $1 billion 32,000 years to spend $1 trillion Imagine spending $1 every second for 32,000 years. It's ridiculous! Yet we throw that number around like it "isn't that dramatic". We will never be able to pay off that borrowed money! And it will work until it doesn't. And then we will wish we were never so foolish.
    - wbsss4412 5y ago
      US GDP is over 23 trillion dollars on an annualized basis, what you’re saying lacks any sense of proportion. Even assuming no growth, 3 trillion dollars represents 1.3% of gdp over the same period. If you just want to throw large numbers around, why not just convert everything into cents? Imagine spending 1 cent per second for 3.2 million years! That’s a long time.
hackingforfun 5y ago
> Crypto will undergo a major crash in 2022. It follows predictable, cyclical patterns, and we are nearing the end of the classic boom/bust cycle. It is unclear whether this will cause the Tether situation to blow up. Crypto and stocks seem to be correlated at this point. Both are considered risk on assets by institutional buyers. I don't anticipate crypto to crash unless stocks start to crash. If the Fed keeps interest rates low and assets continue to rise, I think it's likely that crypto continues to rise as well. From what I've heard, there is likely to be heavy institutional buying in Q1 2022 as hedge funds and others who like to take risk will add risky assets at the start of the year.
- throw0101a 5y ago
  > Crypto and stocks seem to be correlated at this point. A bunch of folks from the Man Group and Campbell Harvey published a paper saying that Bitcoin specifically seems to have a positive beta with the US market: > Finally, we are in the midst of another technological disruption in the form of the cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin. Some have advocated the inclusion of bitcoin into a diversified portfolio as an inflation protection asset. However, caution is warranted given that bitcoin is untested with only eight years of quality data – that lack a single inflation regime. Moreover, bitcoin is more than five times more volatile than the S&P 500 or gold. This high volatility could lead to bitcoin being an unreliable hedge. In addition, there is increasing evidence that bitcoin is a speculative asset and it has a positive beta against the US market. * https://www.man.com/maninstitute/when-inflation-hits https://www.man.com/maninstitute/when-inflation-hits * https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3813202 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3813202 It's still early days, so more evidence certainly needs to be gathered, but so far as a hedge against inflation crypto doesn't look too good (especially because of volatility). And Campbell published a pro-DeFi book recently, so it's not like he's against crypto generally: * https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/57720429-defi-and-the-future-of-finance https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/57720429-defi-and-the-fu... * https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3711777 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3711777 * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campbell_Harvey https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campbell_Harvey
- paulpauper 5y ago
scyclow 5y ago
I'm inclined to say that the Fed keeps interest rates low _and_ crypto undergoes a major correction, but I feel like these are almost mutually exclusive scenarios. This isn't to say that crypto is inherently a good inflation hedge, but it definitely seems like the recent crypto bull run is a direct result of asset price inflation.
idrios 5y ago
- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s. - Crypto will undergo a major crash in 2022. It follows predictable, cyclical patterns, and we are nearing the end of the classic boom/bust cycle. It is unclear whether this will cause the Tether situation to blow up. If the first 2 happen, then I do not think crypto will crash. I'm fairly sure the reason it blew up this year was a combination of people being bored at home because of lockdown and people trying to protect against inflation.
- jeffreyrogers 5y ago
  Crypto can't be a real inflation hedge because it's not a productive asset (this is not a criticism). It may be going up because people are worried about inflation and so are moving some money to riskier assets that offer a higher return, but if inflation were to continue people would be forced to move their crypto assets to things like food, housing, equipment, that are actually productive, which would drive down the price of crypto.
  - idrios 5y ago
    This doesn't sound exactly right to me. "forced to move their crypto assets to things like [x]" just sounds like a different way to say "buy [x] with crypto" instead of with USD. Edit because I was downvoted: This genuinely goes against my intuition. The recommended alternatives were housing, food (don't know if the parent meant stock up on nonperishables or buy farmland & livestock), and equipment. This sounded like preparing for complete economic collapse. If that's the level of inflation we're talking about, then we have much bigger things to worry about than how crypto will be doing.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
  - AnimalMuppet 5y ago
nickthemagicman 5y ago
If the governments start locking down again Conservative states will see house prices rise.
- reaperducer 5y ago
  I think that will happen even without the lockdowns. The states that tend to lock down seem to also have the highest housing prices. And with millions now free to work from wherever they like, they will seek out cheaper shores. When I moved, someone at my old office said, "How can you stand to live in a state represented by Senator X?" I told him, "When Senator X picks up my dry cleaning or valets my car, I'll care. Until then, Senator X has zero bearing on my everyday life." I think people overestimate the weight that politics plays in selecting a place to live.
  - jonathanlb 5y ago
    It must be nice to belong to a demographic that is unaffected by politics.
    - Spivak 5y ago
      Yeah, the privilege is absolutely nuts. I've had to make very concrete plans to move if elections in my state ever starts to turn really red. I don't give two shits about most politics, but I have zero choice but huddle up against the Democrats because they're the only ones not actively trying to harm me and at least pay lip service to my issue. In the absence of R's treatment of minorities, stupid manufactured culture war wedge issues, and sudden onset bootlicking, I would probably be one. I don't get that choice though. Like the only thing that has kept me safe the past decade is my state supreme court and the ACLU.
      - 0des 5y ago
        Thinking about this as a red/blue issue was your first mistake.
    - reaperducer 5y ago
carnitine 5y ago
Low interest rates + nothing for higher earners to spend their money on supposedly leads to a crypto crash?
Spivak 5y ago
I think your last prediction is right, but targeting the wrong generation. The oldest Gen Z's are 25 which isn't old enough to be differentiated from the normal spending habits of broke young adults. It's the younger half of Millennials that are the ones to worry about because this would be the time where it's expected they would start having kids and buying houses and such but culturally they've got way more in common with Gen Z nihilistic anger than they do with Gen X or Boomers.
- kosmisk 5y ago
  You are so cute with your nihilistic anger, do you really think you can teach Gen X anything about that?
- anthk 5y ago
  Most oldest millenials/youngest Gen X don't give a shit on angst or everything. They just didn't care or rebel against their parents. They acted by doing the things they cared for, they didn't pose.
pjc50 5y ago
> Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s I'm quite happy to bet that inflation over the next year will be no more than 10%. I'd even take 5% at good odds. If it does hit that, it will do incredible things for my fixed-rate mortgage as well as my portfolio. No, I do not have significant "cash" savings. Otherwise I agree with your predictions. There may well be a crypto boom or two to go with the busts.
armchairhacker 5y ago
I really don't see us ever locking down again. If we do lock down, it will be a half-assed "lock down", even more half-assed than before. Or it would be because of an especially bad variant, and even then it would have to be actually coordinated and enforced or there would be mass riots. I feel guilty saying it, but most people are tired of lockdowns and will refuse even if it's the moral choice. If we lock down in 2022, what's to stop another lockdown in 2024 and in 2026 etc.? Imagine the mental health implications, especially on children and teenagers, whose entire childhood would be altered by covid. Imagine "who knows if we're going to have Christmas this year? We have to see the forecast for cases and hospitalizations", every year for every special event. People will celebrate Christmas and hang out and go to huge events or they will literally go insane. Also, there would be massive supply chain issues like you said. Possibly big enough to actually kill people. So now we have to actually weigh the casualties of lockdown vs the casualties of a virus. It was different in 2020. The lockdown in 2020 was designed to be short-term. It was also much more serious, because we had no idea just how dangerous covid was, and we actually had a chance of eradicating the disease entirely. That's why we could shut-down schools, cancel events planned years in advance, make court appointments virtual, and otherwise significantly alter critical parts of society. And even then, even in early 2020, there was a not-so-small vocal minority of people (idiots) who refused to believe covid existed. That's not to say we'll do nothing and assume covid is over. I do believe society can adjust to "stay safe" in the long-term with routine vaccination, mask-wearing in public spaces, and just being aware that covid exists. Also things like WVH and online classes (for those who want to take online) are here to stay. But people are not going to follow a "new normal" where every social interaction is weighed against the virus.
- AnimalMuppet 5y ago
  If there is a lockdown again, there had better not be high government officials ignoring it (especially ones who advocated for it). Otherwise, there will almost certainly be violence. We are done with hypocritical bigshots telling us what we have to do "for the greater good", and then deciding that they're too important for the rules to apply to them.
  - 5y ago
throw0101a 5y ago
> Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s. The (demand-pull) inflation of the 1970s started because there was many years of war spending because of the Vietnam War. Once that wound down, then there was (supply-push) inflation of OPEC's oil embargo. What we're seeing now is a sudden spike because of concentrated spending, much like happened due to the Korea War, where inflation lasted between 12-18 months: * https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/inflation-fears-and-biden-stimulus-look-korean-war-not-vietnam https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/in...
outside1234 5y ago
Holy cow - I had no idea what a mess the Tether situation was - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-10-07/crypto-mystery-where-s-the-69-billion-backing-the-stablecoin-tether https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-10-07/crypto-my...
anm89 5y ago
Curious as to why you are so confident there won't be any fallout from evergrande The Chinese economy is deeply dependent on real estate for GDP and tax revenue growth and appetite and liquidity is at an all time low.
- uejfiweun 5y ago
  Admittedly, I know very little about the economy, let alone the intricacies of the Chinese real estate market. But it seems that this whole situation is just a typical sky is falling media frenzy. I have seen so many stories over my life saying "oh THIS is the domino that will cause China to fall." But China remains a very powerful country, they are led by smart people, and I think these China collapse narratives definitely feel good to read in the West but that's all they are, feel-good pieces. My layman's understanding is that these companies are going to go bankrupt. The Chinese govt could easily solve the problem by simply bailing them out, but they haven't yet. But I think in the end China will just bail the companies out, and nothing will come of it.
  - anm89 5y ago
    I like you would absolutely admit there is a lot I don't know about China. I would say that that is a complicated enough topic where no person on the planet truly comprehensively understands it. However if you want to hear what I think is a really well stated case for why China's housing problem is more structural than it might appear on the surface I encourage you to check out this bit regarding how China's local governments utilize property prices via LGFVs to do off balance sheet financing off it's social security system and really it's entire economy. If you find it interesting the whole video and the whole 4 part series is really worth a watch: Housing Crisis — China's Reckoning (Part 2): https://youtu.be/EgVXRtq5EIg?t=1045 https://youtu.be/EgVXRtq5EIg?t=1045 I recommend you to change it to 2x speed. The reason Evergrande plays into this is not directly a Lehman like systemtic solvency issue IMO, it's a consumer confidence problem which indirectly leads to solvency issue. Regular Chinese citizens are seeing other regular Chinese citizens who pre paid on Evergrand units losing their shirts. Data already show's that housing demand and prices are already way down from pre Evergrande issues. I would argue if this translates into failures in the local government land auctions, China is basically instantly in a solvency crisis, which, it can deal with, but which will have major consequences.
herval 5y ago
I don’t want to sound contrarian, but my take on almost all of these is the exact opposite of yours. Was literally discussing a couple of those with a friend yesterday :) - COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and booster vaccines will follow. Most countries will restrict lockdowns only for the unvaccinated, as everyone accepts the “new normal” - The fed will keep interest rates low, but it won’t matter, as inflation picks up, earnings get slammed and stocks will either crash or trend completely sideways. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by China economy deceleration. Inflation will remain higher than we’ve seen in the past decade, but with a slowdown in consumption, will not go into hyperinflation levels. - Crypto will NOT undergo a major crash in 2022, contradicting the consensus it’s crashing any minute now. The large volume of “staked” coins and the Futurization of Bitcoin will prevent a full on crash, but will also prevent further 100x runs (at least for next year) - AR/VR metaverse type stuff will go big next year, from Apple to multiple Chinese brands launching their products. No megahit product will be announced though, and Apple’s entrant will get the same muted initial adoption the Apple Watch did (and be equally prototype-y) - China will officially start its perma-recession era, just like Japan in the 80s. China won’t invade Taiwan (yet). - GenZ digital consumerism remains on the rise, with the first series of Fortnite-exclusive Yeezys selling millions of copies. Robux credit cards get introduced, becoming one of the main forms of “banking” for many teens. The Digital Objects economy will start to get mainstream hype
bythckr 5y ago
> - The "lie-flat" movement massively picks up. This is a serious symptom that is being swept under the rug. Efforts needs to be put in to better understand the issue and enforce steps to resolve it. I lack the basic training in trying to understand the issue - sociology, psychology or whatever is the relevant field. But I feel that "lie-flat" is just an acute variant of the general issue - "checking out of reality". The other versions are "staying in echo chambers" and being incapable of even listening to different views. "Getting lost in other worlds" - the gamers that spend whole day in games like Fortnite or always flipping through videos in tik tok.
- chii 5y ago
  The fact that they could still live while "checking out of reality" means that those who are 'lying flat' are being supported by someone who is not doing so. It isn't a problem until there aren't enough people working, and too many people are 'lying flat', so much so that there's not enough food or necessities being produced and you get mass starvation.
- nowherebeen 5y ago
  > "checking out of reality". The lie-flat movement came about in response to the 996. Workers realized they were being worked to death in factories for little pay and opportunities to climb up society's ladder dried up. The older generation sees it as laziness but if you look at it from their perspective, its a natural conclusion. The only people that benefits from being overworked, little pay, and few opportunities are the owners (i.e. the older generation and their offspring). Both the lie-flat and 996 are two extreme ends of the same spectrum. I disagree that they are checking out of reality. I think they are looking at the reality of their economic situation and making a logical conclusion. They realized they could earn more per hour basis by working less and being more happy. It is very much the same situation happening right now in the US. Blue collar workers realize they no longer want to work as waiters, and rather spend time leveling up and becoming white collar. You have all these restaurant owners calling these people lazy while ignoring the fact they hardly pay a living wage.
  - massinstall 5y ago
spamfilter247 5y ago
TOO SOON!

JasonCannon 5y ago

>- Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s. Due to this, GOP is probably going to retake the house largely because people won't realize that the inflation has little to do with Democrats policies but is entirely because of COVID fucking everything.

metalliqaz 5y ago
... which facilitates and end of free and fair elections in the US
- krapp 5y ago
  Elections in the US have never been entirely free or fair.
  - JasonCannon 5y ago
    Sure but the GOP are pushing extremely hard to ensure that it's even more not fair and not free.
trcarney 5y ago
Last I checked, a virus doesn't effect the monetary system but shutting down the country for an extremely long "15 days" and then printing money to pay people who were "non-essential" and to keep the stock market up does. I guess it was COVID that created 40% of all US dollars in the last year. The GOP and Democrats are both to blame for this. I digress, I don't like either party's policies because every law enacted is a little bit more of your freedom taken away and the crazy printing of money is just another tax on the American people. States and cities are making out like bandits with this inflation. This is a pretty standard cycle in American politics. One party wins the presidency and the house, then the house flips in the midterm. The senate doesn't follows these trends because of how their terms work. [Edit] I found the 40% number in a news article but it didn't have sources. You can view the M1 money supply chart here, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=M1SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=M1SL. This chart shows why we are seeing higher levels of inflation.

300bps 5y ago

Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s. That's what the U.S. government needs. $29 trillion in debt paying $417 billion in interest per year = average interest of 1.43%. Now imagine average interest rate across the curve goes to 2.86% and now we're paying $834 billion in interest per year. Then it goes to 5% and we're paying $1.45 trillion in interest payments per year. That's over a third of the total tax revenue of the Federal government! More than we spend on defense! The U.S. government is so far in debt that it needs inflation to erase it. Nothing else will. So no surprise, the Federal Reserve balance sheet has grown to $8.5 trillion: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttren... The Fed continues to buy $120 billion in bonds per month, interest rates are close to zero, we're mailing checks out to people each month, we just approved $1 trillion in stimulus a few weeks ago and on the cusp of approving almost $2 trillion more.

wbsss4412 5y ago
*1 & 2 trillion over ten years. The actual addition to the federal budget isn’t that dramatic.
- 300bps 5y ago
  Do you have any idea how much money a trillion dollars is? If you paid $1 per second, it would take you: 12 days to spend $1 million 32 years to spend $1 billion 32,000 years to spend $1 trillion Imagine spending $1 every second for 32,000 years. It's ridiculous! Yet we throw that number around like it "isn't that dramatic". We will never be able to pay off that borrowed money! And it will work until it doesn't. And then we will wish we were never so foolish.
  - wbsss4412 5y ago
    US GDP is over 23 trillion dollars on an annualized basis, what you’re saying lacks any sense of proportion. Even assuming no growth, 3 trillion dollars represents 1.3% of gdp over the same period. If you just want to throw large numbers around, why not just convert everything into cents? Imagine spending 1 cent per second for 3.2 million years! That’s a long time.

hackingforfun 5y ago

> Crypto will undergo a major crash in 2022. It follows predictable, cyclical patterns, and we are nearing the end of the classic boom/bust cycle. It is unclear whether this will cause the Tether situation to blow up. Crypto and stocks seem to be correlated at this point. Both are considered risk on assets by institutional buyers. I don't anticipate crypto to crash unless stocks start to crash. If the Fed keeps interest rates low and assets continue to rise, I think it's likely that crypto continues to rise as well. From what I've heard, there is likely to be heavy institutional buying in Q1 2022 as hedge funds and others who like to take risk will add risky assets at the start of the year.

throw0101a 5y ago
> Crypto and stocks seem to be correlated at this point. A bunch of folks from the Man Group and Campbell Harvey published a paper saying that Bitcoin specifically seems to have a positive beta with the US market: > Finally, we are in the midst of another technological disruption in the form of the cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin. Some have advocated the inclusion of bitcoin into a diversified portfolio as an inflation protection asset. However, caution is warranted given that bitcoin is untested with only eight years of quality data – that lack a single inflation regime. Moreover, bitcoin is more than five times more volatile than the S&P 500 or gold. This high volatility could lead to bitcoin being an unreliable hedge. In addition, there is increasing evidence that bitcoin is a speculative asset and it has a positive beta against the US market. * https://www.man.com/maninstitute/when-inflation-hits https://www.man.com/maninstitute/when-inflation-hits * https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3813202 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3813202 It's still early days, so more evidence certainly needs to be gathered, but so far as a hedge against inflation crypto doesn't look too good (especially because of volatility). And Campbell published a pro-DeFi book recently, so it's not like he's against crypto generally: * https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/57720429-defi-and-the-future-of-finance https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/57720429-defi-and-the-fu... * https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3711777 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3711777 * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campbell_Harvey https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campbell_Harvey
paulpauper 5y ago

scyclow 5y ago

I'm inclined to say that the Fed keeps interest rates low _and_ crypto undergoes a major correction, but I feel like these are almost mutually exclusive scenarios. This isn't to say that crypto is inherently a good inflation hedge, but it definitely seems like the recent crypto bull run is a direct result of asset price inflation.

idrios 5y ago

- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s. - Crypto will undergo a major crash in 2022. It follows predictable, cyclical patterns, and we are nearing the end of the classic boom/bust cycle. It is unclear whether this will cause the Tether situation to blow up. If the first 2 happen, then I do not think crypto will crash. I'm fairly sure the reason it blew up this year was a combination of people being bored at home because of lockdown and people trying to protect against inflation.

jeffreyrogers 5y ago
Crypto can't be a real inflation hedge because it's not a productive asset (this is not a criticism). It may be going up because people are worried about inflation and so are moving some money to riskier assets that offer a higher return, but if inflation were to continue people would be forced to move their crypto assets to things like food, housing, equipment, that are actually productive, which would drive down the price of crypto.
- idrios 5y ago
  This doesn't sound exactly right to me. "forced to move their crypto assets to things like [x]" just sounds like a different way to say "buy [x] with crypto" instead of with USD. Edit because I was downvoted: This genuinely goes against my intuition. The recommended alternatives were housing, food (don't know if the parent meant stock up on nonperishables or buy farmland & livestock), and equipment. This sounded like preparing for complete economic collapse. If that's the level of inflation we're talking about, then we have much bigger things to worry about than how crypto will be doing.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- AnimalMuppet 5y ago

nickthemagicman 5y ago

If the governments start locking down again Conservative states will see house prices rise.

reaperducer 5y ago
I think that will happen even without the lockdowns. The states that tend to lock down seem to also have the highest housing prices. And with millions now free to work from wherever they like, they will seek out cheaper shores. When I moved, someone at my old office said, "How can you stand to live in a state represented by Senator X?" I told him, "When Senator X picks up my dry cleaning or valets my car, I'll care. Until then, Senator X has zero bearing on my everyday life." I think people overestimate the weight that politics plays in selecting a place to live.
- jonathanlb 5y ago
  It must be nice to belong to a demographic that is unaffected by politics.
  - Spivak 5y ago
    Yeah, the privilege is absolutely nuts. I've had to make very concrete plans to move if elections in my state ever starts to turn really red. I don't give two shits about most politics, but I have zero choice but huddle up against the Democrats because they're the only ones not actively trying to harm me and at least pay lip service to my issue. In the absence of R's treatment of minorities, stupid manufactured culture war wedge issues, and sudden onset bootlicking, I would probably be one. I don't get that choice though. Like the only thing that has kept me safe the past decade is my state supreme court and the ACLU.
    - 0des 5y ago
      Thinking about this as a red/blue issue was your first mistake.
  - reaperducer 5y ago

carnitine 5y ago

Low interest rates + nothing for higher earners to spend their money on supposedly leads to a crypto crash?

Spivak 5y ago

I think your last prediction is right, but targeting the wrong generation. The oldest Gen Z's are 25 which isn't old enough to be differentiated from the normal spending habits of broke young adults. It's the younger half of Millennials that are the ones to worry about because this would be the time where it's expected they would start having kids and buying houses and such but culturally they've got way more in common with Gen Z nihilistic anger than they do with Gen X or Boomers.

kosmisk 5y ago
You are so cute with your nihilistic anger, do you really think you can teach Gen X anything about that?
anthk 5y ago
Most oldest millenials/youngest Gen X don't give a shit on angst or everything. They just didn't care or rebel against their parents. They acted by doing the things they cared for, they didn't pose.

pjc50 5y ago

> Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s I'm quite happy to bet that inflation over the next year will be no more than 10%. I'd even take 5% at good odds. If it does hit that, it will do incredible things for my fixed-rate mortgage as well as my portfolio. No, I do not have significant "cash" savings. Otherwise I agree with your predictions. There may well be a crypto boom or two to go with the busts.

armchairhacker 5y ago

I really don't see us ever locking down again. If we do lock down, it will be a half-assed "lock down", even more half-assed than before. Or it would be because of an especially bad variant, and even then it would have to be actually coordinated and enforced or there would be mass riots. I feel guilty saying it, but most people are tired of lockdowns and will refuse even if it's the moral choice. If we lock down in 2022, what's to stop another lockdown in 2024 and in 2026 etc.? Imagine the mental health implications, especially on children and teenagers, whose entire childhood would be altered by covid. Imagine "who knows if we're going to have Christmas this year? We have to see the forecast for cases and hospitalizations", every year for every special event. People will celebrate Christmas and hang out and go to huge events or they will literally go insane. Also, there would be massive supply chain issues like you said. Possibly big enough to actually kill people. So now we have to actually weigh the casualties of lockdown vs the casualties of a virus. It was different in 2020. The lockdown in 2020 was designed to be short-term. It was also much more serious, because we had no idea just how dangerous covid was, and we actually had a chance of eradicating the disease entirely. That's why we could shut-down schools, cancel events planned years in advance, make court appointments virtual, and otherwise significantly alter critical parts of society. And even then, even in early 2020, there was a not-so-small vocal minority of people (idiots) who refused to believe covid existed. That's not to say we'll do nothing and assume covid is over. I do believe society can adjust to "stay safe" in the long-term with routine vaccination, mask-wearing in public spaces, and just being aware that covid exists. Also things like WVH and online classes (for those who want to take online) are here to stay. But people are not going to follow a "new normal" where every social interaction is weighed against the virus.

AnimalMuppet 5y ago
If there is a lockdown again, there had better not be high government officials ignoring it (especially ones who advocated for it). Otherwise, there will almost certainly be violence. We are done with hypocritical bigshots telling us what we have to do "for the greater good", and then deciding that they're too important for the rules to apply to them.
- 5y ago

throw0101a 5y ago

> Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s. The (demand-pull) inflation of the 1970s started because there was many years of war spending because of the Vietnam War. Once that wound down, then there was (supply-push) inflation of OPEC's oil embargo. What we're seeing now is a sudden spike because of concentrated spending, much like happened due to the Korea War, where inflation lasted between 12-18 months: * https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/inflation-fears-and-biden-stimulus-look-korean-war-not-vietnam https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/in...

outside1234 5y ago

Holy cow - I had no idea what a mess the Tether situation was - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-10-07/crypto-mystery-where-s-the-69-billion-backing-the-stablecoin-tether https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-10-07/crypto-my...

anm89 5y ago

Curious as to why you are so confident there won't be any fallout from evergrande The Chinese economy is deeply dependent on real estate for GDP and tax revenue growth and appetite and liquidity is at an all time low.

uejfiweun 5y ago
Admittedly, I know very little about the economy, let alone the intricacies of the Chinese real estate market. But it seems that this whole situation is just a typical sky is falling media frenzy. I have seen so many stories over my life saying "oh THIS is the domino that will cause China to fall." But China remains a very powerful country, they are led by smart people, and I think these China collapse narratives definitely feel good to read in the West but that's all they are, feel-good pieces. My layman's understanding is that these companies are going to go bankrupt. The Chinese govt could easily solve the problem by simply bailing them out, but they haven't yet. But I think in the end China will just bail the companies out, and nothing will come of it.
- anm89 5y ago
  I like you would absolutely admit there is a lot I don't know about China. I would say that that is a complicated enough topic where no person on the planet truly comprehensively understands it. However if you want to hear what I think is a really well stated case for why China's housing problem is more structural than it might appear on the surface I encourage you to check out this bit regarding how China's local governments utilize property prices via LGFVs to do off balance sheet financing off it's social security system and really it's entire economy. If you find it interesting the whole video and the whole 4 part series is really worth a watch: Housing Crisis — China's Reckoning (Part 2): https://youtu.be/EgVXRtq5EIg?t=1045 https://youtu.be/EgVXRtq5EIg?t=1045 I recommend you to change it to 2x speed. The reason Evergrande plays into this is not directly a Lehman like systemtic solvency issue IMO, it's a consumer confidence problem which indirectly leads to solvency issue. Regular Chinese citizens are seeing other regular Chinese citizens who pre paid on Evergrand units losing their shirts. Data already show's that housing demand and prices are already way down from pre Evergrande issues. I would argue if this translates into failures in the local government land auctions, China is basically instantly in a solvency crisis, which, it can deal with, but which will have major consequences.

herval 5y ago

I don’t want to sound contrarian, but my take on almost all of these is the exact opposite of yours. Was literally discussing a couple of those with a friend yesterday :) - COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and booster vaccines will follow. Most countries will restrict lockdowns only for the unvaccinated, as everyone accepts the “new normal” - The fed will keep interest rates low, but it won’t matter, as inflation picks up, earnings get slammed and stocks will either crash or trend completely sideways. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by China economy deceleration. Inflation will remain higher than we’ve seen in the past decade, but with a slowdown in consumption, will not go into hyperinflation levels. - Crypto will NOT undergo a major crash in 2022, contradicting the consensus it’s crashing any minute now. The large volume of “staked” coins and the Futurization of Bitcoin will prevent a full on crash, but will also prevent further 100x runs (at least for next year) - AR/VR metaverse type stuff will go big next year, from Apple to multiple Chinese brands launching their products. No megahit product will be announced though, and Apple’s entrant will get the same muted initial adoption the Apple Watch did (and be equally prototype-y) - China will officially start its perma-recession era, just like Japan in the 80s. China won’t invade Taiwan (yet). - GenZ digital consumerism remains on the rise, with the first series of Fortnite-exclusive Yeezys selling millions of copies. Robux credit cards get introduced, becoming one of the main forms of “banking” for many teens. The Digital Objects economy will start to get mainstream hype

bythckr 5y ago

> - The "lie-flat" movement massively picks up. This is a serious symptom that is being swept under the rug. Efforts needs to be put in to better understand the issue and enforce steps to resolve it. I lack the basic training in trying to understand the issue - sociology, psychology or whatever is the relevant field. But I feel that "lie-flat" is just an acute variant of the general issue - "checking out of reality". The other versions are "staying in echo chambers" and being incapable of even listening to different views. "Getting lost in other worlds" - the gamers that spend whole day in games like Fortnite or always flipping through videos in tik tok.

chii 5y ago
The fact that they could still live while "checking out of reality" means that those who are 'lying flat' are being supported by someone who is not doing so. It isn't a problem until there aren't enough people working, and too many people are 'lying flat', so much so that there's not enough food or necessities being produced and you get mass starvation.
nowherebeen 5y ago
> "checking out of reality". The lie-flat movement came about in response to the 996. Workers realized they were being worked to death in factories for little pay and opportunities to climb up society's ladder dried up. The older generation sees it as laziness but if you look at it from their perspective, its a natural conclusion. The only people that benefits from being overworked, little pay, and few opportunities are the owners (i.e. the older generation and their offspring). Both the lie-flat and 996 are two extreme ends of the same spectrum. I disagree that they are checking out of reality. I think they are looking at the reality of their economic situation and making a logical conclusion. They realized they could earn more per hour basis by working less and being more happy. It is very much the same situation happening right now in the US. Blue collar workers realize they no longer want to work as waiters, and rather spend time leveling up and becoming white collar. You have all these restaurant owners calling these people lazy while ignoring the fact they hardly pay a living wage.
- massinstall 5y ago

spamfilter247 5y ago

TOO SOON!