3 ms·

> 11% (just adopting the number from your comment, no idea if that is the real figure) is huge. It would turn a spread 1.05 into one of 0.94 assuming that numbe

by timr 5y ago

> 11% (just adopting the number from your comment, no idea if that is the real figure) is huge. It would turn a spread 1.05 into one of 0.94 assuming that number has a direct impact like that. No, because that's not what the 11% number was measuring. You can't just take an 11% relative reduction in population seroprevalence at a given time, and then blindly multiply the virus R0 by that factor. They observed a drop in symptomatic seroprevalence that corresponded to about 1 case for for every 1300 people who wore a mask. That is nowhere near an 11% drop in R0 (which you'll recall is an exponent). > That's exactly what is wrong with all these discussions, the cost of wearing a mask is negligible compared the potential cost of not wearing a mask: How do you know? Have you measured it? No, of course you haven't. You're just asserting things. > so wear a mask. It doesn't matter if it is proven to help yet or not, the fact that it may help and won't harm is the only thing that matters when deciding whether or not you should wear one. Fine. You should take Ivermectin, then. And vitamin D. And flush your sinuses daily with a neti pot. And get your chakra aligned. It's essentially the same argument. Can't hurt, might help! By your logic, it all must be done. ...or do you just pick-and-choose which unsupported interventions you prefer to believe in? (for the record: I do not believe you should take Ivermectin. But it is the same argument.) > the evidence quality for Ivermectin is substantially lower than that, It really isn't. Just like mask studies, there are a few weakly suggestive good ones, and a few bad ones that make ridiculous claims, and a whole lot of nonsense in between. > there are substantial downsides to using it in quantity. No, not really. It's a pretty common, safe drug. We probably know more about the downsides of Ivermectin than we do about the downsides of (say) masking young children in school.

jacquesm 5y ago
You are arguing the letter and not the intent, as you've done in many of these threads before. You are also continuously seeking reasons to justify the way you have already decided you want to go about this, so effectively you are just arguing for your own satisfaction, not to gain insight. Your arguments by assertion hold no water for me. Good luck with this attitude.
- zpeti 5y ago
  No, he's not. Ivermectin is one of the safest drugs on the planet. As evidence was emerging that in some studies it MIGHT work, people should have been taking it, just like masks. Because why not? Risks are low, and it might work. If you are arguing anything else than you aren't actually being consistent in your reasoning.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    It is, but it isn't going to work against COVID, period. That people take it is their problem, the only study that showed actual anti-viral effects was at several times the recommended dose for people and that was in vitro. Risks are also low for eating 50 Kg of bananas, it might cure COVID, so why not try it? This sort of reasoning is complete nonsense when it comes to picking your medications. The null hypothesis is "it does not work". Then you carefully design a study to take care of all the variables, you do your double blind test with a placebo and you look at outcomes. That's the standard. Anything less simply won't do. 'Might work' isn't a reason for (self) prescription. As for mask effectiveness: they work, there is ongoing debate over how much they work. Like everything else in terms of countermeasures, absolutely nothing will be a 100% sure filter so we layer multiple filters on top of each other to improve the degree of protection we achieve, aka the cheese model.
    - timr 5y ago
      > It is, but it isn't going to work against COVID, period. It's interesting how you say that so definitively, when there are multiple, large RCTs ongoing, evaluating the question. Perhaps you're substituting your opinions for science? > The null hypothesis is "it does not work". Then you carefully design a study to take care of all the variables, you do your double blind test with a placebo and you look at outcomes. That's the standard. > As for mask effectiveness: they work, there is ongoing debate over how much they work. Funny how "the standard" shifts from topic to topic, sentence to sentence. When it's an intervention you support, the presumption is positive, even if the collective evidence of effect is...mixed, at best.
NoPie 5y ago
Scott Alexander thinks that ivermectin might work in places where people have a lot of worm infections: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ivermectin-much-more-than-you-wanted https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ivermectin-much-more-t... Somehow I start to suspect that masks might have a similar effectiveness that are dependant on climate, air humidity and widespread co-infections. Maybe not effective against covid but might prevent other infections that ultimately make covid worse or make them more susceptible to covid.

by timr 5y ago

jacquesm 5y ago

You are arguing the letter and not the intent, as you've done in many of these threads before. You are also continuously seeking reasons to justify the way you have already decided you want to go about this, so effectively you are just arguing for your own satisfaction, not to gain insight. Your arguments by assertion hold no water for me. Good luck with this attitude.

zpeti 5y ago
No, he's not. Ivermectin is one of the safest drugs on the planet. As evidence was emerging that in some studies it MIGHT work, people should have been taking it, just like masks. Because why not? Risks are low, and it might work. If you are arguing anything else than you aren't actually being consistent in your reasoning.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  It is, but it isn't going to work against COVID, period. That people take it is their problem, the only study that showed actual anti-viral effects was at several times the recommended dose for people and that was in vitro. Risks are also low for eating 50 Kg of bananas, it might cure COVID, so why not try it? This sort of reasoning is complete nonsense when it comes to picking your medications. The null hypothesis is "it does not work". Then you carefully design a study to take care of all the variables, you do your double blind test with a placebo and you look at outcomes. That's the standard. Anything less simply won't do. 'Might work' isn't a reason for (self) prescription. As for mask effectiveness: they work, there is ongoing debate over how much they work. Like everything else in terms of countermeasures, absolutely nothing will be a 100% sure filter so we layer multiple filters on top of each other to improve the degree of protection we achieve, aka the cheese model.
  - timr 5y ago
    > It is, but it isn't going to work against COVID, period. It's interesting how you say that so definitively, when there are multiple, large RCTs ongoing, evaluating the question. Perhaps you're substituting your opinions for science? > The null hypothesis is "it does not work". Then you carefully design a study to take care of all the variables, you do your double blind test with a placebo and you look at outcomes. That's the standard. > As for mask effectiveness: they work, there is ongoing debate over how much they work. Funny how "the standard" shifts from topic to topic, sentence to sentence. When it's an intervention you support, the presumption is positive, even if the collective evidence of effect is...mixed, at best.

NoPie 5y ago

Scott Alexander thinks that ivermectin might work in places where people have a lot of worm infections: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ivermectin-much-more-than-you-wanted https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ivermectin-much-more-t... Somehow I start to suspect that masks might have a similar effectiveness that are dependant on climate, air humidity and widespread co-infections. Maybe not effective against covid but might prevent other infections that ultimately make covid worse or make them more susceptible to covid.