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This is certifably false when it comes to covid and the flu: according to Johns Hopkins University, about 3.1 million people around the world had died of COV

This is certifably false when it comes to covid and the flu: according to Johns Hopkins University, about 3.1 million people around the world had died of COVID-19 as of April 26, 2021. The flu, meanwhile, kills between 290,000 to 650,000 people every year worldwide, according to the World Health Organization.

gfodor 5y ago
A 5x difference largely skewed towards the elderly and obese fits the definition of “comparable”, but ofc this is assumed to be a downplaying tactic.
- himinlomax 5y ago
  The flu also kills mostly the elderly and sick. In fact I get the impression that it does so more than Covid does.
- bastardoperator 5y ago
  It is when you look at the flu data. You think the flu kills more people on average? It doesn't, and most people that die from the flu are also elderly or have pre-existing conditions.
  - throwaway0a5e 5y ago
    Your comment is going to age like skim milk. Covid killed so many people because it was novel. It'll likely decline year over year as the population either develops antibodies or dies (of covid or natural causes).
    - bastardoperator 5y ago
      "likely" That doesn't sound very confident...
      - spurgu 5y ago
        Actually it does.
  - BlueTemplar 5y ago
    There are also big reccurent flu events, like the "Hong Kong" 1968-1969 flu that caused between 1 and 4 million deaths (with half worldwide population compared to today). In fact, supposedly the analysis of just how bad that flu epidemic had been (and how it had been largely ignored) is what basically created the postmodern version of the practice of epidemiology we still use today ?
    - carlmr 5y ago
      This is also something I think is interesting. Covid is from a corona virus strain, but we have many corona viruses circulating already. With the flu every few decades we get a really bad strain. So if you compare the worst corona strain we know with the average flu strain, it's a bit of a biased comparison.
Grim-444 5y ago
Using the very numbers you posted, covid is then between 4.7 and 10.6 times deadlier than the flu. If your covid number is the total from the last two years, then it's 2.3 to 5.3 times deadlier than the flu. You don't think it's valid to draw a comparison between the two? Also those rates would be artificially high, as the elderly, who are overwhemingly the ones vulnerable to both viruses, had a yearly shot to protect them from the flu, but not from covid, until recently. Now that the vulnerable also have a layer of protection from covid as well, that multiple will drop much lower.
- mlac 5y ago
  You’re completely discounting the whole economic shutdown, masking, and social distancing that took place with COVID? Even with that, it was 2.3-5.3 deadlier in your estimation. With those countermeasures, the flu season last year was “unusually low throughout the 2020-2021 flu season both in the United States and globally, despite high levels of testing … The low level of flu activity during this past season contributed to dramatically fewer flu illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths compared with previous flu seasons. For comparison, during the last three seasons before the pandemic, the proportion of respiratory specimens testing positive for influenza peaked between 26.2% and 30.3%. In terms of hospitalizations, the cumulative rate of laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalizations in the 2020-2021 season was the lowest recorded since this type of data collection began in 2005. For pediatric deaths, CDC received one report of a pediatric flu death in a child during the 2020–2021 flu season. Since flu deaths in children became nationally notifiable in 2004, reported flu deaths in children had previously ranged from a low of 37 (during 2011-2012) to a high of 199 (during 2019-2020).“ It’s apples to oranges, but I’d take the Flu over COVID. Because we do have natural immunity and we do have better established vaccines for it. [1] From the CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/season/faq-flu-season-2020-2021.htm#anchor_1627000307956 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/season/faq-flu-season-2020-2021.htm#...
  - mlac 5y ago
    I didn’t even quote the most relevant part - “During September 28, 2020–May 22, 2021 in the United States, 1,675 (0.2%) of 818,939 respiratory specimens tested by U.S. clinical laboratories were positive for an influenza virus”. 0.2% compared to as high as 30%. So we had 150x reduction in the flu’s prevalence last year from distancing measures. Not saying COVID would have been 150x worse than what we experienced, but it would have been far, far worse than the Flu without the mitigation efforts if you want to try to treat them equally. It was objectively much worse than the Flu last year, not even close. The positive test rate in Oklahoma is >50%![1], but to be fair somewhere between 5-10% looks like average across states. Oklahoma may have limited tests available and/or only test severe cases… Or they are somehow better at testing than other places in the country. [1] https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/states-ranked-by-covid-19-test-positivity-rates-july-14.html https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/states-r...
tigershark 5y ago
These estimates are bullshit. Only in India there are 4.5M excess deaths.
- elzbardico 5y ago
  Given the fragility of their population, famine alone from lockdowns could possibly explain that. Also, this 4 millions study was a laughable hedgepog of disparate data and unwarranted assumptions, basically pseudo-science from economists.
jjk166 5y ago
That's comparing covid without vaccine or widespread natural immunity to flu with vaccine and widespread natural immunity. Consider the 1918 flu pandemic where people were unprotected against a new strain and 1-3% of the world's population died.
skocznymroczny 5y ago
Depends on the definition of deaths. Most people don't get tested for flu. Also, in many cases, died of covid means "had a positive test result within two weeks of death". That's ignoring the dubious reliability of PCR tests in general.
- annexrichmond 5y ago
  Hi, I am curious, can you elaborate on the "dubious reliability of PCR tests"? Also, what do you mean by "in many cases" here. Like let's say if you are admitted to a hospital after a gun shot wound and happened to have Covid and die the next day due to the injury -- is it a Covid death?
  - spurgu 5y ago
    Depends. I'm know that this is how it's counted in Finland at least. If a person dies within 30 days of getting tested positive for Covid it's counted as a "Covid death".
- ajvs 5y ago
  It's actually within 30 days according to WHO guidelines, so more than twice the duration.

gfodor 5y ago

A 5x difference largely skewed towards the elderly and obese fits the definition of “comparable”, but ofc this is assumed to be a downplaying tactic.

himinlomax 5y ago
The flu also kills mostly the elderly and sick. In fact I get the impression that it does so more than Covid does.
bastardoperator 5y ago
It is when you look at the flu data. You think the flu kills more people on average? It doesn't, and most people that die from the flu are also elderly or have pre-existing conditions.
- throwaway0a5e 5y ago
  Your comment is going to age like skim milk. Covid killed so many people because it was novel. It'll likely decline year over year as the population either develops antibodies or dies (of covid or natural causes).
  - bastardoperator 5y ago
    "likely" That doesn't sound very confident...
    - spurgu 5y ago
      Actually it does.
- BlueTemplar 5y ago
  There are also big reccurent flu events, like the "Hong Kong" 1968-1969 flu that caused between 1 and 4 million deaths (with half worldwide population compared to today). In fact, supposedly the analysis of just how bad that flu epidemic had been (and how it had been largely ignored) is what basically created the postmodern version of the practice of epidemiology we still use today ?
  - carlmr 5y ago
    This is also something I think is interesting. Covid is from a corona virus strain, but we have many corona viruses circulating already. With the flu every few decades we get a really bad strain. So if you compare the worst corona strain we know with the average flu strain, it's a bit of a biased comparison.

Grim-444 5y ago

Using the very numbers you posted, covid is then between 4.7 and 10.6 times deadlier than the flu. If your covid number is the total from the last two years, then it's 2.3 to 5.3 times deadlier than the flu. You don't think it's valid to draw a comparison between the two? Also those rates would be artificially high, as the elderly, who are overwhemingly the ones vulnerable to both viruses, had a yearly shot to protect them from the flu, but not from covid, until recently. Now that the vulnerable also have a layer of protection from covid as well, that multiple will drop much lower.

mlac 5y ago
You’re completely discounting the whole economic shutdown, masking, and social distancing that took place with COVID? Even with that, it was 2.3-5.3 deadlier in your estimation. With those countermeasures, the flu season last year was “unusually low throughout the 2020-2021 flu season both in the United States and globally, despite high levels of testing … The low level of flu activity during this past season contributed to dramatically fewer flu illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths compared with previous flu seasons. For comparison, during the last three seasons before the pandemic, the proportion of respiratory specimens testing positive for influenza peaked between 26.2% and 30.3%. In terms of hospitalizations, the cumulative rate of laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalizations in the 2020-2021 season was the lowest recorded since this type of data collection began in 2005. For pediatric deaths, CDC received one report of a pediatric flu death in a child during the 2020–2021 flu season. Since flu deaths in children became nationally notifiable in 2004, reported flu deaths in children had previously ranged from a low of 37 (during 2011-2012) to a high of 199 (during 2019-2020).“ It’s apples to oranges, but I’d take the Flu over COVID. Because we do have natural immunity and we do have better established vaccines for it. [1] From the CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/season/faq-flu-season-2020-2021.htm#anchor_1627000307956 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/season/faq-flu-season-2020-2021.htm#...
- mlac 5y ago
  I didn’t even quote the most relevant part - “During September 28, 2020–May 22, 2021 in the United States, 1,675 (0.2%) of 818,939 respiratory specimens tested by U.S. clinical laboratories were positive for an influenza virus”. 0.2% compared to as high as 30%. So we had 150x reduction in the flu’s prevalence last year from distancing measures. Not saying COVID would have been 150x worse than what we experienced, but it would have been far, far worse than the Flu without the mitigation efforts if you want to try to treat them equally. It was objectively much worse than the Flu last year, not even close. The positive test rate in Oklahoma is >50%![1], but to be fair somewhere between 5-10% looks like average across states. Oklahoma may have limited tests available and/or only test severe cases… Or they are somehow better at testing than other places in the country. [1] https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/states-ranked-by-covid-19-test-positivity-rates-july-14.html https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/states-r...

tigershark 5y ago

These estimates are bullshit. Only in India there are 4.5M excess deaths.

elzbardico 5y ago
Given the fragility of their population, famine alone from lockdowns could possibly explain that. Also, this 4 millions study was a laughable hedgepog of disparate data and unwarranted assumptions, basically pseudo-science from economists.

jjk166 5y ago

That's comparing covid without vaccine or widespread natural immunity to flu with vaccine and widespread natural immunity. Consider the 1918 flu pandemic where people were unprotected against a new strain and 1-3% of the world's population died.

skocznymroczny 5y ago

Depends on the definition of deaths. Most people don't get tested for flu. Also, in many cases, died of covid means "had a positive test result within two weeks of death". That's ignoring the dubious reliability of PCR tests in general.

annexrichmond 5y ago
Hi, I am curious, can you elaborate on the "dubious reliability of PCR tests"? Also, what do you mean by "in many cases" here. Like let's say if you are admitted to a hospital after a gun shot wound and happened to have Covid and die the next day due to the injury -- is it a Covid death?
- spurgu 5y ago
  Depends. I'm know that this is how it's counted in Finland at least. If a person dies within 30 days of getting tested positive for Covid it's counted as a "Covid death".
ajvs 5y ago
It's actually within 30 days according to WHO guidelines, so more than twice the duration.