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Fwiw, the large majority (~70%) of divorces are initiated by women in the US. Most divorces are not caused by cancer, and the advantage men have in re-marrying

Fwiw, the large majority (~70%) of divorces are initiated by women in the US. Most divorces are not caused by cancer, and the advantage men have in re-marrying later are known and appreciated. So I think we can take the fact that most divorces are initiated by women as prima facie evidence that women recover better from divorces.

me_im_counting 5y ago
It’s interesting how my comment seems to be taken as an assertion in the opposite direction: that women have it categorically worse in divorce. I believe that reality is much, much more nuanced than either “direction”. That being said, who files is not a perfect signal. I know a few women who filed when it was in reality the husband who ended the marriage.
- jessriedel 5y ago
  No one is making categorical claims, nor is any signal perfect. But you questioned whether men are worse hit by divorce, and I offered some evidence that they are.
ximeng 5y ago
It could equally be seen as evidence that staying in a bad marriage is worse for women than for men, so women will risk more to escape that scenario. (Presumably people file because they expect a better life outcome for themselves from divorce than from not divorcing. This could be because they expect a better outcome due to divorce, as you say; or that they expect a worse outcome if they don't divorce, which is my alternative possible interpretation. I'm neutral on which is actually the case.)
- jessriedel 5y ago
  To expect a better outcome with divorce is to expect a worse outcome without divorce.
  - ximeng 5y ago
    Suppose a guy and a girl married are both 5/10 in happiness, and that if they divorce they will be 2/10 in happiness for five years, then will recover. Scenario 1 The woman and the man expect their happiness in marriage to stay around 5/10. After five years of divorce they have recovered a bit, but the woman recovers more and is now 6/10 but the man is 4/10. Scenario 2 An alternative is that even though they are both 5/10 in happiness to start with, the woman's expected future happiness in the marriage after five years is only 3/10 while the man's is still 5/10. Suppose they divorce and both recover the same to 4/10 after five years. Analysis In both scenarios after five years the woman will be happier if she divorces, and it may make sense for her to file for divorce depending on her risk tolerance. Woman filing for divorce more could be evidence for scenario 1, which is my interpretation of your post. It could also be evidence for scenario 2, which is incompatible with your interpretation. It is not so simple to say that more filing is evidence for a better recovery for women.
    - jessriedel 5y ago
      > Woman filing for divorce more could be evidence for scenario 1, which is my interpretation of your post. This is not what I intended. I was just trying to counter the suggestion by me_im_counting that men are likely to do better following divorce because of reasons like (according to him) men find it easier to remarry, women are more likely to keep the kids, and men divorce in response to cancer. All of those, as explanations, are in tension with the fact that men are less likely to be initiating divorce.
      - ximeng 5y ago
        So following a divorce there are a number of factors that affect people's long term happiness: possibility of remarrying, quality of time spent to kids, amount of income lost due to childcare and amount of income paid to ex-spouse, and so on. We can assume overall these tend to impact men and women differently, with for example women tending to get more access to kids but losing income as they spend time on childcare, and men tending to pay more to their ex-wives and losing time with the kids. You argue that women gain more from divorce than men overall as women are the ones who file for divorce in the majority of cases. Let's accept for the sake of argument that women do relatively better out of divorces all things considered. The explanation for this could be good post-divorce outcomes for women, which are the factors above such as ease of remarrying or custody. This is what I see as the core of your argument. An alternative explanation might be that in a bad marriage, women are in a particularly vulnerable position relative to men. In that case even with worse outcomes from divorce for women, it might still make sense for women to file for divorce more often. I think it would be hard to find convincing evidence either way. But it's plausible the tension may just be apparent and there is another explanation.
watwut 5y ago
Women are happier after divorce. Men are more lonely. Men find new partner sooner, women tend to stay single. Men do better financially after divorce and women worst - despite HN claims of divorce destroying men financially. (I think the last point has to do with who has to pick children from school and be with them day to day). It seems that marriage as is is not working for women while works for men. Women then tend to end it.
AussieWog93 5y ago
>So I think we can take the fact that most divorces are initiated by women as prima facie evidence that women recover better from divorces. That's a pretty big assumption, especially considering how irrational many people are when it comes to divorce. Personally, I've always assumed the discrepancy was caused by women's higher standards and belief that they can get a better man that "treats them right". I wouldn't be at all surprised if that was completely wrong, though.
- jessriedel 5y ago
  My use of "prima facie" specifically flagged that I was not assuming the conclusion, only that it's good evidence that shifts the burden of proof.
  - AussieWog93 5y ago
    I do understand that, but I disagree with you that it's good evidence.

me_im_counting 5y ago

It’s interesting how my comment seems to be taken as an assertion in the opposite direction: that women have it categorically worse in divorce. I believe that reality is much, much more nuanced than either “direction”. That being said, who files is not a perfect signal. I know a few women who filed when it was in reality the husband who ended the marriage.

jessriedel 5y ago
No one is making categorical claims, nor is any signal perfect. But you questioned whether men are worse hit by divorce, and I offered some evidence that they are.

ximeng 5y ago

It could equally be seen as evidence that staying in a bad marriage is worse for women than for men, so women will risk more to escape that scenario. (Presumably people file because they expect a better life outcome for themselves from divorce than from not divorcing. This could be because they expect a better outcome due to divorce, as you say; or that they expect a worse outcome if they don't divorce, which is my alternative possible interpretation. I'm neutral on which is actually the case.)

jessriedel 5y ago
To expect a better outcome with divorce is to expect a worse outcome without divorce.
- ximeng 5y ago
  Suppose a guy and a girl married are both 5/10 in happiness, and that if they divorce they will be 2/10 in happiness for five years, then will recover. Scenario 1 The woman and the man expect their happiness in marriage to stay around 5/10. After five years of divorce they have recovered a bit, but the woman recovers more and is now 6/10 but the man is 4/10. Scenario 2 An alternative is that even though they are both 5/10 in happiness to start with, the woman's expected future happiness in the marriage after five years is only 3/10 while the man's is still 5/10. Suppose they divorce and both recover the same to 4/10 after five years. Analysis In both scenarios after five years the woman will be happier if she divorces, and it may make sense for her to file for divorce depending on her risk tolerance. Woman filing for divorce more could be evidence for scenario 1, which is my interpretation of your post. It could also be evidence for scenario 2, which is incompatible with your interpretation. It is not so simple to say that more filing is evidence for a better recovery for women.
  - jessriedel 5y ago
    > Woman filing for divorce more could be evidence for scenario 1, which is my interpretation of your post. This is not what I intended. I was just trying to counter the suggestion by me_im_counting that men are likely to do better following divorce because of reasons like (according to him) men find it easier to remarry, women are more likely to keep the kids, and men divorce in response to cancer. All of those, as explanations, are in tension with the fact that men are less likely to be initiating divorce.
    - ximeng 5y ago
      So following a divorce there are a number of factors that affect people's long term happiness: possibility of remarrying, quality of time spent to kids, amount of income lost due to childcare and amount of income paid to ex-spouse, and so on. We can assume overall these tend to impact men and women differently, with for example women tending to get more access to kids but losing income as they spend time on childcare, and men tending to pay more to their ex-wives and losing time with the kids. You argue that women gain more from divorce than men overall as women are the ones who file for divorce in the majority of cases. Let's accept for the sake of argument that women do relatively better out of divorces all things considered. The explanation for this could be good post-divorce outcomes for women, which are the factors above such as ease of remarrying or custody. This is what I see as the core of your argument. An alternative explanation might be that in a bad marriage, women are in a particularly vulnerable position relative to men. In that case even with worse outcomes from divorce for women, it might still make sense for women to file for divorce more often. I think it would be hard to find convincing evidence either way. But it's plausible the tension may just be apparent and there is another explanation.

watwut 5y ago

Women are happier after divorce. Men are more lonely. Men find new partner sooner, women tend to stay single. Men do better financially after divorce and women worst - despite HN claims of divorce destroying men financially. (I think the last point has to do with who has to pick children from school and be with them day to day). It seems that marriage as is is not working for women while works for men. Women then tend to end it.

AussieWog93 5y ago

>So I think we can take the fact that most divorces are initiated by women as prima facie evidence that women recover better from divorces. That's a pretty big assumption, especially considering how irrational many people are when it comes to divorce. Personally, I've always assumed the discrepancy was caused by women's higher standards and belief that they can get a better man that "treats them right". I wouldn't be at all surprised if that was completely wrong, though.

jessriedel 5y ago
My use of "prima facie" specifically flagged that I was not assuming the conclusion, only that it's good evidence that shifts the burden of proof.
- AussieWog93 5y ago
  I do understand that, but I disagree with you that it's good evidence.