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This wasn't just any space debris. This debris was created when Russia blew up one of their own satellites earlier today! https://www.theverge.com/2021/11/15/2

• denkmoon 5y ago
  We're going to Kessler syndrome ourselves over some trivial dispute on the ground "requiring" a satellite to be taken out, then retaliation has to occur by the opposing party to save face. Repeat a few times and now you can't get into orbit.
  • elihu 5y ago
    In a major-war-between-superpowers situation, maybe "nobody can get into orbit" is preferable to one side controlling space unilaterally? Though I suppose things would have to be really bad to deny access to space even on a short-term basis. The more plausible scenario maybe just that most of the commercial satellites get destroyed by and become debris, and nothing can occupy certain orbits for any significant length of time without getting hit eventually. Which means that short-term use of space for military objectives would be the least-impacted use case.
    • yread 5y ago
      you have a point, ICBMs fly up to 2000km so if there is a ton of debris at 400 km we are good. Well, unless you need to worry also about nuclear cruise missiles, torpedos, short range ballistic missiles, hacking civilian infrastructure and conventional weapons.
      • PeterisP 5y ago
        I'm not sure if Kessler syndrome would prevent ICBMs - it wouldn't prevent things from getting to space, it would prevent things from getting to space safely. If there's a 50% chance of a destructive impact, manned flights are right out, but firing hundreds of ICBMs would still be reasonably effective.
• Symmetry 5y ago
  And the worst thing is that Kosmos 1408 was in a 679km x 645km orbit. Expect the debris to stick around for a long time. https://twitter.com/torybruno/status/1460403960284516354 https://twitter.com/torybruno/status/1460403960284516354
• yupper32 5y ago
  Why the fuck? The Russians are fully aware of why these kinds of tests are a really really bad thing to do. I truly don't understand why they'd do this. They care about the long term viability of human space travel as much as the US. Do they really think testing out their satellite missiles is worth the result? It's not like there aren't a million other ways to test it without actually blowing anything up.
  • de6u99er 5y ago
    Because of Space Force?
    • belter 5y ago
      Satellite was exactly over the NOTAM area at precise time. https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1460305735317868545 https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1460305735317868545
      • de6u99er 5y ago
        I was just replying to the question why the Russians would do something stupid like this. Then I remembered Space Force, which IMHO is stupid too. Tbh. I am not sure what you are trying to tell me.
        • belter 5y ago
          I got it :-) When I posted my comment your comment said only Space Force so I misunderstood it as you mentioning it could have been Space Force doing it. I believe you updated your comment later to add the word Because? :-) I guess this what is called a virtual space comment collision?
  • andyjohnson0 5y ago
    Its a capability demonstration - mostly for domestic consumption. > They care about the long term viability of human space travel as much as the US. At the leadership level it may be that they only care about it as an area for inter-state competition or selling crewed lift capacity. The latter business is nearly done.
• imglorp 5y ago
  Yeah OP title really buried the lede. It's like "Woman receives puncture wound," instead of "Man shoots woman". Anyway the Russian sat was at about 487 x 461 km orbit and ISS at about 330 x 435 km. That's a haircut. Also: in July, Nauka's thrusters fired uncommanded, sending ISS way off attitude. Is this a pattern? Is it political posturing, organizational competency rot, or just slop?
  • 0des 5y ago
    never attribute to malice what can be blamed on incompetence.
    • cryptoz 5y ago
      Why not? I've found this advice to be harmful. Lots of extreme malice happens under the cover of incompetence.
      • inpdx 5y ago
        I would argue because incompetence is statistically more likely.
        • DonHopkins 5y ago
          Yet malice is statistically more profitable, and pretending to be incompetent is statistically more easy that taking the blame for malice.
        • TheOtherHobbes 5y ago
          Not from hostile state actors. We're talking about a country that has spent the past fifteen years rearming, has interfered in elections and referendums, has held nearby countries hostage over energy supplies, has been involved in ransomware and hack attacks, has imprisoned political opposition leaders, is currently massing an army on its borders, and is run by a short insecure and vain man with mafia connections who likes to posture topless in staged PR photos. It's really quite surreal to dismiss all of that as "incompetence."
• 908B64B197 5y ago
  Completely reckless behavior. Reminds me of when China did the same thing (and of course endangered everyone). Now that America has human flight capabilities again thanks to SpaceX, I think it's time to sunset space relationships with Russia just like it was done with China. Maybe collaboration can resume once they make the decision to behave properly again. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Chinese_anti-satellite_missile_test https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Chinese_anti-satellite_mi...
  • shadowgovt 5y ago
    It's unclear that such a sunsetting would decrease the odds of future tests. Probably wise to keep friends close, enemies closer.
    • 908B64B197 5y ago
      > It's unclear that such a sunsetting would decrease the odds of future tests Honestly, Russia seems to be treating the ISS as a test anyways... https://blogs.nasa.gov/spacestation/2021/07/29/space-station-stable-after-earlier-unplanned-mlm-thruster-firing/ https://blogs.nasa.gov/spacestation/2021/07/29/space-station... https://www.sciencealert.com/russia-knows-what-caused-the-hole-in-the-iss-and-nasa-wants-answers https://www.sciencealert.com/russia-knows-what-caused-the-ho...
    • ksec 5y ago
      >Probably wise to keep friends close, enemies closer. Whoever said that didn't have many enemies. -Stannis Baratheon
  • yread 5y ago
    Reminds me of when US shot down USA-193 at 250km
    • 908B64B197 5y ago
      Except in this case USA-193 was already losing altitude quite fast and was expected to re-enter in the following year no matter what. Now, the satellite Russia shot, Kosmos 1408 [0] had an altitude of 679 km. It will take decades for all the debris to re-enter the atmosphere. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosmos_1408 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosmos_1408
• jacekm 5y ago
  Wow, it's exactly like in the "Gravity" film! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity_(2013_film) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity_(2013_film)
  • ab_io 5y ago
    > During a spacewalk, Mission Control in Houston warns Explorer's crew about a rapidly-expanding cloud of space debris accidentally caused by the Russians having shot down a presumed defunct spy satellite Life imitating art.
    • Aeolun 5y ago
      Except it wasn’t accidental :/
  • mlindner 5y ago
    No it's not. That movie has no bearing on reality.
    • jacquesm 5y ago
      Currently it actually does.
    • jazzyjackson 5y ago
      sorry, are there not astronauts who were recently imperiled by a debris cloud caused by the russians shooting down an old satellite?
  • rmdashrfstar 5y ago
    A defunct Russian satellite is destroyed in orbit and its debris threatens astronauts upgrading Hubble and the Chinese space station located in a similar orbit. It’s scary how accurate the plot is to the real-world situation…
    • m4rtink 5y ago
      Well, in reality all those are in very different orbits, especially the Hubble at 600+ km up. And ISS and the Chinese space stations have very different orbit inclination, mainly due to lauch corridor concerns.
• Goety 5y ago
  A few weeks ago it was from an older Chinese test. It would be quite disturbing if the ISS was destroyed and then China would offer cooperation with theirs.
• boringg 5y ago
  What is the message Russia sending? We will take down satellites coming over our land (e.g. starlink, competitors, foreign actors), is it trying to muscle relevance in the space program, is it trying to distract away from the problems with NATO vis a vis Belarus/Poland, or are they going to knock out some satellites and run into Ukraine with their large build up along the border. Or did someone from the military fire a rocket without think about the consequences because the military does that sometimes?
  • jacquesm 5y ago
    The cost asymmetry translates into Russia not being able to do much against Starlink in space.
    • jazzyjackson 5y ago
      what cost asymmetry? I assume the tactic would be Kessler syndrome: ruin the orbit for everyone
      • boringg 5y ago
        Right thats what I assume as well - though Russia plays unpredictable I don't believe it is as self destructive as it projects its image. They still wheel and deal like a traditional nation but add some dramatic flair.
        • jacquesm 5y ago
          It's a failed state at this point, a kleptocracy.
      • jacquesm 5y ago
        That would affect more than just that orbit, it would affect our ability to get into space at all.
        • pjc50 5y ago