4 ms·

It's exceptionally good advice. Jerome Powell has already made it clear through his actions that everything is now 'Too Big To Fail'. Capital is at an all-time

It's exceptionally good advice. Jerome Powell has already made it clear through his actions that everything is now 'Too Big To Fail'. Capital is at an all-time low in terms of actual real cost to the borrower. You'd be an idiot not to borrow right now. If we keep seeing dramatic inflation, there will be some increase in wages, and it'll be enough to offset whatever interest rate you get, unless you're just an utterly unqualified borrower. There's a reason /r/wallstreetbets exploded in popularity right around the time COVID-19 hit and money was being printed nonstop and assets were dramatically increasing in value... the hoi polloi know the playbook that the wealthy elite have been using, and now they're using it too.

staticman2 5y ago
You are only giving this advice because we've had a 10 year bull market. You feel excuberant and you are justifying it with fancy words. Meanwhile capital is at an all time high in terms of price to earnings. There's no reason to think you know what the future holds.
- cbozeman 5y ago
  > There's no reason to think you know what the future holds. Prior behavior is the best predictor of future behavior. The world has become complacent and dependent upon cheap capital, and no one - and I mean no one - is ready or willing to turn off the faucet yet.
  - staticman2 5y ago
    Prior behavior includes the 50% stock market crash in 2008 and ten year periods of negetive real stock market retutns. A financial plan that doesn't include a probabity of these events recurring isn't one I can get behind. No expert recommends dwelling on only the most recent behavior.
harambae 5y ago
There's no guarantee Jerome Powell will always be the fed chair (and if inflation really gets out of hand he could just be the fall guy). But the bigger problem is that in an inflationary environment, real assets get bid up high to compensate. This has already happened in housing (clearly) so you're late to the party. If you knew for certain that inflation was going to get to this level before everyone else, maybe it would have been a good idea to do what you're describing.

staticman2 5y ago

You are only giving this advice because we've had a 10 year bull market. You feel excuberant and you are justifying it with fancy words. Meanwhile capital is at an all time high in terms of price to earnings. There's no reason to think you know what the future holds.

cbozeman 5y ago
> There's no reason to think you know what the future holds. Prior behavior is the best predictor of future behavior. The world has become complacent and dependent upon cheap capital, and no one - and I mean no one - is ready or willing to turn off the faucet yet.
- staticman2 5y ago
  Prior behavior includes the 50% stock market crash in 2008 and ten year periods of negetive real stock market retutns. A financial plan that doesn't include a probabity of these events recurring isn't one I can get behind. No expert recommends dwelling on only the most recent behavior.

harambae 5y ago

There's no guarantee Jerome Powell will always be the fed chair (and if inflation really gets out of hand he could just be the fall guy). But the bigger problem is that in an inflationary environment, real assets get bid up high to compensate. This has already happened in housing (clearly) so you're late to the party. If you knew for certain that inflation was going to get to this level before everyone else, maybe it would have been a good idea to do what you're describing.