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One concerning item with recent events is that no one can plausibly point to a nuclear "red line" in most of the existing flash points. The historic red lines
by lumost 5y ago
One concerning item with recent events is that no one can plausibly point to a nuclear "red line" in most of the existing flash points.
The historic red lines in the cold war were either one side reaching a first-strike position, or an unstoppable ground invasion in which both sides soldiers were directly involved and tactical nuclear weapons would usefully repel the invasion. Even then NATO troop deployments in Germany during the cold war reflect both a risk that this tipping point wouldn't trigger a nuclear war - as well as carefully calculated strategies to ensure that the risk of a nuclear escalation was high such as by stationing tactical nuclear weapons in Germany.
It's difficult to identify a similar red line in a likely conflict between any of the major nuclear powers.
- ls612 5y agoThis is why war in the pacific is a disturbingly realistic possibility. There's no plausible scenario under which such a war is existential for either side and so no plausible path to nuclear escalation. But this could lead to a very protracted conventional war we haven't seen in a long time. Game theory is weird and counterintuitive.