5 ms·
Since there seems to be a lot of assumptions rather than data, I wanted to post this as a top-level comment: the risk is super low (~.014%) even in teens [1] >
by boulos 5y ago
Since there seems to be a lot of assumptions rather than data, I wanted to post this as a top-level comment: the risk is super low (~.014%) even in teens [1]
> The myocarditis risk difference between the first and second dose was 1.76 cases per 100,000 people (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.33 to 2.19), or less than a 0.002% incidence. The largest difference was among male recipients 16 to 19 years, who had 13.73 cases per 100,000 people (95% CIs, 8.11 to 19.46)—but even that level amounts to only a 0.014% incidence.
> In other words, compared with unvaccinated people, vaccinated people had a 2.35 rate ratio of myocarditis 30 days after the second dose (95% CI, 1.10 to 5.02). Vaccinated young males had an 8.96 rate ratio (95% CI, 4.50 to 17.83).
[1] https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/10/covid-vaccine-related-myocarditis-rare-usually-mild-studies-say https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/10/covid-va...
- belter 5y agoLooks higher than the rate of death from Covid for children currently estimated by University College London at "2 in a million" "Covid: Children's extremely low risk confirmed by study" https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57766717 https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57766717
- ceejayoz 5y agoYou're comparing death to cases.
- margalabargala 5y agoAt these scales, that's unfortunately not what matters in comparison. What needs to be compared is "expected negative effects from the vaccine to children" to "expected negative effects from Covid to children as well as everyone they are likely to infect". Kids don't die from covid often, but they sure spread it all over to people who do.
- 323 5y agoBut in that case they should also say "as a young person you need to get this vaccine mostly to protect others". Which is exactly what JCVI said: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/jcvi-issues-updated-advice-on-covid-19-vaccination-of-children-aged-12-to-15 https://www.gov.uk/government/news/jcvi-issues-updated-advic...
- belter 5y agoFunny that is never phrased like that, but always as in, a risk to the children themselves as you can see from this: "Dr. Fauci answers questions about children and COVID-19 vaccines" https://www.npr.org/2021/10/27/1049546323/dr-fauci-answers-questions-about-children-and-covid-19-vaccines https://www.npr.org/2021/10/27/1049546323/dr-fauci-answers-q...
- margalabargala 5y agoThere's plenty of different arguments that make different points to support the same conclusion. Above, you compared "risk of death" to "risk of myocarditis" and noticed the latter is higher. But Dr. Fauci is comparing "risk of death and other non-fatal negative effects from covid" to "risk of myocarditis and other negative effects from vaccination", and that tips the scales the other way.
- nradov 5y agoEven vaccinated kids spread the virus. I encourage everyone eligible to get vaccinated, but it has only a limited and temporary effect on reducing transmission. The primary benefit is in reducing severe symptoms. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immunity-not-possible-astrazeneca-developer-2021-8?r=US&IR=T https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu... https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00648-4/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...
- margalabargala 5y agoVaccinated kids spread the virus only if they are infected. A vaccinated person is less likely to become infected at all, so even if vaccination did not reduce transmission in infected people, it would still reduce transmission in the whole population because fewer people were infected.
- xboxnolifes 5y agoI was under the impression that data suggests the the vaccinated still spread covid. In such case, does this logic not fall through?
- ceejayoz 5y agoThe data suggests the vaccinated are less likely to spread COVID, for a period of time. https://www.newscientist.com/article/2294250-how-much-less-likely-are-you-to-spread-covid-19-if-youre-vaccinated/ https://www.newscientist.com/article/2294250-how-much-less-l... > A recent study found that vaccinated people infected with the delta variant are 63 per cent less likely to infect people who are unvaccinated. > What is important to realise, de Gier says, is that the full effect of vaccines on reducing transmission is even higher than 63 per cent, because most vaccinated people don’t become infected in the first place. It's not perfect, but it's not nothing either.
- margalabargala 5y agoNo, for two reasons: 1) This would be true only if the magnitude of spreading was equal. But the data suggests that the vaccinated spread covid less than unvaccinated, especially soon after vaccination. 2) Even if an infected vaccinated person spread the disease an equal amount as an unvaccinated person, they are less likely to be infected at all, thus resulting in a reduction in total disease spread.
- ceejayoz 5y agoAlso important: > Almost 95% of vaccine-linked myocarditis cases were mild, but one fulminant (sudden and quickly escalating) case was fatal. Surveillance occurred from the vaccine's market introduction, Dec 20, 2020, to May 31, 2021.
- boulos 5y agoYes, good point. I should have probably included that section too (or at least said "risk of occurrence"). It's also highly treatable, medical practitioners know to look out for it and so on.