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The only explanation for this valuation is that Rivian is pretty much exactly what people wanted in a Tesla pickup. Rivian managed to build a car that people a

The only explanation for this valuation is that Rivian is pretty much exactly what people wanted in a Tesla pickup. Rivian managed to build a car that people actually want. Their car is a really great pickup truck with all the stuff that people want in a utility vehicle (flexible storage space! air compressor! power outlets! easy to build out!) And the Rivian looks close enough to a normal pickup that people aren't going to feel stupid driving them. Nobody who wants a work / camping / towing truck is going to buy a Cybertruck. A cybertuck is a car for programmers who make too much money and want to feel like Robocop. I think Rivians high valuation just shows that they managed to nail a market segment that Tesla floundered.

ab_testing 5y ago
Or may be it is overvalued due to cheap money. Investors have valued the company at revenue that they might achieve after about 30 years in the business.
CarVac 5y ago
The Rivian is not a work pickup though, it has a tiny bed.
- reilly3000 5y ago
  Not all work involves 8 foot sheet goods. A whole lot of it involves hauling around a small amount of equipment. If more is needed most are better off with an enclosed walk-in utility truck or a trailer. Long bed pickups are really quite rare, and almost never have a crew cab… and they are a real hassle to drive and park.
- jackorange 5y ago
  I've seen smaller trucks at work. The bed size doesnt matter as much as towing capacity.
- el_benhameen 5y ago
  I think it’s worth keeping in mind that a large number (perhaps a majority?) of people buying high-end “work trucks” use little to none of the work capacity of those trucks.
  - asdff 5y ago
    They still want it to fit the two by four they buy once every four years
  - mastazi 5y ago
    Doesn't that prove parent's point though? Effectively those aren't work trucks. Because of this widespread trend, most new models have dual cab and it is now hard to find "real" work trucks so the old, 2-seats-only models are highly sought after in the used market, at least based on what my farmer friends tell me
    - to11mtm 5y ago
      > 2-seats-only models are highly sought after in the used market, at least based on what my farmer friends tell me When I lived an an apartment, one of my neighbors had a 2 door Silverado as his daily. He was a 'car guy' and had an Ion Red-line I once asked about buying. He was actually -surprised- I asked about that and not the Silverado, because he had a lot of folks offer to buy it apparently. I had a controversial thought about this, especially after the impending total-death of the American Car; What if -only- trucks with 2 doors, or a 4-door truck with a full bed got the 'light truck' EPA special treatment? When we look at the chart of target MPGs by size/class[0] you can see there's a pretty big disparity in what Trucks vs cars have to get. It's interesting to think about all of this in the face of the automakers' recent actions; EV/Hybrid trucks help the CAFE ratings, and part of me is asking whether the Explorer going back to Body-on-Frame was to keep it from being classified as a Car. None of this would be new, of course; the PT Cruiser and Chevy HHR's existence were in some ways prolonged, if not a result of the fact they counted as Trucks for Fuel Economy. I think in the face of all the talk we have about climate change, it's worth looking at what we can do as individuals to reduce footprint. That's part of why I'm switching my daily to the Maverick Hybrid (if it ever shows up, lol) [0] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporate_average_fuel_economy#Agreed_standards_by_model_year,_2012%E2%80%932025 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporate_average_fuel_economy...
- jonstewart 5y ago
  Most other trucks these days have tiny beds, too, because of the crew cabs.
colinmhayes 5y ago
I feel like F150 lightning will be more popular due to name recognition. Ford has gotten some pretty solid reviews on their electric cars.
- bink 5y ago
  I have high hopes for the electric F150. But we're still talking about a traditional automaker here. They always find a way to screw things up when it comes to EVs.
  - _ea1k 5y ago
    IDK, the Mach E was their first effort and is actually doing really well. I would expect their second product to be even better.
    - toast0 5y ago
      Ford made electric Rangers when GM was making the EV-1, so not entirely their first effort.
  - gibolt 5y ago
    The screw up will be scale. Securing enough batteries and producing them in volume is not something they have (publicly) announced. Making 50k a year would barely dent their annual truck sales of 1mil.
  - dgudkov 5y ago
    At least we know how Ford can screw things. With Rivian we don't know even that. Yet, Rivian's valuation is higher than Ford's capitalization despite many unknowns and far far smaller production rate.
  - beervirus 5y ago
    Tesla, on the other hand, screws things up in novel and exciting ways.
  - waiseristy 5y ago
primitivesuave 5y ago
This is exactly why I canceled my Cybertruck reservation for an R1T. Tesla was the only company offering a realistic path toward an electric outdoor vehicle, but I immediately canceled when I read about the R1T because it is actually seems to be designed with outdoor users in mind, while still being functional as a daily vehicle. Their customer service is also pretty stellar - they even gave me the dimensions of the truck bed ahead of time, so I can build out a camper top in CAD and have it ready before my upcoming delivery.
- hunterb123 5y ago
  Personally the Cybertruck seems to fit my needs a lot better for hauling large objects due to the larger truck bed size. We'll see how Rivian does once they actually ship something, I have nothing to go on with them. For Tesla I know the software, charging networks, and current tech is pretty stellar. No clue about Rivian.
- panick21_ 5y ago
  Rivian is a new automaker. It took Tesla a decade to build up service centers everywhere. Lets see how well their costumer service does when need to repair it.
desmondmonster 5y ago
> A cybertuck is a car for programmers who make too much money and want to feel like Robocop. And Rivian trucks are for folks who want to feel like Bomberman.
jclardy 5y ago
Yeah I agree, I feel the Cybertruck design was primarily to get their cost down to $39k (Which with the pricing of the M3 now starting at $45k, there is no way the CT will hit that.) But what people really want is just a normal truck, but electric. That is why Tesla is at the top of the electric car market, nobody was making a "normal" looking electric car. Both Ford and Rivian took up that segment for pickup trucks, so it'll be interesting to see how this affects Tesla.
- mcot2 5y ago
  It has zero affect. They will sell every single vehicle they can make for a decade. If by then, people think the design is weird they will build a traditional truck. The hard part is scaling battery cell production. The shell of the vehicle is easy to change out if people are not buying it.
hourislate 5y ago
"The only explanation for this valuation is that" There is an abundance of cheap money courtesy of the FED that is finding it's way into the market. It isn't Joe6pack buying Rivian. "Rivian managed to build a car that people actually want." Didn't FORD do this with the F150? I don't know of one contractor that is going to buy a Rivian. Most drive beat up F250's/RAM 2500/etc. "I think Rivians high valuation just shows that they managed to nail a market segment that Tesla floundered." >as of Sept. 30, it had roughly 48,390 orders for its truck and S.U.V. in the United States and Canada from customers who each had paid a refundable deposit of $1,000. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/01/business/rivian-ipo.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/01/business/rivian-ipo.html Here are Fords numbers. https://fordauthority.com/fmc/ford-motor-company-sales-numbers/ford-sales-numbers/ford-f-series-sales-numbers/ https://fordauthority.com/fmc/ford-motor-company-sales-numbe... So far this year approx 500k F150's and that's during a chip shortage. Anyway, I hope they're successful but there is a lot of future growth and profit priced in and time will tell.
- notatoad 5y ago
  >I don't know of one contractor that is going to buy a Rivian. Most drive beat up F250's/RAM 2500/etc. the vast majority of trucks are not owned by people using them for work. Rivian seems to have completely ignored the pro market, which is exactly how the pro market seems to be treating the F150. At the moment, electric trucks are still toys for rich people, and Rivian is leaning into that.
ssharp 5y ago
I am pretty certain to replace my 25 year old Chevy 2500 with an electric truck over the next few years and am not really even considering the Rivian. The small bed is not really appealing at all compared to the F150 and it's not that interesting compared to the Cybertruck. I'm pretty skeptical that Tesla can pull off the Cybertruck for the prices they initially announced, but if they do, that's going to be a big advantage. Their SUV does look pretty interesting though. The Model Y is too small for what a lot of families now expect from an SUV and the Model X is very expensive.
- hamburglar 5y ago
  I’m on the list for a cybertruck and I have basically no confidence that they will come in anywhere near their originally stated prices. I’m a big fan of the audacity of the design (but let’s face it, it looks silly. I just don’t care that it looks silly), and I like that cost savings is a big factor that influenced it, not merely looking silly for its own sake. I plan to wait until it’s actually available and I can see the real price and then decide whether I want it or the F150. The F150 is my safe, perfectly fine backup. The CT is the interesting choice. I’m not even considering the Rivian despite the fact that it looks awesome simply because I think the starting price is nuts.
  - subsubzero 5y ago
    starting price is nuts, also whats not being said is reliability is an uncertain. Given barely any Rivians are out there, I know the rock climber Alex Honnold was given one, who can say that they are not buying a very expensive problem.
protastus 5y ago
I think the valuation is driven by the delivery vans rather than the R1T. The world desperately needs electric delivery vans. Rivian already has Amazon as a customer and as an investor. That's an outstanding combination. The R1T is a super heavy, niche pickup truck for wealthy American households (DINK?) who like camping in style. It's not a truck for the industry, and it will not come close to the F150 in utility. I totally agree the Cybertruck is a design from a comic book and I have no idea how it would pass pedestrian safety regulations. But the Cybertruck being a bizarre vehicle doesn't imply there's a big market for the R1T.
- 8ytecoder 5y ago
  I think you both are right. You assume that people make investment decisions based on pure data. It's the delivery vans for Amazon and the Ford deal that's going to drive profits and numbers. But please don't underestimate the value of being visible. Rivian's truck looks really good and being recognizable will definitely drive share price as well.
- mcot2 5y ago
  Both the delivery van and truck/suv will be production constrained by battery supply for many years to come. Honestly they should just build whatever has a better margin with the battery supply they have until they are not cell constrained anymore.
- Drunk_Engineer 5y ago
  In the US there are no pedestrian safety regulations.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- threeseed 5y ago
  In Australia at least they have already said it would not be street legal: https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/motoring/motoring-news/new-tesla-cybertruck-could-put-other-road-users-at-risk/news-story/da648cad43ef731ae5dbb45632a6ed41 https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/motoring/motor... And hints of the same coming out of UK and EU.
cptskippy 5y ago
I've always felt like the Cybertruck was just a gimmick and never intended to sell massively like the 3 or Y. It's up there with the eHummer in my mind.
- jimt1234 5y ago
  I feel like the Cybertruck is for the same folks that drove Hummer H2's back in the early-2000s, the "look at me" crowd. Elon is going after the "coal rolling" market. LOL
chaostheory 5y ago
> A cybertuck is a car for programmers who make too much money and want to feel like Robocop. I thought the cartels and war lords were the target market?
- cblconfederate 5y ago
  battery cars are traceable, remotely deactivated, limited range, dependent on electic network etc. how are they practical for narcos etc?
  - jjeaff 5y ago
    Maybe because of the semi-bullet proof windows and tough exterior?
spaetzleesser 5y ago
The real explanation for this evaluation is that the investor class has decided to offer stock on the public market only in a way that there is basically almost no upside potential left for the retail investor, only downside. This is basically an attempt to make cash while transferring most of the risk to retail investors. I am 100% convinced that this will end like the .COM bubble.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- brianwawok 5y ago
  Right, most car startups fail. Odds are against some of these…
  - phlipski 5y ago
    I don't see how the market can value Rivian as the fifth most valuable car company IN THE WORLD - behind Tesla, Toyota, VW and BYD. Ford ships 900K F-150's annually and their market cap is ~ $80 billion.... HW doesn't scale like SW yet the market seems to think (hope?) otherwise....
gameswithgo 5y ago
Ive run into two people this week with deposits on cyber trucks. I don’t meet many people!
gopalv 5y ago
> Rivian looks close enough to a normal pickup that people aren't going to feel stupid driving them Someone said that the R1T looks both 50 years old and from the future at the same time & that is emphasized every time I see one on the road. From my close group, the biggest interest in it has come from ski-heads for a zero maintenance Aspen/Tahoe car that will be ready to run when they head in & the bed is big enough for most snow gear (does the gear tunnel fit a short ski?).
mcot2 5y ago
This comment is not supported by the facts. Tesla has more orders for Cybertruck than Rivian has for their truck or Ford has for their truck. Regardless, none of these companies will be able to build enough for several years to come, maybe even a decade. Each year there are millions of trucks sold just in the United States. Initial volumes for these EV trucks are only projected to be ~50,000/yr. So your comment is actually moot since all EV truck companies will sell as many as they can produce, the styling does not matter at all.
- mey 5y ago
  > the styling does not matter at all. Supply may be fully consumed, but demand may not be equal, allowing for one company to demand a higher premium on their product over another. Fantastic example of this is AMD slashing the price of the 5800x in response to Intel 12th gen. It's not like there isn't a chip shortage and supply isn't fully saturated.
thelastgallon 5y ago
Pickups are #1, #2, #3 selling in the US [1]. There is room for both Tesla and Rivian. Just make them! I bet the valuations of companies selling horseshoe, saddle, horses, stables, stagecoach, etc was high when Ford started out. Most people at that time may not have understood why Ford is valued so high when good money can be made selling saddles. Technology evolves. Ford and GM are now the companies making horseshoes and saddles. This is reflected in the insane valuations of pure EV companies. Rooting for both Tesla and Rivian to be successful! [1] https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g36005989/best-selling-cars-2021/ https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g36005989/best-selling-car...
- enos_feedler 5y ago
  The interesting thing will be the intersection of people who love trucks and also are willing to go electric. Most of my truck loving friends are in my home town where there is quite literally no teslas and nobody wants anything to do with electric vehicles.
  - mrgordon 5y ago
    Soon they won’t have a choice
    - enos_feedler 5y ago
      Yes eventually, but the key question here is timing. There choice needs to be removed within a window that enables Rivian to own the market. If we are talking 10+ years out (which I think is likely) then Rivian will be dead and EV will be a commodity feature in all other cars.
- cblconfederate 5y ago
  It is surprising that this is not reflected in valuation of companies making hybrid vehicles
- dnissley 5y ago
  re: top selling vehicles being pick ups -- there's a big asterisk there: A significant portion of those vehicles are barebones, super low-cost work trucks, and on top of that Ford (the top seller) lumps literally all of their F-series together, without breaking them down into F-150, F-250, etc. some of which there will not be an electric replacement for many years.
drumhead 5y ago
I think the high valuation is indicative of a bubble. When companies that haven't delivered a product in an ultra competitive market can be valued at such an absurdly high level the alarm bells are ringing. We've seen this before in markets going back hundreds of years, it's not different this time, it never is.
- sumedh 5y ago
  Well you could argue that there has been a lot of money pumping done by the Fed so this time might be different :)
- mrgordon 5y ago
  They said the same thing about Tesla and it’s been working out quite well for them. I definitely favor the theory that it’s a bubble but even if it’s true “the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”
  - drumhead 5y ago
    Is it different this time?
megablast 5y ago
The only explanation?? What is this rubbish?? How about people seeing them being the next Tesla and wanting to get in early?? And a dozen other reasons.
cblconfederate 5y ago
i guess this is ironic?
m0zg 5y ago
> Nobody who wants a work / camping / towing truck is going to buy a Cybertruck Yeah, and 1M+ "nobodies" have already put in pre-orders sight unseen, including me. /s Personally I think Rivian occupies a rather uncomfortable middle ground between a "traditional" truck, a market which will be dominated by Ford, and a "reimagined" truck, a market which will be dominated by Tesla. I'm sure they'll do reasonably well - rising tide lifts all boats, but perhaps not as well as the established players, unless they have some tricks up their sleeve that we don't know about.
cromwellian 5y ago
Doesn't the Cybertruck beat the R1T on like every conceivable metric? https://insideevs.com/features/434634/tesla-cybertruck-rivian-r1t-comparison-infographic/ https://insideevs.com/features/434634/tesla-cybertruck-rivia... Not only are most of the specs better, the price is better for the lower end versions, and get unique features like steel and armor glass. There was a toddler killed by a stray bullet on I-880 last weekend, I'm thinking he might have survived in a Cybertruck. Of course the downside is maybe gangs will start buying Cybertrucks and use them for drive bys.
- 1024core 5y ago
  "This article comes to us courtesy of EVANNEX, which makes and sells aftermarket Tesla accessories." ... so appears to be a bit biased towards Tesla?
  - panick21_ 5y ago
    Are you saying they falsified the specs given to them by the manufacturer?
  - cromwellian 5y ago
    How about Kelly Blue Book? https://www.kbb.com/comparison/tesla-cybertruck-vs-rivian-r1t-comparison/ https://www.kbb.com/comparison/tesla-cybertruck-vs-rivian-r1... I mean, the stats on HP, range, towing capacity, etc are all publicly available.
sakopov 5y ago
The only justification for this valuation is the EV bubble. People are desperately looking for Tesla-like gains and they'll sink money into anything that'll get them there, so companies are using the opportunity to IPO at insane valuations. There is no other sane justification for this insane valuation for an auto-maker that makes 2 cars a day.
panick21_ 5y ago
> Nobody who wants a work / camping / towing truck is going to buy a Cybertruck. That people confidently say nonsense like this is just mind blowing. How the fuck do you know that? Do you think the almost a million preorders are all by programers? For a work truck you car about cost and performance, and Cybertruck beats the riven easily. The Rivian isn't close to being a work truck, they don't even advertise it as such. And to get that kind of valuation you need much more then a prototype, you need to produce 500k and even then the valuation is not justified.
sireat 5y ago
What is amazing that apparently investors are fine with having no say how the company is run: "Scaringe will hold all outstanding Class B common shares after the IPO and get 10 votes per share," The new normal (see Google, Facebook, Zynga, etc). You can own 6% of the company but retain full control. You get to have your cake and eat it too if you are a founder. As an investor in these modern Class A "shares" you are just playing the game of musical chairs. Where is the fundamental value in Class A ? It used to be that if you did not care for control, you either bought bonds or preferred shares.

ab_testing 5y ago

Or may be it is overvalued due to cheap money. Investors have valued the company at revenue that they might achieve after about 30 years in the business.

CarVac 5y ago

The Rivian is not a work pickup though, it has a tiny bed.

reilly3000 5y ago
Not all work involves 8 foot sheet goods. A whole lot of it involves hauling around a small amount of equipment. If more is needed most are better off with an enclosed walk-in utility truck or a trailer. Long bed pickups are really quite rare, and almost never have a crew cab… and they are a real hassle to drive and park.
jackorange 5y ago
I've seen smaller trucks at work. The bed size doesnt matter as much as towing capacity.
el_benhameen 5y ago
I think it’s worth keeping in mind that a large number (perhaps a majority?) of people buying high-end “work trucks” use little to none of the work capacity of those trucks.
- asdff 5y ago
  They still want it to fit the two by four they buy once every four years
- mastazi 5y ago
  Doesn't that prove parent's point though? Effectively those aren't work trucks. Because of this widespread trend, most new models have dual cab and it is now hard to find "real" work trucks so the old, 2-seats-only models are highly sought after in the used market, at least based on what my farmer friends tell me
  - to11mtm 5y ago
    > 2-seats-only models are highly sought after in the used market, at least based on what my farmer friends tell me When I lived an an apartment, one of my neighbors had a 2 door Silverado as his daily. He was a 'car guy' and had an Ion Red-line I once asked about buying. He was actually -surprised- I asked about that and not the Silverado, because he had a lot of folks offer to buy it apparently. I had a controversial thought about this, especially after the impending total-death of the American Car; What if -only- trucks with 2 doors, or a 4-door truck with a full bed got the 'light truck' EPA special treatment? When we look at the chart of target MPGs by size/class[0] you can see there's a pretty big disparity in what Trucks vs cars have to get. It's interesting to think about all of this in the face of the automakers' recent actions; EV/Hybrid trucks help the CAFE ratings, and part of me is asking whether the Explorer going back to Body-on-Frame was to keep it from being classified as a Car. None of this would be new, of course; the PT Cruiser and Chevy HHR's existence were in some ways prolonged, if not a result of the fact they counted as Trucks for Fuel Economy. I think in the face of all the talk we have about climate change, it's worth looking at what we can do as individuals to reduce footprint. That's part of why I'm switching my daily to the Maverick Hybrid (if it ever shows up, lol) [0] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporate_average_fuel_economy#Agreed_standards_by_model_year,_2012%E2%80%932025 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporate_average_fuel_economy...
jonstewart 5y ago
Most other trucks these days have tiny beds, too, because of the crew cabs.

colinmhayes 5y ago

I feel like F150 lightning will be more popular due to name recognition. Ford has gotten some pretty solid reviews on their electric cars.

bink 5y ago
I have high hopes for the electric F150. But we're still talking about a traditional automaker here. They always find a way to screw things up when it comes to EVs.
- _ea1k 5y ago
  IDK, the Mach E was their first effort and is actually doing really well. I would expect their second product to be even better.
  - toast0 5y ago
    Ford made electric Rangers when GM was making the EV-1, so not entirely their first effort.
- gibolt 5y ago
  The screw up will be scale. Securing enough batteries and producing them in volume is not something they have (publicly) announced. Making 50k a year would barely dent their annual truck sales of 1mil.
- dgudkov 5y ago
  At least we know how Ford can screw things. With Rivian we don't know even that. Yet, Rivian's valuation is higher than Ford's capitalization despite many unknowns and far far smaller production rate.
- beervirus 5y ago
  Tesla, on the other hand, screws things up in novel and exciting ways.
- waiseristy 5y ago

primitivesuave 5y ago

This is exactly why I canceled my Cybertruck reservation for an R1T. Tesla was the only company offering a realistic path toward an electric outdoor vehicle, but I immediately canceled when I read about the R1T because it is actually seems to be designed with outdoor users in mind, while still being functional as a daily vehicle. Their customer service is also pretty stellar - they even gave me the dimensions of the truck bed ahead of time, so I can build out a camper top in CAD and have it ready before my upcoming delivery.

hunterb123 5y ago
Personally the Cybertruck seems to fit my needs a lot better for hauling large objects due to the larger truck bed size. We'll see how Rivian does once they actually ship something, I have nothing to go on with them. For Tesla I know the software, charging networks, and current tech is pretty stellar. No clue about Rivian.
panick21_ 5y ago
Rivian is a new automaker. It took Tesla a decade to build up service centers everywhere. Lets see how well their costumer service does when need to repair it.

desmondmonster 5y ago

> A cybertuck is a car for programmers who make too much money and want to feel like Robocop. And Rivian trucks are for folks who want to feel like Bomberman.

jclardy 5y ago

Yeah I agree, I feel the Cybertruck design was primarily to get their cost down to $39k (Which with the pricing of the M3 now starting at $45k, there is no way the CT will hit that.) But what people really want is just a normal truck, but electric. That is why Tesla is at the top of the electric car market, nobody was making a "normal" looking electric car. Both Ford and Rivian took up that segment for pickup trucks, so it'll be interesting to see how this affects Tesla.

mcot2 5y ago
It has zero affect. They will sell every single vehicle they can make for a decade. If by then, people think the design is weird they will build a traditional truck. The hard part is scaling battery cell production. The shell of the vehicle is easy to change out if people are not buying it.

hourislate 5y ago

"The only explanation for this valuation is that" There is an abundance of cheap money courtesy of the FED that is finding it's way into the market. It isn't Joe6pack buying Rivian. "Rivian managed to build a car that people actually want." Didn't FORD do this with the F150? I don't know of one contractor that is going to buy a Rivian. Most drive beat up F250's/RAM 2500/etc. "I think Rivians high valuation just shows that they managed to nail a market segment that Tesla floundered." >as of Sept. 30, it had roughly 48,390 orders for its truck and S.U.V. in the United States and Canada from customers who each had paid a refundable deposit of $1,000. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/01/business/rivian-ipo.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/01/business/rivian-ipo.html Here are Fords numbers. https://fordauthority.com/fmc/ford-motor-company-sales-numbers/ford-sales-numbers/ford-f-series-sales-numbers/ https://fordauthority.com/fmc/ford-motor-company-sales-numbe... So far this year approx 500k F150's and that's during a chip shortage. Anyway, I hope they're successful but there is a lot of future growth and profit priced in and time will tell.

notatoad 5y ago
>I don't know of one contractor that is going to buy a Rivian. Most drive beat up F250's/RAM 2500/etc. the vast majority of trucks are not owned by people using them for work. Rivian seems to have completely ignored the pro market, which is exactly how the pro market seems to be treating the F150. At the moment, electric trucks are still toys for rich people, and Rivian is leaning into that.

ssharp 5y ago

I am pretty certain to replace my 25 year old Chevy 2500 with an electric truck over the next few years and am not really even considering the Rivian. The small bed is not really appealing at all compared to the F150 and it's not that interesting compared to the Cybertruck. I'm pretty skeptical that Tesla can pull off the Cybertruck for the prices they initially announced, but if they do, that's going to be a big advantage. Their SUV does look pretty interesting though. The Model Y is too small for what a lot of families now expect from an SUV and the Model X is very expensive.

hamburglar 5y ago
I’m on the list for a cybertruck and I have basically no confidence that they will come in anywhere near their originally stated prices. I’m a big fan of the audacity of the design (but let’s face it, it looks silly. I just don’t care that it looks silly), and I like that cost savings is a big factor that influenced it, not merely looking silly for its own sake. I plan to wait until it’s actually available and I can see the real price and then decide whether I want it or the F150. The F150 is my safe, perfectly fine backup. The CT is the interesting choice. I’m not even considering the Rivian despite the fact that it looks awesome simply because I think the starting price is nuts.
- subsubzero 5y ago
  starting price is nuts, also whats not being said is reliability is an uncertain. Given barely any Rivians are out there, I know the rock climber Alex Honnold was given one, who can say that they are not buying a very expensive problem.

protastus 5y ago

I think the valuation is driven by the delivery vans rather than the R1T. The world desperately needs electric delivery vans. Rivian already has Amazon as a customer and as an investor. That's an outstanding combination. The R1T is a super heavy, niche pickup truck for wealthy American households (DINK?) who like camping in style. It's not a truck for the industry, and it will not come close to the F150 in utility. I totally agree the Cybertruck is a design from a comic book and I have no idea how it would pass pedestrian safety regulations. But the Cybertruck being a bizarre vehicle doesn't imply there's a big market for the R1T.

8ytecoder 5y ago
I think you both are right. You assume that people make investment decisions based on pure data. It's the delivery vans for Amazon and the Ford deal that's going to drive profits and numbers. But please don't underestimate the value of being visible. Rivian's truck looks really good and being recognizable will definitely drive share price as well.
mcot2 5y ago
Both the delivery van and truck/suv will be production constrained by battery supply for many years to come. Honestly they should just build whatever has a better margin with the battery supply they have until they are not cell constrained anymore.
Drunk_Engineer 5y ago
In the US there are no pedestrian safety regulations.
- deleted 5y ago
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threeseed 5y ago
In Australia at least they have already said it would not be street legal: https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/motoring/motoring-news/new-tesla-cybertruck-could-put-other-road-users-at-risk/news-story/da648cad43ef731ae5dbb45632a6ed41 https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/motoring/motor... And hints of the same coming out of UK and EU.

cptskippy 5y ago

I've always felt like the Cybertruck was just a gimmick and never intended to sell massively like the 3 or Y. It's up there with the eHummer in my mind.

jimt1234 5y ago
I feel like the Cybertruck is for the same folks that drove Hummer H2's back in the early-2000s, the "look at me" crowd. Elon is going after the "coal rolling" market. LOL

chaostheory 5y ago

> A cybertuck is a car for programmers who make too much money and want to feel like Robocop. I thought the cartels and war lords were the target market?

cblconfederate 5y ago
battery cars are traceable, remotely deactivated, limited range, dependent on electic network etc. how are they practical for narcos etc?
- jjeaff 5y ago
  Maybe because of the semi-bullet proof windows and tough exterior?

spaetzleesser 5y ago

The real explanation for this evaluation is that the investor class has decided to offer stock on the public market only in a way that there is basically almost no upside potential left for the retail investor, only downside. This is basically an attempt to make cash while transferring most of the risk to retail investors. I am 100% convinced that this will end like the .COM bubble.

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brianwawok 5y ago
Right, most car startups fail. Odds are against some of these…
- phlipski 5y ago
  I don't see how the market can value Rivian as the fifth most valuable car company IN THE WORLD - behind Tesla, Toyota, VW and BYD. Ford ships 900K F-150's annually and their market cap is ~ $80 billion.... HW doesn't scale like SW yet the market seems to think (hope?) otherwise....

gameswithgo 5y ago

Ive run into two people this week with deposits on cyber trucks. I don’t meet many people!

gopalv 5y ago

> Rivian looks close enough to a normal pickup that people aren't going to feel stupid driving them Someone said that the R1T looks both 50 years old and from the future at the same time & that is emphasized every time I see one on the road. From my close group, the biggest interest in it has come from ski-heads for a zero maintenance Aspen/Tahoe car that will be ready to run when they head in & the bed is big enough for most snow gear (does the gear tunnel fit a short ski?).

mcot2 5y ago

This comment is not supported by the facts. Tesla has more orders for Cybertruck than Rivian has for their truck or Ford has for their truck. Regardless, none of these companies will be able to build enough for several years to come, maybe even a decade. Each year there are millions of trucks sold just in the United States. Initial volumes for these EV trucks are only projected to be ~50,000/yr. So your comment is actually moot since all EV truck companies will sell as many as they can produce, the styling does not matter at all.

mey 5y ago
> the styling does not matter at all. Supply may be fully consumed, but demand may not be equal, allowing for one company to demand a higher premium on their product over another. Fantastic example of this is AMD slashing the price of the 5800x in response to Intel 12th gen. It's not like there isn't a chip shortage and supply isn't fully saturated.

thelastgallon 5y ago

Pickups are #1, #2, #3 selling in the US [1]. There is room for both Tesla and Rivian. Just make them! I bet the valuations of companies selling horseshoe, saddle, horses, stables, stagecoach, etc was high when Ford started out. Most people at that time may not have understood why Ford is valued so high when good money can be made selling saddles. Technology evolves. Ford and GM are now the companies making horseshoes and saddles. This is reflected in the insane valuations of pure EV companies. Rooting for both Tesla and Rivian to be successful! [1] https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g36005989/best-selling-cars-2021/ https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g36005989/best-selling-car...

enos_feedler 5y ago
The interesting thing will be the intersection of people who love trucks and also are willing to go electric. Most of my truck loving friends are in my home town where there is quite literally no teslas and nobody wants anything to do with electric vehicles.
- mrgordon 5y ago
  Soon they won’t have a choice
  - enos_feedler 5y ago
    Yes eventually, but the key question here is timing. There choice needs to be removed within a window that enables Rivian to own the market. If we are talking 10+ years out (which I think is likely) then Rivian will be dead and EV will be a commodity feature in all other cars.
cblconfederate 5y ago
It is surprising that this is not reflected in valuation of companies making hybrid vehicles
dnissley 5y ago
re: top selling vehicles being pick ups -- there's a big asterisk there: A significant portion of those vehicles are barebones, super low-cost work trucks, and on top of that Ford (the top seller) lumps literally all of their F-series together, without breaking them down into F-150, F-250, etc. some of which there will not be an electric replacement for many years.

drumhead 5y ago

I think the high valuation is indicative of a bubble. When companies that haven't delivered a product in an ultra competitive market can be valued at such an absurdly high level the alarm bells are ringing. We've seen this before in markets going back hundreds of years, it's not different this time, it never is.

sumedh 5y ago
Well you could argue that there has been a lot of money pumping done by the Fed so this time might be different :)
mrgordon 5y ago
They said the same thing about Tesla and it’s been working out quite well for them. I definitely favor the theory that it’s a bubble but even if it’s true “the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”
- drumhead 5y ago
  Is it different this time?

megablast 5y ago

The only explanation?? What is this rubbish?? How about people seeing them being the next Tesla and wanting to get in early?? And a dozen other reasons.

cblconfederate 5y ago

i guess this is ironic?

m0zg 5y ago

> Nobody who wants a work / camping / towing truck is going to buy a Cybertruck Yeah, and 1M+ "nobodies" have already put in pre-orders sight unseen, including me. /s Personally I think Rivian occupies a rather uncomfortable middle ground between a "traditional" truck, a market which will be dominated by Ford, and a "reimagined" truck, a market which will be dominated by Tesla. I'm sure they'll do reasonably well - rising tide lifts all boats, but perhaps not as well as the established players, unless they have some tricks up their sleeve that we don't know about.

cromwellian 5y ago

Doesn't the Cybertruck beat the R1T on like every conceivable metric? https://insideevs.com/features/434634/tesla-cybertruck-rivian-r1t-comparison-infographic/ https://insideevs.com/features/434634/tesla-cybertruck-rivia... Not only are most of the specs better, the price is better for the lower end versions, and get unique features like steel and armor glass. There was a toddler killed by a stray bullet on I-880 last weekend, I'm thinking he might have survived in a Cybertruck. Of course the downside is maybe gangs will start buying Cybertrucks and use them for drive bys.

1024core 5y ago
"This article comes to us courtesy of EVANNEX, which makes and sells aftermarket Tesla accessories." ... so appears to be a bit biased towards Tesla?
- panick21_ 5y ago
  Are you saying they falsified the specs given to them by the manufacturer?
- cromwellian 5y ago
  How about Kelly Blue Book? https://www.kbb.com/comparison/tesla-cybertruck-vs-rivian-r1t-comparison/ https://www.kbb.com/comparison/tesla-cybertruck-vs-rivian-r1... I mean, the stats on HP, range, towing capacity, etc are all publicly available.

sakopov 5y ago

The only justification for this valuation is the EV bubble. People are desperately looking for Tesla-like gains and they'll sink money into anything that'll get them there, so companies are using the opportunity to IPO at insane valuations. There is no other sane justification for this insane valuation for an auto-maker that makes 2 cars a day.

panick21_ 5y ago

> Nobody who wants a work / camping / towing truck is going to buy a Cybertruck. That people confidently say nonsense like this is just mind blowing. How the fuck do you know that? Do you think the almost a million preorders are all by programers? For a work truck you car about cost and performance, and Cybertruck beats the riven easily. The Rivian isn't close to being a work truck, they don't even advertise it as such. And to get that kind of valuation you need much more then a prototype, you need to produce 500k and even then the valuation is not justified.

sireat 5y ago

What is amazing that apparently investors are fine with having no say how the company is run: "Scaringe will hold all outstanding Class B common shares after the IPO and get 10 votes per share," The new normal (see Google, Facebook, Zynga, etc). You can own 6% of the company but retain full control. You get to have your cake and eat it too if you are a founder. As an investor in these modern Class A "shares" you are just playing the game of musical chairs. Where is the fundamental value in Class A ? It used to be that if you did not care for control, you either bought bonds or preferred shares.