It's not about "will", it's about ability. The fed funds rate is technically disconnected from, but highly correlated to, the TSY yield curve, particularly at

It's not about "will", it's about ability. The fed funds rate is technically disconnected from, but highly correlated to, the TSY yield curve, particularly at the short end. Our current sovereign debt-to-GDP ratio does not really permit a 10y TSY yield above about 4.5% without calling into question our ability to service the debt. Powell is painted into a corner - he simply can't hike significantly. He faces the short term prospect of a market tantrum (which the Fed is very sensitive to), but more importantly a long term sovereign servicing crisis. The good news is that the average maturity on the debt at 65 months means that the FRB can, if they choose, find the cajones to hike rates and then "retire for personal reasons" before the real pain hits, at which point it will be someone else's problem.