6 ms·

I think sometime in the last year or two this issue has transformed into something that you could argue one way or another to something that's obvious: the Chin

I think sometime in the last year or two this issue has transformed into something that you could argue one way or another to something that's obvious: the Chinese are actively and purposefully trying to break into computers around the world. This is a policy of their government. Motives are still unclear. Everyone seems to agree on punishing dissidents and suppressing political groups they don't like. Most folks (I think) think it's pretty obvious they're trying to steal U.S. (and foreign) military secrets. Industrial secrets also look high on the list. Perhaps it's all of the above. And more. My money says they're out to steal anything they can. Now that the discussion is beginning to yield conclusions -- most people agree that this exists and is a problem -- the interesting thing is what to do about it. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see a lot happening in the next couple of years. But pressure will increase domestically in democracies to provide some kind of relief from this. Would a new administration in the U.S. be more confrontational? Would we start a more public counter hacking effort? Does this just heat up more and more as both sides escalate without dealing with the underlying problem? Or does one side or another try to get some resolution? If the politicians continue to dodge it, does it at some point just blow up? This is going to be a fascinating story to watch play out over the next decade or so.

SoftwareMaven 15y ago
Until we can get our budget under control, nothing will happen. You can't tell the guy paying the electric bill to 'F off' if you still want to have heat in the winter. The most important reasons for us to get our finances and oil use under control are all national security related. I don't understand how the neocon camp doesn't understand that.
- rapind 15y ago
  If you constitue a significant amount of the electric guy's revenue, and he already has a massive amount invested in you, then actually yes, you might very well be able to tell him to temporarily F off and still get heat in the winter so long as he thinks you'll become profitable again one day. That being said, I do agree it's a good idea to get your finances under control.
- bzbarsky 15y ago
  Getting our budget under control is "simple". It just requires some combination of less savings by the US private sector, less savings or higher deficits for state and local governments, and a reduction in the trade deficit, due to the basic accounting identity: private savings + public savings = trade surplus Here deficits are negative public savings, so reducing deficits means increasing public savings; the rest follows. Reducing private savings is mostly what we did to keep the deficit down in the 90s. I'm not sure how feasible it is as a strategy now, given that private savings in the US have been so low for so long; people can't really keep spending more than they make. Which means that what really needs to happen is a reduction in the trade deficit. This is also known as having a lower dollar (and in particular, a higher-against-the-dollar renmibi). The good news is that getting the renmibi to rise against the dollar is also "simple": just get the PBoC to stop buying US assets (that includes US government bonds) to artificially hold the renmibi down. That will both help the US employment situation (giving us more headroom in terms of private saving) and increase US exports while decreasing US imports. Basically, at the moment China is using currency intervention to export unemployment and government budget deficits to the US via the trade deficit. To get the US economy to rebalance and be sane, that needs to stop. Of course we could keep the trade balance as now while cutting government spending and increasing taxes, the way we seem to be headed. That exactly corresponds to reduced private savings. We could do that for a bit perhaps, but it's really not sustainable as things stand.
127001brewer 15y ago
In my opinion, the motives are very clear: it's significantly cheaper to steal technologies and trade secrets than to develop or license them (for both the commercial and military spaces). And the burden of security should fall on each individual company and government agency. We don't need a "public counter hacking effort" if these entities implement security correctly and effectively. This will be a story that will continue to grow in the near future.
- AJ007 15y ago
  I expect that a lot of stuff involving private companies will play out in the civil court system. Asset seizures are more likely than trade sanctions. Up until now many US companies have been afraid of China and the possibility of losing their ability to do business there. Once you are locked out of that market for other reasons, those fears vanish.
cpeterso 15y ago
Could the US create a "digital moat" isolating China's internet? Would that be considered an act of war if the network was disconnected on US soil (e.g. MAE-West)?
- VladRussian 15y ago
  that is unfortunately double-edged proposition as severing the Internet connection would also mean that US couldn't spy on China as well. The goal of Internet war isn't to avoid it, the goal is to win.
- deleted 15y ago
  [deleted]
- nradov 15y ago
  No point. The crackers would just route their attacks through compromised nodes in other countries.
analyst74 15y ago
So I followed Reddit discussion and found the supposedly original video from cctv7: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_Wu1HlZbBk&feature=youtu.be&t=36s http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_Wu1HlZbBk&feature=youtu... To summarize the whole video: The Americans have started cyber-warfare long time ago, with militarized cyber-war division. Other countries are also catching up. Our infrastructure is highly dependant on Internet but our ability to defend ourselves is not up-to-par. The government is doing x,y,z to catch up and hopefully able to defend ourselves in the future. It's funny how this message sounds so familiar, even though I have not followed cctv channels for many many years... right, all you need to do is replace "America" with "China", you will find the American counter-part of Chinese propaganda channels. Damn, where can I sign up for propaganda-free media?

SoftwareMaven 15y ago

Until we can get our budget under control, nothing will happen. You can't tell the guy paying the electric bill to 'F off' if you still want to have heat in the winter. The most important reasons for us to get our finances and oil use under control are all national security related. I don't understand how the neocon camp doesn't understand that.

rapind 15y ago
If you constitue a significant amount of the electric guy's revenue, and he already has a massive amount invested in you, then actually yes, you might very well be able to tell him to temporarily F off and still get heat in the winter so long as he thinks you'll become profitable again one day. That being said, I do agree it's a good idea to get your finances under control.
bzbarsky 15y ago
Getting our budget under control is "simple". It just requires some combination of less savings by the US private sector, less savings or higher deficits for state and local governments, and a reduction in the trade deficit, due to the basic accounting identity: private savings + public savings = trade surplus Here deficits are negative public savings, so reducing deficits means increasing public savings; the rest follows. Reducing private savings is mostly what we did to keep the deficit down in the 90s. I'm not sure how feasible it is as a strategy now, given that private savings in the US have been so low for so long; people can't really keep spending more than they make. Which means that what really needs to happen is a reduction in the trade deficit. This is also known as having a lower dollar (and in particular, a higher-against-the-dollar renmibi). The good news is that getting the renmibi to rise against the dollar is also "simple": just get the PBoC to stop buying US assets (that includes US government bonds) to artificially hold the renmibi down. That will both help the US employment situation (giving us more headroom in terms of private saving) and increase US exports while decreasing US imports. Basically, at the moment China is using currency intervention to export unemployment and government budget deficits to the US via the trade deficit. To get the US economy to rebalance and be sane, that needs to stop. Of course we could keep the trade balance as now while cutting government spending and increasing taxes, the way we seem to be headed. That exactly corresponds to reduced private savings. We could do that for a bit perhaps, but it's really not sustainable as things stand.

127001brewer 15y ago

In my opinion, the motives are very clear: it's significantly cheaper to steal technologies and trade secrets than to develop or license them (for both the commercial and military spaces). And the burden of security should fall on each individual company and government agency. We don't need a "public counter hacking effort" if these entities implement security correctly and effectively. This will be a story that will continue to grow in the near future.

AJ007 15y ago
I expect that a lot of stuff involving private companies will play out in the civil court system. Asset seizures are more likely than trade sanctions. Up until now many US companies have been afraid of China and the possibility of losing their ability to do business there. Once you are locked out of that market for other reasons, those fears vanish.

cpeterso 15y ago

Could the US create a "digital moat" isolating China's internet? Would that be considered an act of war if the network was disconnected on US soil (e.g. MAE-West)?

VladRussian 15y ago
that is unfortunately double-edged proposition as severing the Internet connection would also mean that US couldn't spy on China as well. The goal of Internet war isn't to avoid it, the goal is to win.
deleted 15y ago
[deleted]
nradov 15y ago
No point. The crackers would just route their attacks through compromised nodes in other countries.

analyst74 15y ago

So I followed Reddit discussion and found the supposedly original video from cctv7: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_Wu1HlZbBk&feature=youtu.be&t=36s http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_Wu1HlZbBk&feature=youtu... To summarize the whole video: The Americans have started cyber-warfare long time ago, with militarized cyber-war division. Other countries are also catching up. Our infrastructure is highly dependant on Internet but our ability to defend ourselves is not up-to-par. The government is doing x,y,z to catch up and hopefully able to defend ourselves in the future. It's funny how this message sounds so familiar, even though I have not followed cctv channels for many many years... right, all you need to do is replace "America" with "China", you will find the American counter-part of Chinese propaganda channels. Damn, where can I sign up for propaganda-free media?