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> Bay Area techworker total comp has gone up like 50% since COVID [, so houses are actually more affordable.] That's a pretty shocking claim, even if you're ex

> Bay Area techworker total comp has gone up like 50% since COVID [, so houses are actually more affordable.] That's a pretty shocking claim, even if you're exaggerating to make a point; do you happen to know if anyone is tracking any data for this? The only data that I can find (non-tech worker) seems to indicate that things are still significantly worse in California and the Bay Area specifically, versus the country as a whole. This is dated Nov 2021, but it's not tech-focused, and, well, things don't look great: https://www.bls.gov/regions/west/summary/blssummary_sanfrancisco.pdf https://www.bls.gov/regions/west/summary/blssummary_sanfranc...

nostrademons 5y ago
It's based on stock prices and levels.fyi (which itself has pretty shocking numbers, eg. new grad comp at any of the FANGs is pushing $200K/year). Stock prices of most of these companies have doubled in the last year; some recent IPOs (eg. Coinbase, Roblox) have gone up 10x. Someone who gets paid 50% in stock at a FANG, which is pretty typical from the levels.fyi data, has seen their comp go up 50%. Someone at one of the recent IPOs with a pre-IPO grant is getting paid in the multi-millions per year. Things are significantly worse if you are not in tech, but then you are not buying houses. Things are significantly worse if you are not in tech largely because you are not buying houses - everybody who is not in tech is largely getting squeezed out of homeownership here. This too is part of my prediction for the rest of the country.
- 88913527 5y ago
  If 50% of your income is RSUs, and they increase in value by 50%, your total compensation rises 25%. Ex: $100k base, $100k stock. 50% RSU appreciation = $150k. TC rises from $200k to $250k (100+100 => 100+150).
  - nostrademons 5y ago
    Yes. Stock price has doubled (sometimes more). If 50% of your income is RSUs and the RSUs increase in value by 100%, your total compensation rises 50%.
- chii 5y ago
  > Someone at one of the recent IPOs with a pre-IPO grant is getting paid in the multi-millions per year. someone with existing grants should not use that grant when considering their compensation _this year_, even tho it's vested this year. Only new grants granted this year should be considered your compensation. Otherwise, you're not taking into account the risk of holding equity - a priced risk. Imagine if you were paid in lottery tickets - if you happened to win with those tickets, you still would not consider the old tickets that won as this year's compensation.
  - nostrademons 5y ago
    Eh, depends on context. When figuring out your personal financial budget, you're right. There's risk involved in being paid in equity, and stocks can go down as well as up. Plus, people paid in cash can also receive an equivalent deal by buying futures when they start their job, effectively paying a premium to take on that same market risk. When explaining why houses are priced the way they are, the market value of today's stock compensation absolutely matters, because that's the resources that your competition has available to buy houses. You can look at it as an asset swap: you are trading 1000 shares of GOOG, and the rest of the homebuying demographic also has 1000 shares of GOOG. If GOOG is trading at $1500/share, that's worth $1.5M; if GOOG is trading at $3000/share, that's worth $3M. To use your analogy - imagine that you're paid in lottery tickets, but everybody else in your town is also paid in lottery tickets with the same numbers. If your lucky number does not come up, you all remain poor and houses cost $100K. If your lucky number does come up, you all get $100M, but suddenly houses cost $100M too because new houses have not magically appeared for everybody to buy.

nostrademons 5y ago

It's based on stock prices and levels.fyi (which itself has pretty shocking numbers, eg. new grad comp at any of the FANGs is pushing $200K/year). Stock prices of most of these companies have doubled in the last year; some recent IPOs (eg. Coinbase, Roblox) have gone up 10x. Someone who gets paid 50% in stock at a FANG, which is pretty typical from the levels.fyi data, has seen their comp go up 50%. Someone at one of the recent IPOs with a pre-IPO grant is getting paid in the multi-millions per year. Things are significantly worse if you are not in tech, but then you are not buying houses. Things are significantly worse if you are not in tech largely because you are not buying houses - everybody who is not in tech is largely getting squeezed out of homeownership here. This too is part of my prediction for the rest of the country.

88913527 5y ago
If 50% of your income is RSUs, and they increase in value by 50%, your total compensation rises 25%. Ex: $100k base, $100k stock. 50% RSU appreciation = $150k. TC rises from $200k to $250k (100+100 => 100+150).
- nostrademons 5y ago
  Yes. Stock price has doubled (sometimes more). If 50% of your income is RSUs and the RSUs increase in value by 100%, your total compensation rises 50%.
chii 5y ago
> Someone at one of the recent IPOs with a pre-IPO grant is getting paid in the multi-millions per year. someone with existing grants should not use that grant when considering their compensation _this year_, even tho it's vested this year. Only new grants granted this year should be considered your compensation. Otherwise, you're not taking into account the risk of holding equity - a priced risk. Imagine if you were paid in lottery tickets - if you happened to win with those tickets, you still would not consider the old tickets that won as this year's compensation.
- nostrademons 5y ago
  Eh, depends on context. When figuring out your personal financial budget, you're right. There's risk involved in being paid in equity, and stocks can go down as well as up. Plus, people paid in cash can also receive an equivalent deal by buying futures when they start their job, effectively paying a premium to take on that same market risk. When explaining why houses are priced the way they are, the market value of today's stock compensation absolutely matters, because that's the resources that your competition has available to buy houses. You can look at it as an asset swap: you are trading 1000 shares of GOOG, and the rest of the homebuying demographic also has 1000 shares of GOOG. If GOOG is trading at $1500/share, that's worth $1.5M; if GOOG is trading at $3000/share, that's worth $3M. To use your analogy - imagine that you're paid in lottery tickets, but everybody else in your town is also paid in lottery tickets with the same numbers. If your lucky number does not come up, you all remain poor and houses cost $100K. If your lucky number does come up, you all get $100M, but suddenly houses cost $100M too because new houses have not magically appeared for everybody to buy.