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One in four vaccinated people in households with a Covid-19 case become infected
- GaryTang 5y agoIf vaccination doesn’t stop transmission, could you say it provides a breeding ground for more resillient/contagious strains of the virus?
- nradov 5y agoWhat does you mean by resilient? That's not really a specific term in virology. The current thinking is that new variants are most likely to evolve in immunocompromised patients who suffer from persistent infections. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/covid-variants-may-arise-in-people-with-compromised-immune-systems/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/covid-variants-ma...
- abcc8 5y agoNo, the vaccine does not 'provide a breeding ground' for the virus. Quite the opposite, the vaccine reduces the potential pool of individuals it can infect. Baseline here is an unvaccinated population, not an idealized scenario with zero transmission among the vaccinated.
- GaryTang 5y agoThe reason I ask is because I think of how superbugs have come about and wonder if we’re not doing the same thing with COVID-19.
- loceng 5y agoThere's growing evidence that this is occurring; I'm not going to bother gathering links to articles/videos, the ideological mob toeing the mainstream narrative on HN is strong.
- dqv 5y agoThere are plenty of us who are interested so long as it’s not garbage like Twitter or Breitbart. The worst that can happen is your karma takes a hit.
- cema 5y agoWould be useful to have a list of the sites we currently consider garbage.
- perl4ever 5y agoI have discovered a truly marvelous proof of this, which this commenting space is too narrow to contain.
- mensetmanusman 5y agoWe need the Sir Andy Wiles of HN to fill in the details! https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wiles%27s_proof_of_Fermat%27s_Last_Theorem https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wiles%27s_proof_of_Fermat%27...
- helloworld11 5y agoPersonally, I'd love to see the links and have a look. No downvote on my part. Quite the contrary for posts that try to sincerely substantiate a contrarian argument. And agreed, there's lots of nearly hysterical ideological thinking on this site, by people who seem to justify just about any policy proposal so long as it claims to "stop the spread", and discount as "misinformation" even valid, reasoned criticisms of contentious mainstream policies.
- GaryTang 5y agoFrom lioeters comment, supporting the argument: > "They might serve as sort of a breeding ground for the virus to acquire new mutations." Vaccines Could Drive The Evolution Of More COVID-19 Mutants - https://text.npr.org/965703047 https://text.npr.org/965703047
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- lioeters 5y ago> "They might serve as sort of a breeding ground for the virus to acquire new mutations." Vaccines Could Drive The Evolution Of More COVID-19 Mutants - https://text.npr.org/965703047 https://text.npr.org/965703047
- nojokes 5y agoImportant factor is number of mutations. If vaccines cut the number of infections in half, it would be twice less mutations so two times less to generate a beneficial mutation. More we are able to cut down transmission, less possibility there is for mutations to occur.
- nradov 5y agoThis confirms Andrew Pollard's statement that there will be no significant herd immunity effect. https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immunity-not-possible-astrazeneca-developer-2021-8?r=US&IR=T https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...
- amanaplanacanal 5y agoHonestly of it keeps people out of hospitals, that’s good enough for me. Overwhelming the healthcare system seems like the worst case scenario.
- yorwba 5y agoIt doesn't. Consider a household with less than five members (index case + less than four others). "One in four" means that less than one additional household member will get infected on average, i.e. herd immunity at the household level is achievable. Whether that translates into herd immunity at the population level is a different question that requires information about transmission between households.
- mensetmanusman 5y agoYour body is built around instructions. Bad instructions, eg. viruses, will be read even if you have an immune system prepared by prior exposure or, to a sometimes lesser extent, most current vaccines. A single read/write of a single virion can be measure as an infection with sufficient pcr cycles (may take 60…). Everyone will eventually get this endemic virus, but many will never notice, even those who are vaccinated.
- listless 5y agoI got it. Vaccinated double Moderna. My whole family and entire friend group got it at the same time. I didn’t go to the hospital but I was damn sick. But none of my friends went to the hospital and many were not vaccinated. All in all, there was no difference between those of us who were vaccinated and those who were not. Take that anecdote for exactly what it is.
- nojokes 5y agoUnfortunately vaccine efficacy is calculated on the population level and Delta is a bitch. I feel sorry for you but as much I know, you need incredible luck to get infected again.
- mensetmanusman 5y agoIt’s statistics. You have constant infection attempts over time, especially indoors, so you have to keep factoring and multiplying the likelihood you won’t get infected to get a better sense. E.g consider the likelihood you flip five heads in a row as analogous to how likely you wont get infected after five separate extended exposure events (eg hour in doors with no air filtration).
- Olumde 5y agoCould this be because the existing vaccines were developed to generate immunity against the original strain of Covid? In other words would a new vaccine based on delta produce better results?
- nojokes 5y agoNo. The difference is mostly in viral load. Delta can seriously ramp up its production and make an infected person infectious in 1-2 days. Only neutralizing antibodies can counter this so fast and 2 dose regimen dose to build level high enough often enough. Increase from booster is 5 fold compared to the level from 2nd dos and is even higher for seniors. Levels of neutralizing antibodies that work against Wuhan variant and Delta variant are about the same.
- bdcravens 5y agoBoth my wife and I are vaccinated. She caught COVID about 3 weeks ago. I had quite a few reasons to assume I'd catch it as well, but I never did (tested twice during the course of her infection)
- machinevision 5y agoDid your wife get severely sick or were her symptoms mild?
- bdcravens 5y agoSuper mild. Light sniffles, some headache, etc. She learned of it when she was having an outpatient test for something unrelated.
- renewiltord 5y agoAnecdotally, out of my gang of 6 who went to a concert a couple of weeks ago, 4 of us got sick. I genuinely don’t know how I didn’t, considering everything. All of us were vaccinated of course.
- Terretta 5y agoNo judgment, part curiosity and part how to relate to risk management decision making — what was the thinking about going to the concert beforehand?
- renewiltord 5y agoWe’re vaccinated, in a very low risk population, and have multiple homes to quarantine in. The net risk to mental health of not partying and going out is way higher than the low risk of falling ill. Things that we didn’t account for: - some of us had to miss Halloween, should account for social event temporal proximity - we were able to quarantine together and spend time in each other’s company, so getting sick at the same time is the best