4 ms·

This is a good article. I'm firmly on team do-what-it-takes-to-stop-the-spread, but no one has an exit strategy. I got a booster and we have appointments for tw

This is a good article. I'm firmly on team do-what-it-takes-to-stop-the-spread, but no one has an exit strategy. I got a booster and we have appointments for two of our three kids to get there first shot. By mid-December I'm hoping to not have to think much about it anymore. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/11/what-americas-covid-goal-now/620572/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/11/what-amer...

Filligree 5y ago
There are two possible exit strategies. - Vaccinate everyone who can be vaccinated, at gunpoint. - Allow everyone who is vulnerable to die, at which point the death rates will drop. Choose. Which one do you want?
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- swader999 5y ago
  You can't produce, distribute and vaccinate everyone at gun point fast enough before it mutates away from what your vax targeted. And this strategy ignores animal reservoirs where the virus can reside and come back.
  - Filligree 5y ago
    So the second one, then?
  - rpmisms 5y ago
    > You can't produce, distribute and vaccinate everyone at gun point In the US, this is a very bad idea, indeed.
Vrondi 5y ago
You mean you're going to skip the rest of the boosters they'll want you to get each quarter forever?
- jayknight 5y ago
  Not what I said. I, and my whole family, get flu shots every year. I wouldn't mind also getting one for covid if it is determined to help me and my community.
salemh 5y ago
Your children do not need it - perhaps you should evaluate whether they are in an 'at risk' category like the Nordics https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01897-w https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01897-w In the US, 340 children under 17 have died from Covid. Total. During the same period, 187 have died from the flu, and over 51,000 children have died from all causes: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#SexAndAge https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#Se... Sweden halts Moderna: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vaccine-moderna-sweden-halts-use-in-under-30s/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vaccine-moderna-sweden-ha... The reason the vaccines aren't being approved for children is that there is compelling evidence that children are at greater risk from the vaccines than the virus. This is why (for example) approval for vaccination of children and teenagers is split across Europe, and the UK has restricted access to only children with known vulnerabilities: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-19/u-k-to-give-covid-19-vaccines-only-to-most-vulnerable-children https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-19/u-k-to-gi...
- simoneau 5y ago
  I though most of the point of vaxing children and other low-risk groups is to stop the spread, not for their own individual safety. Reducing the chance they'll infect grandma. And reducing the circulating pool of infections to prevent more virulent strains from developing. Have I got this wrong?
  - swader999 5y ago
    I think Delta is still above r0 1 in vaccinated. Delta plus is worse. So there will be spread amongst vaccinated. Not as much as unvaccinated but with vaccinated conditioned to think they are safe I don't see it solving much in the medium to longer term. A high population of vaccinated is mathematically more likely to produce more virulent strains with a non sterile vaccine in a fast mutating virus.
    - jayknight 5y ago
      > A high population of vaccinated is mathematically more likely to produce more virulent strains with a non sterile vaccine in a fast mutating virus. Not so. Lots of cases produce worse variants, not vaccines. https://theconversation.com/massive-numbers-of-new-covid-19-infections-not-vaccines-are-the-main-driver-of-new-coronavirus-variants-166882 https://theconversation.com/massive-numbers-of-new-covid-19-...
nradov 5y ago
I encourage everyone eligible to get vaccinated, but at this point there is zero possibility to stop the spread. Your "team" never had a chance. We can all expect to get infected eventually. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immunity-not-possible-astrazeneca-developer-2021-8?r=US&IR=T https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...
- jayknight 5y ago
  By "stop", I guess I really mean slow/reduce/flatten-the-curve, etc. It's all a game of probabilities, and I guess I'm on team lets-work-together-as-a-society-to-reduce-the-chances-of-getting-and-spreading-sars-cov2. But that's slightly less catchy.
  - angelzen 5y ago
    Are there any other considerents in life, or reduce-the-chances-of-getting-and-spreading-sars-cov2 is the only metric of relevance? Can you conceptualize any possible anti-covid measure that has too little of a benefit for too high of a cost, such that we should not deploy (or mandate!) it?
    - aakresearch 5y ago
      Perfect question, I was thinking of asking it here as well. I'll just expand it with a couple of points: - What would the properties of vaccines need to be (efficacy, etc.), for experts to deem the vax mandates not reasonable? - Same about face masks. How low the estimated efficiency must be for mandates to not be acceptable? - Bonus point: how more soul-crushing the curfews and other movement limits need to be for them to remain in the realm of personal choice? In other words, I would like to gauge how "falsifiable" is the "scientifically-informed" reasoning behind covid-enthusiasts' defense doctrine.

Filligree 5y ago

There are two possible exit strategies. - Vaccinate everyone who can be vaccinated, at gunpoint. - Allow everyone who is vulnerable to die, at which point the death rates will drop. Choose. Which one do you want?

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
swader999 5y ago
You can't produce, distribute and vaccinate everyone at gun point fast enough before it mutates away from what your vax targeted. And this strategy ignores animal reservoirs where the virus can reside and come back.
- Filligree 5y ago
  So the second one, then?
- rpmisms 5y ago
  > You can't produce, distribute and vaccinate everyone at gun point In the US, this is a very bad idea, indeed.

Vrondi 5y ago

You mean you're going to skip the rest of the boosters they'll want you to get each quarter forever?

jayknight 5y ago
Not what I said. I, and my whole family, get flu shots every year. I wouldn't mind also getting one for covid if it is determined to help me and my community.

salemh 5y ago

Your children do not need it - perhaps you should evaluate whether they are in an 'at risk' category like the Nordics https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01897-w https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01897-w In the US, 340 children under 17 have died from Covid. Total. During the same period, 187 have died from the flu, and over 51,000 children have died from all causes: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#SexAndAge https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#Se... Sweden halts Moderna: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vaccine-moderna-sweden-halts-use-in-under-30s/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vaccine-moderna-sweden-ha... The reason the vaccines aren't being approved for children is that there is compelling evidence that children are at greater risk from the vaccines than the virus. This is why (for example) approval for vaccination of children and teenagers is split across Europe, and the UK has restricted access to only children with known vulnerabilities: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-19/u-k-to-give-covid-19-vaccines-only-to-most-vulnerable-children https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-19/u-k-to-gi...

simoneau 5y ago
I though most of the point of vaxing children and other low-risk groups is to stop the spread, not for their own individual safety. Reducing the chance they'll infect grandma. And reducing the circulating pool of infections to prevent more virulent strains from developing. Have I got this wrong?
- swader999 5y ago
  I think Delta is still above r0 1 in vaccinated. Delta plus is worse. So there will be spread amongst vaccinated. Not as much as unvaccinated but with vaccinated conditioned to think they are safe I don't see it solving much in the medium to longer term. A high population of vaccinated is mathematically more likely to produce more virulent strains with a non sterile vaccine in a fast mutating virus.
  - jayknight 5y ago
    > A high population of vaccinated is mathematically more likely to produce more virulent strains with a non sterile vaccine in a fast mutating virus. Not so. Lots of cases produce worse variants, not vaccines. https://theconversation.com/massive-numbers-of-new-covid-19-infections-not-vaccines-are-the-main-driver-of-new-coronavirus-variants-166882 https://theconversation.com/massive-numbers-of-new-covid-19-...

nradov 5y ago

I encourage everyone eligible to get vaccinated, but at this point there is zero possibility to stop the spread. Your "team" never had a chance. We can all expect to get infected eventually. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immunity-not-possible-astrazeneca-developer-2021-8?r=US&IR=T https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...

jayknight 5y ago
By "stop", I guess I really mean slow/reduce/flatten-the-curve, etc. It's all a game of probabilities, and I guess I'm on team lets-work-together-as-a-society-to-reduce-the-chances-of-getting-and-spreading-sars-cov2. But that's slightly less catchy.
- angelzen 5y ago
  Are there any other considerents in life, or reduce-the-chances-of-getting-and-spreading-sars-cov2 is the only metric of relevance? Can you conceptualize any possible anti-covid measure that has too little of a benefit for too high of a cost, such that we should not deploy (or mandate!) it?
  - aakresearch 5y ago
    Perfect question, I was thinking of asking it here as well. I'll just expand it with a couple of points: - What would the properties of vaccines need to be (efficacy, etc.), for experts to deem the vax mandates not reasonable? - Same about face masks. How low the estimated efficiency must be for mandates to not be acceptable? - Bonus point: how more soul-crushing the curfews and other movement limits need to be for them to remain in the realm of personal choice? In other words, I would like to gauge how "falsifiable" is the "scientifically-informed" reasoning behind covid-enthusiasts' defense doctrine.