4 ms·

https://archive.ph/5LWlK https://archive.ph/5LWlK

roywiggins 5y ago
Those statistics say nothing about the chances of going to hospital if you are vaccinated. Currently, the deaths-per-100k of the unvaccinated vs vaccinated population is twelve times higher. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/10/28/us/covid-breakthrough-cases.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/10/28/us/covid-brea...
- angelzen 5y ago
  The article also shows that deaths-per-100k is highly dependent on age. "“Age is our top risk factor for vaccine breakthrough deaths,” said Theresa Sokol, the state epidemiologist in Louisiana, one of the jurisdictions that contributed to the C.D.C. data.". In 12-17 and 18-29, deaths-per-100k are essentially 0 for both vaccinated and unvaccinated. This is fantastic news for kids of grade school age: they can live their lives for the next 20 years without having to worry about covid medical risks.
  - roywiggins 5y ago
    The even better news is that by the time they're older, they'll probably have substantial immunity to it anyway.
AndrewThrowaway 5y ago
It could also show age of patients. There is no doubt about vaccine efficacy. However it all depends. On your age, on your illnesses, on strains of virus. Who knows what you will get in 2 years. So people who say that "pfft it is only 2% chance and only if you get" are just denying it. You will get COVID. Hopefully you get it after a few years when there are not only vaccines but drugs widely available.
timr 5y ago
This is meaningless without context. What percentage of the population is vaccinated? How old are the patients? What percentage of the hospitalized are extremely old/frail/comprosmised? Remember: if 100% of your population is vaccinated, then 100% of your hospitalizations and deaths will be in vaccinated people. https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-...
tzs 5y ago
When both the risks and vaccination rates are significantly different across demographic groups statistics for the whole population are often nearly useless due to Simpson's paradox. Depending on how we define severe COVID you link is showing between 36% and 44% of the severe COVID patients at the hospital are vaccinated. That's similar to what they have seen in Israel. As of about a month ago they were seeing about 60% of their severe cases were in vaccinated people. Sounds pretty bad for vaccines, right? It does until you remember Simpson's paradox and take a finer look at the data [1]. It turns out that the Israel data showed in each age group efficacy against severe COVID ranging from 81.1% to 100%, with above 92% in all the 10 year age groups under 60 and still above 88% is the 10 years groups through 80. It is very likely a similar thing is going on at the hospital whose data you linked to. That's been the case for every place I've come across in the US that published breakdowns of the stats by age group. [1] https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-...

Those statistics say nothing about the chances of going to hospital if you are vaccinated. Currently, the deaths-per-100k of the unvaccinated vs vaccinated population is twelve times higher. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/10/28/us/covid-breakthrough-cases.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/10/28/us/covid-brea...

angelzen 5y ago
The article also shows that deaths-per-100k is highly dependent on age. "“Age is our top risk factor for vaccine breakthrough deaths,” said Theresa Sokol, the state epidemiologist in Louisiana, one of the jurisdictions that contributed to the C.D.C. data.". In 12-17 and 18-29, deaths-per-100k are essentially 0 for both vaccinated and unvaccinated. This is fantastic news for kids of grade school age: they can live their lives for the next 20 years without having to worry about covid medical risks.
- roywiggins 5y ago
  The even better news is that by the time they're older, they'll probably have substantial immunity to it anyway.

AndrewThrowaway 5y ago

It could also show age of patients. There is no doubt about vaccine efficacy. However it all depends. On your age, on your illnesses, on strains of virus. Who knows what you will get in 2 years. So people who say that "pfft it is only 2% chance and only if you get" are just denying it. You will get COVID. Hopefully you get it after a few years when there are not only vaccines but drugs widely available.

timr 5y ago

This is meaningless without context. What percentage of the population is vaccinated? How old are the patients? What percentage of the hospitalized are extremely old/frail/comprosmised? Remember: if 100% of your population is vaccinated, then 100% of your hospitalizations and deaths will be in vaccinated people. https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-...

tzs 5y ago

When both the risks and vaccination rates are significantly different across demographic groups statistics for the whole population are often nearly useless due to Simpson's paradox. Depending on how we define severe COVID you link is showing between 36% and 44% of the severe COVID patients at the hospital are vaccinated. That's similar to what they have seen in Israel. As of about a month ago they were seeing about 60% of their severe cases were in vaccinated people. Sounds pretty bad for vaccines, right? It does until you remember Simpson's paradox and take a finer look at the data [1]. It turns out that the Israel data showed in each age group efficacy against severe COVID ranging from 81.1% to 100%, with above 92% in all the 10 year age groups under 60 and still above 88% is the 10 years groups through 80. It is very likely a similar thing is going on at the hospital whose data you linked to. That's been the case for every place I've come across in the US that published breakdowns of the stats by age group. [1] https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-...