5 ms·

Comparable individual outcome, worse societal outcome - you still spread it, so no reduction in overall cases, unlike a vaccine.

helge9210 5y ago
Vaccine doesn't prevent spreading.
- ralmeida 5y ago
  Citation needed - and note I didn't say it prevents "100% of spreading"
- dbsmith83 5y ago
  No: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/vaccinated-people-are-less-likely-spread-covid-new-research-finds-n1280583 https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/vaccinated-people...
gadders 5y ago
I thought the latest research was that the vaccinated can still spread COVID?
- ralmeida 5y ago
  Some might, but not all, which is still a reduction
nradov 5y ago
I encourage everyone eligible to get vaccinated if they can, but it does little to prevent spread. Over the long run we'll all be exposed no matter what we do. The real benefit of vaccines is in reducing the risk of severe symptoms. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immunity-not-possible-astrazeneca-developer-2021-8?r=US&IR=T https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...
- dbsmith83 5y ago
  > ...but it does little to prevent spread. Actually it does reduce transmission https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/vaccinated-people-are-less-likely-spread-covid-new-research-finds-n1280583 https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/vaccinated-people...
  - nradov 5y ago
    Vaccination slightly reduces the risk of transmission for individual interactions (at least for a while) but that just stretches the curve out a little. Since SARS-CoV-2 is now endemic throughout the worldwide human population (plus several other mammal species) we can all expect to be exposed multiple times throughout our lives no matter what we do. Fortunately the vaccines are very effective at preventing deaths. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00648-4/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...
    - dbsmith83 5y ago
      > Vaccination slightly reduces the risk of transmission for individual interactions (at least for a while) but that just stretches the curve out a little... That's a disingenuous statement though because vaccines also help prevent getting infected in the first place, which reduces transmission. This study seems to focus on vaccinated people who had a breakthrough infection. If you read the 'Interpretation' section: > Vaccination reduces the risk of delta variant infection and accelerates viral clearance. Nonetheless, fully vaccinated individuals with breakthrough infections have peak viral load similar to unvaccinated cases and can efficiently transmit infection in household settings, including to fully vaccinated contacts. The first sentence implies vaccination reduces the risk of getting infection. The second sentence is talking about vaccinated people with a breakthrough infection having similar viral load. Therefore saying "Vaccination slightly reduces the risk of transmission for individual interactions" is untrue because it ignores the infection prevention mechanism of the vaccine. It's a lot better than 'slightly'
- mikepurvis 5y ago
  I don't think either of those sources justifies "does little to prevent spread." The language used in them is considerably more hedged, eg: "But growing evidence suggests that, with the Delta variant, fully vaccinated people can still transmit the virus." And this: "Unfortunately, the vaccine’s beneficial effect on Delta transmission waned to almost negligible levels over time. In people infected 2 weeks after receiving the vaccine developed by the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca, both in the UK, the chance that an unvaccinated close contact would test positive was 57%, but 3 months later, that chance rose to 67%. The latter figure is on par with the likelihood that an unvaccinated person will spread the virus." Is also not super relevant— what most people want to know is not whether a breakthrough infection is capable of spreading it, but whether you're more likely to get a breakthrough infection. I think most vaccinated people (which is most people in rich countries now) care much more about the unvaccinated -> vaccinated transmission and the vaccinated -> vaccinated transmission than they do about vaccinated -> unvaccinated.
FjolsvithAase 5y ago
Yet, with the COVID vaccine, you still spread it, too: https://theexpose.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Pierpont-Why-mandated-vaccines-are-pointless-final-1.pdf https://theexpose.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Pierpont-Why... https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/pdfs/mm7031e2-H.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/pdfs/mm7031e2-H.pdf https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3897733 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3897733 So, how could the outcome at the societal level be worse?
- ralmeida 5y ago
  Do you have a source for R0 being _absolutely equal_ in vaccinated vs unvaccinated?
  - FjolsvithAase 5y ago
    Give them time.
    - ralmeida 5y ago
      Time can also yield better vaccines, a policy of recurring vaccine doses (like the yearly flu shots), and milder variants that can emerge and become dominant, like some believe is what happened with the Spanish Flu.
- chki 5y ago
  While a vaccine is not 100% effective in preventing the spread of new cases it is at least somewhat effective.

helge9210 5y ago

Vaccine doesn't prevent spreading.

ralmeida 5y ago
Citation needed - and note I didn't say it prevents "100% of spreading"
dbsmith83 5y ago
No: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/vaccinated-people-are-less-likely-spread-covid-new-research-finds-n1280583 https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/vaccinated-people...

gadders 5y ago

I thought the latest research was that the vaccinated can still spread COVID?

ralmeida 5y ago
Some might, but not all, which is still a reduction

nradov 5y ago

I encourage everyone eligible to get vaccinated if they can, but it does little to prevent spread. Over the long run we'll all be exposed no matter what we do. The real benefit of vaccines is in reducing the risk of severe symptoms. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immunity-not-possible-astrazeneca-developer-2021-8?r=US&IR=T https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...

dbsmith83 5y ago
> ...but it does little to prevent spread. Actually it does reduce transmission https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/vaccinated-people-are-less-likely-spread-covid-new-research-finds-n1280583 https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/vaccinated-people...
- nradov 5y ago
  Vaccination slightly reduces the risk of transmission for individual interactions (at least for a while) but that just stretches the curve out a little. Since SARS-CoV-2 is now endemic throughout the worldwide human population (plus several other mammal species) we can all expect to be exposed multiple times throughout our lives no matter what we do. Fortunately the vaccines are very effective at preventing deaths. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00648-4/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...
  - dbsmith83 5y ago
    > Vaccination slightly reduces the risk of transmission for individual interactions (at least for a while) but that just stretches the curve out a little... That's a disingenuous statement though because vaccines also help prevent getting infected in the first place, which reduces transmission. This study seems to focus on vaccinated people who had a breakthrough infection. If you read the 'Interpretation' section: > Vaccination reduces the risk of delta variant infection and accelerates viral clearance. Nonetheless, fully vaccinated individuals with breakthrough infections have peak viral load similar to unvaccinated cases and can efficiently transmit infection in household settings, including to fully vaccinated contacts. The first sentence implies vaccination reduces the risk of getting infection. The second sentence is talking about vaccinated people with a breakthrough infection having similar viral load. Therefore saying "Vaccination slightly reduces the risk of transmission for individual interactions" is untrue because it ignores the infection prevention mechanism of the vaccine. It's a lot better than 'slightly'
mikepurvis 5y ago
I don't think either of those sources justifies "does little to prevent spread." The language used in them is considerably more hedged, eg: "But growing evidence suggests that, with the Delta variant, fully vaccinated people can still transmit the virus." And this: "Unfortunately, the vaccine’s beneficial effect on Delta transmission waned to almost negligible levels over time. In people infected 2 weeks after receiving the vaccine developed by the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca, both in the UK, the chance that an unvaccinated close contact would test positive was 57%, but 3 months later, that chance rose to 67%. The latter figure is on par with the likelihood that an unvaccinated person will spread the virus." Is also not super relevant— what most people want to know is not whether a breakthrough infection is capable of spreading it, but whether you're more likely to get a breakthrough infection. I think most vaccinated people (which is most people in rich countries now) care much more about the unvaccinated -> vaccinated transmission and the vaccinated -> vaccinated transmission than they do about vaccinated -> unvaccinated.

FjolsvithAase 5y ago

Yet, with the COVID vaccine, you still spread it, too: https://theexpose.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Pierpont-Why-mandated-vaccines-are-pointless-final-1.pdf https://theexpose.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Pierpont-Why... https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/pdfs/mm7031e2-H.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/pdfs/mm7031e2-H.pdf https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3897733 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3897733 So, how could the outcome at the societal level be worse?

ralmeida 5y ago
Do you have a source for R0 being _absolutely equal_ in vaccinated vs unvaccinated?
- FjolsvithAase 5y ago
  Give them time.
  - ralmeida 5y ago
    Time can also yield better vaccines, a policy of recurring vaccine doses (like the yearly flu shots), and milder variants that can emerge and become dominant, like some believe is what happened with the Spanish Flu.
chki 5y ago
While a vaccine is not 100% effective in preventing the spread of new cases it is at least somewhat effective.