5 ms·

Inflation aside, I'm more concerned with civil unrest. This correlates very closely with food prices. Last time was the Arab spring (Jan 2011 basically)

by jb_s 5y ago

paulpauper 5y ago
2 data points. real convincing. people have been predicting unrest forever. they have a really poor track record at this. Living standards for most Americans are higher than ever. Food affordability is the least of America's problems.
- betwixthewires 5y ago
  > world food prices > Arab spring Emphasis mine. We aren't talking about America right now.
  - whymauri 5y ago
    Sure, but at any given time there is unrest in the world. Is there more convincing evidence for a causation? Did food in the Arab world rise even more than other countries? Is the general unrest, when dissected to specific regions, usually tied to higher food and water? Just pointing to a correlation when there's always some country in civil war or unrest seems a bit shaky. But I'm no expert on Arab countries, so I might just be naïve. It just feels like we're fitting causation to something that's pretty much always happening in the modern world.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    - bellyfullofbac 5y ago
      Tip, if you think you're being naive, don't insist that others don't know what they're talking about. Ctrl-F for "food": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Spring https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Spring , especially in the References.
      - whymauri 5y ago
        This website used to be clearer on correlations versus causation. I'm not going to die on this hill because food is likely a factor, but you do understand my fundamental point of correlation between factors when one of them is literally always happening, yes? Interestingly enough, one of my original questions is answered in the Wiki page. Food did rise more in the Arab world than other parts of the world (remember this from my original question? Or was it just ignored?), therefore the correlation might imply causation. Despite this, notice how this specific thread is about World prices and not trends in specific countries. Meaning that this thread is still correlating a constantly ongoing effect with a new trend, and, again, you can do this with anything. >Tip, if you think you're being naive, don't insist that others don't know what they're talking about. Literally never claimed that _anyone_ didn't know what they are talking about. On occasion, people on this website may want to admit their own knowledge gaps -- it's called self-awareness.
- jb_s 5y ago
  I didn't imply that was my proof. I simply asserted, based on my knowledge, that it correlates very closely. Feel free to do your own research to see whether data backs this up. I'll even type it into Google for you! :-) https://www.google.com/search?q=food+prices+civil+unrest https://www.google.com/search?q=food+prices+civil+unrest
- KennyBlanken 5y ago
  > Living standards for most Americans are higher than ever. We spend more on our military than the other top 5 or so nations combined, both in terms of total spending, spending vs GDP, and spending per capita. We just saw a massive transfer of wealth from 99.9% of the population to less than .1% since the pandemic (and even before that, economic inequality was the worst it's been in at least half a century). We're 10th in the world in terms of the most hours worked per week. We have some the worst (and most expensive) cellular coverage and wired internet, in the developed world. Food deserts are massive and have been growing for decades, in part thanks to supermarket chains running around permanently 'poisoning' commercial property with deed restrictions to try and lock out competitors. Childcare and housing is the least affordable it has ever been. Corporations like Walmart pay wages so poor they hire staff to help their employees file for welfare. The world's richest man pays his delivery drivers so poorly they have to piss in bottles, and has working conditions so poor he pays for private ambulances to be stationed outside his warehouses rather than, say, properly ventilate them Suicide rates for children and teens has skyrocketed. Most of the rest of the world, healthcare doesn't cost a patient a fucking dime but here 66% of personal bankruptcies are medical-cost related. Our life expectancy is one of the worst of developed nations (and generally declining); a child born today in the US is worse off than 34 other countries. Corporations have the smallest share of tax burden in history while also having nearly unlimited 'representation' in terms direct and indirect influence thanks to Citizens United; they buy elections and write the legislation. Road safety for anyone not in a car is the worst it's ever been and, again, among the worst in the developed world. Our personal privacy and freedom has been eroding at record rate since 2001 in the name of 'fighting terror' We're one of the most conservative nations in the world when it comes to almost any social policy matter. Did I forget anything?
  - jl6 5y ago
    > We're one of the most conservative nations in the world when it comes to almost any social policy matter. Struggling to understand this one…
bellyfullofbac 5y ago
The famous saying is that civilization is only 3 meals away from chaos. At least if we're talking about the rich countries, the government can always parachute food in. I can't imagine the whole of USA being hungry, when the first Covid lockdown almost caused this, suddenly every politician agreed to give everyone money (Socialism?! Handouts?! The alternative would've been political suicide, even the hardcore GOPs knew that). The buying power (or the credit power, the promise that "I'll pay you") of the rich countries mean they can buy food, in the burning planet future where there isn't actually enough food to go around, the rich governments will probably even buy someone else's food leaving them hungry, and when money isn't enough coercion, the military will be.
- coding123 5y ago
  But can we? We keep thinking all this stuff is stockpiled somewhere. We're the ventilators stockpiled, what about n95s, what about TP. No we are seconds away from running out of shit and that's just true.
- marcosdumay 5y ago
  The rich countries are rich because they produce high-value things. If the value relation changes against them, they will stop being rich quite quickly.

Inflation aside, I'm more concerned with civil unrest. This correlates very closely with food prices. Last time was the Arab spring (Jan 2011 basically)

by jb_s 5y ago

Inflation aside, I'm more concerned with civil unrest. This correlates very closely with food prices. Last time was the Arab spring (Jan 2011 basically)

paulpauper 5y ago

2 data points. real convincing. people have been predicting unrest forever. they have a really poor track record at this. Living standards for most Americans are higher than ever. Food affordability is the least of America's problems.

betwixthewires 5y ago
> world food prices > Arab spring Emphasis mine. We aren't talking about America right now.
- whymauri 5y ago
  Sure, but at any given time there is unrest in the world. Is there more convincing evidence for a causation? Did food in the Arab world rise even more than other countries? Is the general unrest, when dissected to specific regions, usually tied to higher food and water? Just pointing to a correlation when there's always some country in civil war or unrest seems a bit shaky. But I'm no expert on Arab countries, so I might just be naïve. It just feels like we're fitting causation to something that's pretty much always happening in the modern world.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - bellyfullofbac 5y ago
    Tip, if you think you're being naive, don't insist that others don't know what they're talking about. Ctrl-F for "food": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Spring https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Spring , especially in the References.
    - whymauri 5y ago
      This website used to be clearer on correlations versus causation. I'm not going to die on this hill because food is likely a factor, but you do understand my fundamental point of correlation between factors when one of them is literally always happening, yes? Interestingly enough, one of my original questions is answered in the Wiki page. Food did rise more in the Arab world than other parts of the world (remember this from my original question? Or was it just ignored?), therefore the correlation might imply causation. Despite this, notice how this specific thread is about World prices and not trends in specific countries. Meaning that this thread is still correlating a constantly ongoing effect with a new trend, and, again, you can do this with anything. >Tip, if you think you're being naive, don't insist that others don't know what they're talking about. Literally never claimed that _anyone_ didn't know what they are talking about. On occasion, people on this website may want to admit their own knowledge gaps -- it's called self-awareness.
jb_s 5y ago
I didn't imply that was my proof. I simply asserted, based on my knowledge, that it correlates very closely. Feel free to do your own research to see whether data backs this up. I'll even type it into Google for you! :-) https://www.google.com/search?q=food+prices+civil+unrest https://www.google.com/search?q=food+prices+civil+unrest
KennyBlanken 5y ago
> Living standards for most Americans are higher than ever. We spend more on our military than the other top 5 or so nations combined, both in terms of total spending, spending vs GDP, and spending per capita. We just saw a massive transfer of wealth from 99.9% of the population to less than .1% since the pandemic (and even before that, economic inequality was the worst it's been in at least half a century). We're 10th in the world in terms of the most hours worked per week. We have some the worst (and most expensive) cellular coverage and wired internet, in the developed world. Food deserts are massive and have been growing for decades, in part thanks to supermarket chains running around permanently 'poisoning' commercial property with deed restrictions to try and lock out competitors. Childcare and housing is the least affordable it has ever been. Corporations like Walmart pay wages so poor they hire staff to help their employees file for welfare. The world's richest man pays his delivery drivers so poorly they have to piss in bottles, and has working conditions so poor he pays for private ambulances to be stationed outside his warehouses rather than, say, properly ventilate them Suicide rates for children and teens has skyrocketed. Most of the rest of the world, healthcare doesn't cost a patient a fucking dime but here 66% of personal bankruptcies are medical-cost related. Our life expectancy is one of the worst of developed nations (and generally declining); a child born today in the US is worse off than 34 other countries. Corporations have the smallest share of tax burden in history while also having nearly unlimited 'representation' in terms direct and indirect influence thanks to Citizens United; they buy elections and write the legislation. Road safety for anyone not in a car is the worst it's ever been and, again, among the worst in the developed world. Our personal privacy and freedom has been eroding at record rate since 2001 in the name of 'fighting terror' We're one of the most conservative nations in the world when it comes to almost any social policy matter. Did I forget anything?
- jl6 5y ago
  > We're one of the most conservative nations in the world when it comes to almost any social policy matter. Struggling to understand this one…

bellyfullofbac 5y ago

The famous saying is that civilization is only 3 meals away from chaos. At least if we're talking about the rich countries, the government can always parachute food in. I can't imagine the whole of USA being hungry, when the first Covid lockdown almost caused this, suddenly every politician agreed to give everyone money (Socialism?! Handouts?! The alternative would've been political suicide, even the hardcore GOPs knew that). The buying power (or the credit power, the promise that "I'll pay you") of the rich countries mean they can buy food, in the burning planet future where there isn't actually enough food to go around, the rich governments will probably even buy someone else's food leaving them hungry, and when money isn't enough coercion, the military will be.

coding123 5y ago
But can we? We keep thinking all this stuff is stockpiled somewhere. We're the ventilators stockpiled, what about n95s, what about TP. No we are seconds away from running out of shit and that's just true.
marcosdumay 5y ago
The rich countries are rich because they produce high-value things. If the value relation changes against them, they will stop being rich quite quickly.