4 ms·

> Quant firms for the stock market in the early 90s False equivalence. The real estate business which Zillow failed is massively capital intensive, whereas fig

> Quant firms for the stock market in the early 90s False equivalence. The real estate business which Zillow failed is massively capital intensive, whereas figuring out a quant strategy is not necessarily so. In other words, it is very possible to go out of business before a business model is worked out (assuming there is an undiscovered, workable business model). Investors will not endlessly fund money losers, and Zillow is a huge money loser from both a income and cash flow perspective–a trend that predated their entry into the iBuyer space. Now you might say, the investor appetite for money losing Zillow is bottomless, just look at asset class X, which is totally unproven and yet has insane valuations. To which I would reply, "That is true until it isn't." One common characteristic of all financial bubbles is that its participants claim "this time is different." Supposing iBuyers do become a significant force in the SFH market, so what? Large companies already participate directly in housing in a massive way. Who do you think built all of these apartments? Also, don't YIMBY's want to eliminate SFH anyway?

davidw 5y ago
> Also, don't YIMBY's want to eliminate SFH anyway? No, only the zoning designation, meaning that if you want, you can build a SFH. Or a 4-plex. Or maybe a corner store.
- seanmcdirmid 5y ago
  Like they have in Houston. So you get scenes like the ones in this article: https://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Weirdest-images-from-Houston-s-lack-of-zoning-laws-9171688.php https://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Wei...
  - davidw 5y ago
    Yes, and housing is massively more affordable than elsewhere. And there's less homelessness, because people can more easily afford homes. Not to say that it's necessarily a model to follow: there's a lot of sprawl involved. Just saying that "abundant housing has some real benefits".
    - seanmcdirmid 5y ago
      > and housing is massively more affordable than elsewhere. Compared to NYC and SF? Sure. Compared to everywhere else, no: https://kinder.rice.edu/urbanedge/2020/06/23/rents-and-home-prices-go-once-affordable-houston-housing-grows-less-accessible https://kinder.rice.edu/urbanedge/2020/06/23/rents-and-home-... https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/No-city-in-America-has-enough-low-income-housing-16033351.php https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/... But then that's just saying you'll find more affordable housing in cities that people don't want to live in, which would then go along with your point. > Not to say that it's necessarily a model to follow: there's a lot of sprawl involved. Just saying that "abundant housing has some real benefits". I've heard it isn't a nice place, but I've never been before so can't judge.
      - davidw 5y ago
        Everywhere is struggling with housing right now, because nowhere has built enough since the great recession - and some places like California have probably been underbuilding for decades. Median prices are still pretty low there, though: https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Houston_TX/overview https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Houston_TX... It does not strike me as a particularly attractive place to live - but I'm not a big city person, and prefer more mountains/nature. Its population has sure been growing, though, indicating that someone wants to live there.
        seanmcdirmid 5y ago
        > Everywhere is struggling with housing right now, because nowhere has built enough since the great recession That was my original point in another thread (under building during the great recession + an exodus of building talent). > It does not strike me as a particularly attractive place to live - but I'm not a big city person, and prefer more mountains/nature. Its population has sure been growing, though, indicating that someone wants to live there. Houston is growing at half the rate of Seattle, at least in the last 10 years (10% vs. 20% growth). Those cities growing the fastest seem to have the most pressure put on their housing markets, which makes sense.

davidw 5y ago

> Also, don't YIMBY's want to eliminate SFH anyway? No, only the zoning designation, meaning that if you want, you can build a SFH. Or a 4-plex. Or maybe a corner store.

seanmcdirmid 5y ago
Like they have in Houston. So you get scenes like the ones in this article: https://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Weirdest-images-from-Houston-s-lack-of-zoning-laws-9171688.php https://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Wei...
- davidw 5y ago
  Yes, and housing is massively more affordable than elsewhere. And there's less homelessness, because people can more easily afford homes. Not to say that it's necessarily a model to follow: there's a lot of sprawl involved. Just saying that "abundant housing has some real benefits".
  - seanmcdirmid 5y ago
    > and housing is massively more affordable than elsewhere. Compared to NYC and SF? Sure. Compared to everywhere else, no: https://kinder.rice.edu/urbanedge/2020/06/23/rents-and-home-prices-go-once-affordable-houston-housing-grows-less-accessible https://kinder.rice.edu/urbanedge/2020/06/23/rents-and-home-... https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/No-city-in-America-has-enough-low-income-housing-16033351.php https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/... But then that's just saying you'll find more affordable housing in cities that people don't want to live in, which would then go along with your point. > Not to say that it's necessarily a model to follow: there's a lot of sprawl involved. Just saying that "abundant housing has some real benefits". I've heard it isn't a nice place, but I've never been before so can't judge.
    - davidw 5y ago
      Everywhere is struggling with housing right now, because nowhere has built enough since the great recession - and some places like California have probably been underbuilding for decades. Median prices are still pretty low there, though: https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Houston_TX/overview https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Houston_TX... It does not strike me as a particularly attractive place to live - but I'm not a big city person, and prefer more mountains/nature. Its population has sure been growing, though, indicating that someone wants to live there.
      - seanmcdirmid 5y ago
        > Everywhere is struggling with housing right now, because nowhere has built enough since the great recession That was my original point in another thread (under building during the great recession + an exodus of building talent). > It does not strike me as a particularly attractive place to live - but I'm not a big city person, and prefer more mountains/nature. Its population has sure been growing, though, indicating that someone wants to live there. Houston is growing at half the rate of Seattle, at least in the last 10 years (10% vs. 20% growth). Those cities growing the fastest seem to have the most pressure put on their housing markets, which makes sense.