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https://www.forbes.com/sites/graisondangor/2021/06/16/the-housing-shortage-is-worse-than-ever-and-will-take-a-decade-of-record-construction-to-fix-new-reports-s

by faet 5y ago

https://www.forbes.com/sites/graisondangor/2021/06/16/the-housing-shortage-is-worse-than-ever-and-will-take-a-decade-of-record-construction-to-fix-new-reports-say/?sh=33804ba49535 https://www.forbes.com/sites/graisondangor/2021/06/16/the-ho... The U.S. built on average 276,000 fewer homes per year between 2001 and 2020 compared to the period between 1968 and 2000, according to the report which was covered earlier by the Wall Street Journal. Had building continued at the same pace, there would be 5.5 million more units of housing, the report estimated. To make up the shortage, the NAR report says the U.S. would have to build 2.1 million homes each year for a decade—more than it built each year during the housing boom of the mid-2000s.

seanmcdirmid 5y ago
Why are you comparing a 19 year period to a 32 year period? Ah, I see it is a per year measure. Well, it isn’t weird that land runs out for new subdivisions. What is left is to build more dense (replace single family housing with apartments or town homes). Still, why is it zoning per se that is the problem rather than just the market? They have the same pricing problems elsewhere in countries with building booms (eg China).
- sigstoat 5y ago
  > Still, why is it zoning per se that is the problem rather than just the market? dense housing is frequently not permitted by zoning. sometimes housing itself isn't permitted. > What is left is to build more dense (replace single family housing with apartments or town homes). yeah, that's exactly the thing that's banned in very many places where it would be most useful.
  - seanmcdirmid 5y ago
    > dense housing is frequently not permitted by zoning. sometimes housing itself isn't permitted. But where they are permitted, housing prices are still high. Higher even, like NYC and much of New Jersey near NYC. Is there a good example where increased density has led to lower prices, not higher ones?
    - lthornberry 5y ago
      Most of the area in those places still has significant zoning restrictions on density--the cap is higher than other places, but there's still a cap. That's why there are still brownstones in Brooklyn. Second, the economics of building dictate that skyscraper-level density will only happen in places where housing is relatively expensive. But there are plenty of examples of density leading to lower prices, in the suburbs.
      - seanmcdirmid 5y ago
        > But there are plenty of examples of density leading to lower prices, in the suburbs. Do you have specific examples? The only places I can think of are economically depressed (e.g. in the midwest, or in Florida swampland) and aren't particularly dense. Maybe Houston? Houston is famous for having almost no zoning, but even Houston seems to be heating up these days.
HWR_14 5y ago
So you compared a 32-year period with a couple of technical recessions and one relatively brief stagflation period averaged over huge growth with an 18-year period dominated by the Great Recession? Would it be interesting to point out that the US population growth also was much higher in the 1968-2000 period compared to 2001-2020 period on an annual basis?
refurb 5y ago
What the the numbers for population growth versus number of housing units? Per capita?
meragrin_ 5y ago
No connection to "under-building due to restrictive zoning laws".

by faet 5y ago

seanmcdirmid 5y ago

Why are you comparing a 19 year period to a 32 year period? Ah, I see it is a per year measure. Well, it isn’t weird that land runs out for new subdivisions. What is left is to build more dense (replace single family housing with apartments or town homes). Still, why is it zoning per se that is the problem rather than just the market? They have the same pricing problems elsewhere in countries with building booms (eg China).

sigstoat 5y ago
> Still, why is it zoning per se that is the problem rather than just the market? dense housing is frequently not permitted by zoning. sometimes housing itself isn't permitted. > What is left is to build more dense (replace single family housing with apartments or town homes). yeah, that's exactly the thing that's banned in very many places where it would be most useful.
- seanmcdirmid 5y ago
  > dense housing is frequently not permitted by zoning. sometimes housing itself isn't permitted. But where they are permitted, housing prices are still high. Higher even, like NYC and much of New Jersey near NYC. Is there a good example where increased density has led to lower prices, not higher ones?
  - lthornberry 5y ago
    Most of the area in those places still has significant zoning restrictions on density--the cap is higher than other places, but there's still a cap. That's why there are still brownstones in Brooklyn. Second, the economics of building dictate that skyscraper-level density will only happen in places where housing is relatively expensive. But there are plenty of examples of density leading to lower prices, in the suburbs.
    - seanmcdirmid 5y ago
      > But there are plenty of examples of density leading to lower prices, in the suburbs. Do you have specific examples? The only places I can think of are economically depressed (e.g. in the midwest, or in Florida swampland) and aren't particularly dense. Maybe Houston? Houston is famous for having almost no zoning, but even Houston seems to be heating up these days.

HWR_14 5y ago

So you compared a 32-year period with a couple of technical recessions and one relatively brief stagflation period averaged over huge growth with an 18-year period dominated by the Great Recession? Would it be interesting to point out that the US population growth also was much higher in the 1968-2000 period compared to 2001-2020 period on an annual basis?

refurb 5y ago

What the the numbers for population growth versus number of housing units? Per capita?

meragrin_ 5y ago

No connection to "under-building due to restrictive zoning laws".