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So... that's a job that could be done by robots. Some day soon it will be. The robots will be paid the same thing whether they run in Japan, Vietnam, Toledo, o

by Cushman 15y ago

So... that's a job that could be done by robots. Some day soon it will be. The robots will be paid the same thing whether they run in Japan, Vietnam, Toledo, or downtown Manhattan. Call me crazy, but why are we arguing about "manufacturing jobs" instead of building robots?

patio11 15y ago
why are we arguing about "manufacturing jobs" instead of building robots? If I recall my stats correctly, the US is #2 in robots, which isn't exactly bad. (Lagging Japan, as a result of 30 years of policy decisions. Japanese government/industry put their chips down on "robots win the future" many years ago and this was not a disastrously stupid decision.)
- Cushman 15y ago
  Where are we at with robots per human? That aside, it's a fair point— lots of people are working on robots. But we should be building more robots. We shouldn't be talking about "how can we create American jobs," we should be talking about "how can we replace every American job with a robot."
  - asdkl234890 15y ago
    Where are we at with robots per human? What exactly is that a measure of?
    - Cushman 15y ago
      It's a measure of the ability of automation to replace human labor. Let's say that, as a middle-class American, I consume enough to employ ten manual laborers full-time. If we have ten robots for every person, then everyone can live like me and no one has to do the physical labor.
  - joe_the_user 15y ago
    If we are going to talk about "how can we replace every American job with a robot", we'll have to talk about how replace humans can live ennobling lives of leisures rather than either pushing shopping carts or experiencing empty hedonism. It would be a good conversation. I don't hear it starting. In fact, there was discussion of these issues in the 1960's and 1970's. By now, with the various crises on our heals, no one wants to consider the problems in this fashion.
    - felipemnoa 15y ago
      My guess is that people with low skills will still find work but not as much (part-time) and consequently their pay will be lower. However, if robots are doing all the work then production becomes cheaper which means products become cheaper which again means that people can buy more with less money. So in reality people will not become poorer. The economic level will stay the same or probably increase. The purchase power will probably increase. Question is, what do you do with all that extra time? Well, this is only one scenario of the things that can happen.
      - mgkimsal 15y ago
        However, if robots are doing all the work then production becomes cheaper which means products become cheaper which again means that people can buy more with less money. That's a big assumption there. More likely, companies will experience higher profit margins rather than pass along the entirety of the cost savings.
        felipemnoa 15y ago
        True,but it only takes a startup with nothing to lose to enter the market and undercut everybody.
    - Cushman 15y ago
      I think it's way late to start talking about that. In America, we have this puritanical ideal that working leads to happiness— or that working is, itself, happiness. Scientifically speaking, that's bollocks. To take the classic case study, people who win the lottery aren't any happier or unhappier than their workaday peers. They are exactly as happy. Real happiness seems to come from something like the Buddhist ideas of mindfulness and acceptance, and that's true whether you're a poverty-sworn monk, a janitor, a CEO, or a pot-smoking layabout. The idea of "rewarding work" vs. "empty hedonism" is an arbitrary Western construct with little basis in reality.
- deleted 15y ago
  [deleted]
- bane 15y ago
  Interestingly, Japan has spent loads of time on manufacturing robots and personal service robots of dubious utility (see Asimo, Toyotashi and others), while the U.S. has dumped military money at robots and ended up with drones, bomb disposal robots, exoskeletons, etc. etc. While I agree that the level of technology and packaging in Japanese robots in generally higher than U.S. counterparts, to take a rather cheap shot, it was U.S. drones and robots that were first on the scene. Due to the pedigree of mobile robotics, the U.S. needed systems that worked now and not the future...resulting in a variety of heavy duty operable robots capable of working in difficult environments. Here's arguably the most advanced robot in the world handling perfectly normal stairs http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASoCJTYgYB0 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASoCJTYgYB0 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASoCJTYgYB0 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASoCJTYgYB0 Conclusion? Make the robot more like a crappy old American robot. http://www.autoguide.com/auto-news/2011/08/hondas-asimo-to-assist-workers-at-fukushima-not-so-fast.html http://www.autoguide.com/auto-news/2011/08/hondas-asimo-to-a... It's critically important PR for the Japanese robotics industry to respond to Fukushima with something of utility. Otherwise these decades of work and millions of Yen in R&D haven't amounted to much more than an interesting series of public demonstrations. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wwB43D0FG8 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wwB43D0FG8
  - patio11 15y ago
    Human-form robots : robots :: Space Shuttle: ICBMs. It's just a media-friendly way of demonstrating that you have the capability to produce something of use. Most robots look nothing like a human. The overwhelming majority are in industry. Interesting you mentioned exoskeletons. The US is 5 to 10 years away of getting them on a battlefield. They're commercially available in Japan for medical use. (I'm not making a value judgement on that, except to the extent that "You could actually buy this" is superior to not being able to buy it.)
    - bane 15y ago
      Interesting you mentioned exoskeletons. The US is 5 to 10 years away of getting them on a battlefield. Actually that's a very good point, and a fascinating demonstration of the differences in commercial funding for a technology vs military funding and the similar but completely different kind of tech that comes out of that.

by Cushman 15y ago

patio11 15y ago

why are we arguing about "manufacturing jobs" instead of building robots? If I recall my stats correctly, the US is #2 in robots, which isn't exactly bad. (Lagging Japan, as a result of 30 years of policy decisions. Japanese government/industry put their chips down on "robots win the future" many years ago and this was not a disastrously stupid decision.)

Cushman 15y ago
Where are we at with robots per human? That aside, it's a fair point— lots of people are working on robots. But we should be building more robots. We shouldn't be talking about "how can we create American jobs," we should be talking about "how can we replace every American job with a robot."
- asdkl234890 15y ago
  Where are we at with robots per human? What exactly is that a measure of?
  - Cushman 15y ago
    It's a measure of the ability of automation to replace human labor. Let's say that, as a middle-class American, I consume enough to employ ten manual laborers full-time. If we have ten robots for every person, then everyone can live like me and no one has to do the physical labor.
- joe_the_user 15y ago
  If we are going to talk about "how can we replace every American job with a robot", we'll have to talk about how replace humans can live ennobling lives of leisures rather than either pushing shopping carts or experiencing empty hedonism. It would be a good conversation. I don't hear it starting. In fact, there was discussion of these issues in the 1960's and 1970's. By now, with the various crises on our heals, no one wants to consider the problems in this fashion.
  - felipemnoa 15y ago
    My guess is that people with low skills will still find work but not as much (part-time) and consequently their pay will be lower. However, if robots are doing all the work then production becomes cheaper which means products become cheaper which again means that people can buy more with less money. So in reality people will not become poorer. The economic level will stay the same or probably increase. The purchase power will probably increase. Question is, what do you do with all that extra time? Well, this is only one scenario of the things that can happen.
    - mgkimsal 15y ago
      However, if robots are doing all the work then production becomes cheaper which means products become cheaper which again means that people can buy more with less money. That's a big assumption there. More likely, companies will experience higher profit margins rather than pass along the entirety of the cost savings.
      - felipemnoa 15y ago
        True,but it only takes a startup with nothing to lose to enter the market and undercut everybody.
  - Cushman 15y ago
    I think it's way late to start talking about that. In America, we have this puritanical ideal that working leads to happiness— or that working is, itself, happiness. Scientifically speaking, that's bollocks. To take the classic case study, people who win the lottery aren't any happier or unhappier than their workaday peers. They are exactly as happy. Real happiness seems to come from something like the Buddhist ideas of mindfulness and acceptance, and that's true whether you're a poverty-sworn monk, a janitor, a CEO, or a pot-smoking layabout. The idea of "rewarding work" vs. "empty hedonism" is an arbitrary Western construct with little basis in reality.
deleted 15y ago
[deleted]
bane 15y ago
Interestingly, Japan has spent loads of time on manufacturing robots and personal service robots of dubious utility (see Asimo, Toyotashi and others), while the U.S. has dumped military money at robots and ended up with drones, bomb disposal robots, exoskeletons, etc. etc. While I agree that the level of technology and packaging in Japanese robots in generally higher than U.S. counterparts, to take a rather cheap shot, it was U.S. drones and robots that were first on the scene. Due to the pedigree of mobile robotics, the U.S. needed systems that worked now and not the future...resulting in a variety of heavy duty operable robots capable of working in difficult environments. Here's arguably the most advanced robot in the world handling perfectly normal stairs http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASoCJTYgYB0 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASoCJTYgYB0 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASoCJTYgYB0 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASoCJTYgYB0 Conclusion? Make the robot more like a crappy old American robot. http://www.autoguide.com/auto-news/2011/08/hondas-asimo-to-assist-workers-at-fukushima-not-so-fast.html http://www.autoguide.com/auto-news/2011/08/hondas-asimo-to-a... It's critically important PR for the Japanese robotics industry to respond to Fukushima with something of utility. Otherwise these decades of work and millions of Yen in R&D haven't amounted to much more than an interesting series of public demonstrations. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wwB43D0FG8 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wwB43D0FG8
- patio11 15y ago
  Human-form robots : robots :: Space Shuttle: ICBMs. It's just a media-friendly way of demonstrating that you have the capability to produce something of use. Most robots look nothing like a human. The overwhelming majority are in industry. Interesting you mentioned exoskeletons. The US is 5 to 10 years away of getting them on a battlefield. They're commercially available in Japan for medical use. (I'm not making a value judgement on that, except to the extent that "You could actually buy this" is superior to not being able to buy it.)
  - bane 15y ago
    Interesting you mentioned exoskeletons. The US is 5 to 10 years away of getting them on a battlefield. Actually that's a very good point, and a fascinating demonstration of the differences in commercial funding for a technology vs military funding and the similar but completely different kind of tech that comes out of that.