8 ms·

This doesn't mean what people think it means. They adjust the inflation rate every 6 months https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibo

This doesn't mean what people think it means. They adjust the inflation rate every 6 months https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds_iratesandterms.htm https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds... . Right now it yields 7.12% because the last inflation number was really high, but once inflation goes back to normal, the yield will be much lower.

mc32 5y ago
Right. The real question is : when will it abate? Is it transitory as they unflinchingly claimed or are we in the Carter Years?
- pjc50 5y ago
  When the real shock of COVID disruption abates. Which is .. not looking great at the moment.
  - mc32 5y ago
    Even Bill Maher is saying we're pretty much at a plateau and should act like it instead of stretching this further for whatever reasons.
    - ksaun 5y ago
      Why do you say "even" here? Bill Maher has expressed frustration with lockdowns throughout the pandemic. That he holds the view you mention does not seem surprising or remarkable to me. (He also seems like an unusual choice to bring in as an authority on this topic. He is primarily a comedian.)
      - op00to 5y ago
        Even Donald Trump said end the lockdowns!!!
  - angelzen 5y ago
    We first embraced hard lockdowns. No cost was high enough if we could contain covid if only just a little bit. Then we turned to vaccines as a miraculous path back to a life resembling normal. As the vaccine performance falters (*), I'm uncomfortably curious to see which way the world will go. (*) According to FDA/CDC and Israel, which are promoting the 3rd boosting shot in less than a year and anticipating the 4th.
  - bko 5y ago
    Whats going to happen to the $12 trillion of new money created during covid?
    - ForHackernews 5y ago
      It'll just go into house prices and $TSLA, same as all the other funny-money.
- mikewarot 5y ago
  They called it the Great War, then it was renamed to World War I They called it the Great Depression, I suspect it's about to get renamed. This is going to suck.
  - bityard 5y ago
    What are the economic indicators showing we're about to have another depression?
    - mikewarot 5y ago
      No "economic" indicators such as government statistics per se. The supply chain looks ready to collapse, along with public confidence in all of our institutions. History doesn't repeat, but it sure is rhyming, quite loudly right now. There are many many months of rent and utility bills that haven't been paid. Due to the massive shift to remote work, commercial office space is likely to experience a 50% or more occupancy drop (maybe even worse?). Our large urban centers have a funding model that is suddenly unsustainable if this happens. Everything to me, at least, is screaming danger, danger Will Robinson.
      - nytesky 5y ago
        Great Depression as ALL about deflation, we see inflation right now. Which will be painful, but since all countries are seeing inflation its likely just driven by costs in production. If we huge inflation, then all these expensive mortgages people stretched for the last few years will be super cheap, so all of a sudden majority of Americans will be out of debt, for example. All those empty commercial properties instead of foreclosing will simply rent home out for "low rent" purposes like gyms, but that low rent in inflated terms will cover the cost of their lease/mortgage. It could be messy, and will need support from many players, but I don't think we are looking at a Greater Depression.
  - AnimalMuppet 5y ago
    You're using (rising) inflation as an indicator that we're headed for a depression? That's a rather unconventional use of economic indicators...
- newacct583 5y ago
  We would not be "in the Cater [sic] Years" regardless. The lowest inflation reported in the late 70's was about 5%, with a peak at 15%. Last year's post-covid number was 5.4%. Your point seems mostly like demagoguery. I think the more interesting question is... is 5% actually bad? There's a real argument to be had here that rapid inflation reflects genuine improvements like rising wage levels and that it's worth paying for. Remember that the "biggest losers" in inflationary economies are people who hold assets, not investors (whose returns accomadate faster than things like loan terms) or wage workers (who don't have significant assets to depreciate and whose wages track inflation well).
  - rsync 5y ago
    "Remember that the "biggest losers" in inflationary economies are people who hold assets, not investors ..." The biggest losers among sophisticated, moneyed actors are indeed people who hold assets. But the biggest losers overall are those with fixed incomes dealing with rapidly rising prices.
    - newacct583 5y ago
      > But the biggest losers overall are those with fixed incomes dealing with rapidly rising prices. And therein lies one of the big pseudo-centrist points here. A mild reduction[1] in fixed-rate entitlement programs is coming down the pipe at some point regardless. This essentially gets the hard part of that political calculus out of the way "for free" (or at least in a cheaper way, since you can blame covid). [1] Contra the nutjobs who predict the Death of Social Security or whatnot.
      - dragonwriter 5y ago
        > This essentially gets the hard part of that political calculus out of the way "for free" No, if anything it hastens having to deal with the hard part, since SS benefits are wage indexed during employment and CPI-indexed in retirement, not fixed. Inflation drives up the nominal $ cost for current retirees, and, ceteris paribus, hastens trust fund depletion.
    - 5y ago
mhb 5y ago
It meant what I thought it meant. The adjustable interest rate on these has been much, much better than alternatives for a long time. Now it is even better.
AndrewUnmuted 5y ago
> but once inflation goes back to normal you mean, once the "inflation number" goes back to normal. Inflation (supply of money) has been high [0] for literally decades. It won't get lower for a long time. It may never EVER go "back to normal." Normal would put us in a very bad macroeconomic position relative to all other nations. Why would we, the purveyor of the Petrodollar, do that? [0] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS
- iknowicouldturn 5y ago
  Interesting. Are the inflation rate and inflation not causal with one another? I feel a bit ignorant now having always assumed they are essentially the same thing. Amount of new money printed.
- mindslight 5y ago
  I find it useful to refer to "price inflation", "monetary inflation", and "asset inflation" to distinguish between them all. Monetary inflation may or may not create asset inflation and or price inflation depending where it flows.
rashkov 5y ago
Some interesting charts on this page. The 7.12% rate consists of a 0.00% fixed rate and a 3.56% inflation rate. The formula is: Composite rate = [fixed rate + (2 x semiannual inflation rate) + (fixed rate x semiannual inflation rate)] 7.12% = [0.0000 + (2 x 0.0356) + (0.0000 x 0.0356)] This rate is only valid until the inflation rate gets re-adjusted after 6 months. There is an interesting chart showing what the fixed rates and inflation rates have been throughout the history of this bond. For those considering investing in this, there is a $10,000 max per eligible person. Eligibility includes: 1) United States citizen, whether you live in the U.S. or abroad. 2) United States resident. 3) Civilian employee of the United States, no matter where you live. Parents can buy these bonds for their children, so a family of four could invest $40k earning 7.12% for at least 6 months. Eligibility requirements are here: https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds_ibuy.htm https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds...
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- JumpCrisscross 5y ago
  > 7.12% rate consists of a 0.00% fixed rate and a 3.56% inflation rate. For comparison, TIPS trade at a negative real yield [1]. [1] https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/i...
- LatteLazy 5y ago
  Thanks for clarifying the maths. I missed the semi annual nature and couldn't see how 0+3.56 made 7.12
- cornstalks 5y ago
  > invest $40k earning 7.12% for at least 6 months I'm sure you know this so this comment is more for the casual reader: "I bonds earn interest for 30 years unless you cash them first. You can cash them after one year. But if you cash them before five years, you lose the previous three months of interest."[1] Worth keeping in mind these aren't really short-term investment vehicles. But earning 2x inflation rate is pretty decent for a low-risk investment. [1]: https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds.htm https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds...
mudil 5y ago
but once inflation goes back to normal is not a fact. The future is uncertain, ie hyperinflation is possible.
- awakeasleep 5y ago
  Hyperinflation refers to a very specific event where a country has no exports at all, and is also not self-sufficient with food production. We could experience very high inflation, but hyperinflation is becoming a random word that people throw around without understanding the definition.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

mc32 5y ago

Right. The real question is : when will it abate? Is it transitory as they unflinchingly claimed or are we in the Carter Years?

pjc50 5y ago
When the real shock of COVID disruption abates. Which is .. not looking great at the moment.
- mc32 5y ago
  Even Bill Maher is saying we're pretty much at a plateau and should act like it instead of stretching this further for whatever reasons.
  - ksaun 5y ago
    Why do you say "even" here? Bill Maher has expressed frustration with lockdowns throughout the pandemic. That he holds the view you mention does not seem surprising or remarkable to me. (He also seems like an unusual choice to bring in as an authority on this topic. He is primarily a comedian.)
    - op00to 5y ago
      Even Donald Trump said end the lockdowns!!!
- angelzen 5y ago
  We first embraced hard lockdowns. No cost was high enough if we could contain covid if only just a little bit. Then we turned to vaccines as a miraculous path back to a life resembling normal. As the vaccine performance falters (*), I'm uncomfortably curious to see which way the world will go. (*) According to FDA/CDC and Israel, which are promoting the 3rd boosting shot in less than a year and anticipating the 4th.
- bko 5y ago
  Whats going to happen to the $12 trillion of new money created during covid?
  - ForHackernews 5y ago
    It'll just go into house prices and $TSLA, same as all the other funny-money.
mikewarot 5y ago
They called it the Great War, then it was renamed to World War I They called it the Great Depression, I suspect it's about to get renamed. This is going to suck.
- bityard 5y ago
  What are the economic indicators showing we're about to have another depression?
  - mikewarot 5y ago
    No "economic" indicators such as government statistics per se. The supply chain looks ready to collapse, along with public confidence in all of our institutions. History doesn't repeat, but it sure is rhyming, quite loudly right now. There are many many months of rent and utility bills that haven't been paid. Due to the massive shift to remote work, commercial office space is likely to experience a 50% or more occupancy drop (maybe even worse?). Our large urban centers have a funding model that is suddenly unsustainable if this happens. Everything to me, at least, is screaming danger, danger Will Robinson.
    - nytesky 5y ago
      Great Depression as ALL about deflation, we see inflation right now. Which will be painful, but since all countries are seeing inflation its likely just driven by costs in production. If we huge inflation, then all these expensive mortgages people stretched for the last few years will be super cheap, so all of a sudden majority of Americans will be out of debt, for example. All those empty commercial properties instead of foreclosing will simply rent home out for "low rent" purposes like gyms, but that low rent in inflated terms will cover the cost of their lease/mortgage. It could be messy, and will need support from many players, but I don't think we are looking at a Greater Depression.
- AnimalMuppet 5y ago
  You're using (rising) inflation as an indicator that we're headed for a depression? That's a rather unconventional use of economic indicators...
newacct583 5y ago
We would not be "in the Cater [sic] Years" regardless. The lowest inflation reported in the late 70's was about 5%, with a peak at 15%. Last year's post-covid number was 5.4%. Your point seems mostly like demagoguery. I think the more interesting question is... is 5% actually bad? There's a real argument to be had here that rapid inflation reflects genuine improvements like rising wage levels and that it's worth paying for. Remember that the "biggest losers" in inflationary economies are people who hold assets, not investors (whose returns accomadate faster than things like loan terms) or wage workers (who don't have significant assets to depreciate and whose wages track inflation well).
- rsync 5y ago
  "Remember that the "biggest losers" in inflationary economies are people who hold assets, not investors ..." The biggest losers among sophisticated, moneyed actors are indeed people who hold assets. But the biggest losers overall are those with fixed incomes dealing with rapidly rising prices.
  - newacct583 5y ago
    > But the biggest losers overall are those with fixed incomes dealing with rapidly rising prices. And therein lies one of the big pseudo-centrist points here. A mild reduction[1] in fixed-rate entitlement programs is coming down the pipe at some point regardless. This essentially gets the hard part of that political calculus out of the way "for free" (or at least in a cheaper way, since you can blame covid). [1] Contra the nutjobs who predict the Death of Social Security or whatnot.
    - dragonwriter 5y ago
      > This essentially gets the hard part of that political calculus out of the way "for free" No, if anything it hastens having to deal with the hard part, since SS benefits are wage indexed during employment and CPI-indexed in retirement, not fixed. Inflation drives up the nominal $ cost for current retirees, and, ceteris paribus, hastens trust fund depletion.
  - 5y ago

mhb 5y ago

It meant what I thought it meant. The adjustable interest rate on these has been much, much better than alternatives for a long time. Now it is even better.

AndrewUnmuted 5y ago

> but once inflation goes back to normal you mean, once the "inflation number" goes back to normal. Inflation (supply of money) has been high [0] for literally decades. It won't get lower for a long time. It may never EVER go "back to normal." Normal would put us in a very bad macroeconomic position relative to all other nations. Why would we, the purveyor of the Petrodollar, do that? [0] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS

iknowicouldturn 5y ago
Interesting. Are the inflation rate and inflation not causal with one another? I feel a bit ignorant now having always assumed they are essentially the same thing. Amount of new money printed.
mindslight 5y ago
I find it useful to refer to "price inflation", "monetary inflation", and "asset inflation" to distinguish between them all. Monetary inflation may or may not create asset inflation and or price inflation depending where it flows.

rashkov 5y ago

Some interesting charts on this page. The 7.12% rate consists of a 0.00% fixed rate and a 3.56% inflation rate. The formula is: Composite rate = [fixed rate + (2 x semiannual inflation rate) + (fixed rate x semiannual inflation rate)] 7.12% = [0.0000 + (2 x 0.0356) + (0.0000 x 0.0356)] This rate is only valid until the inflation rate gets re-adjusted after 6 months. There is an interesting chart showing what the fixed rates and inflation rates have been throughout the history of this bond. For those considering investing in this, there is a $10,000 max per eligible person. Eligibility includes: 1) United States citizen, whether you live in the U.S. or abroad. 2) United States resident. 3) Civilian employee of the United States, no matter where you live. Parents can buy these bonds for their children, so a family of four could invest $40k earning 7.12% for at least 6 months. Eligibility requirements are here: https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds_ibuy.htm https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds...

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
JumpCrisscross 5y ago
> 7.12% rate consists of a 0.00% fixed rate and a 3.56% inflation rate. For comparison, TIPS trade at a negative real yield [1]. [1] https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/i...
LatteLazy 5y ago
Thanks for clarifying the maths. I missed the semi annual nature and couldn't see how 0+3.56 made 7.12
cornstalks 5y ago
> invest $40k earning 7.12% for at least 6 months I'm sure you know this so this comment is more for the casual reader: "I bonds earn interest for 30 years unless you cash them first. You can cash them after one year. But if you cash them before five years, you lose the previous three months of interest."[1] Worth keeping in mind these aren't really short-term investment vehicles. But earning 2x inflation rate is pretty decent for a low-risk investment. [1]: https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds.htm https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds...

mudil 5y ago

but once inflation goes back to normal is not a fact. The future is uncertain, ie hyperinflation is possible.

awakeasleep 5y ago
Hyperinflation refers to a very specific event where a country has no exports at all, and is also not self-sufficient with food production. We could experience very high inflation, but hyperinflation is becoming a random word that people throw around without understanding the definition.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]