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To me, it's very clear. Drone warfare will be the next big thing after a nuke, and ICBM. Probably it's the only thing which can shift the power poles from the

To me, it's very clear. Drone warfare will be the next big thing after a nuke, and ICBM. Probably it's the only thing which can shift the power poles from the current nuclear states.

narrator 5y ago
Drones warfare will really have a big affect on small conflicts, not great power conflicts. Look at the recent Azerbaijan/Armenia war. Drones give the power of having a full fledged air force to small countries.
- baybal2 5y ago
  The role of drones in a big conflict is a tactical warfare again regaining critical importance. Mid-sized drones are an unkillable airforce, following the front-line, with very small logistic footprint. This way, nuclear countries cannot simply nuke your few airfields, and deprive your force in the field of air cover, and then bomb you with impunity with cheap bombs. It very much means, a big conventional army can now get a decent chance to reach your capital in case of continental conflict even if you nuke all their airfields, and supply caches. In fact, a lighter force can now have much bigger chances to win than a heavier one, burdened by expensive toys, with huge demand on supplies, which will run out of fuel in a day if the supply chain is interrupted. A tank without fuel is just a bunker with 50 cal. on top.
yellow_postit 5y ago
satellite sabotage/hijacking/repair is a field I would foresee parallel accelerating development in. The critical path for comms and vision when paired with drones makes leo a likely playground but with the fun dynamics of many amateur astronomers being able to watch what’s going on.
- PeterisP 5y ago
  In some sense, drones can replace the earlier usage of satellites, especially for countries which do not have a surveilalnce satellite fleet - satellites grant visibility of the battlefield without needing air superiority and risking your pilots; drones do the same. An in a major conflict, it's likely that the big players can take out each others' satellites (and those can't be replaced quickly/easily) but drone swarms can still provide battlefield visibility even in that case.
  - nradov 5y ago
    The small drones cheap enough to be used in swarms are very short range. They're useful for tactical intelligence but hardly a replacement for satellites.

To me, it's very clear. Drone warfare will be the next big thing after a nuke, and ICBM. Probably it's the only thing which can shift the power poles from the current nuclear states.

narrator 5y ago

Drones warfare will really have a big affect on small conflicts, not great power conflicts. Look at the recent Azerbaijan/Armenia war. Drones give the power of having a full fledged air force to small countries.

baybal2 5y ago
The role of drones in a big conflict is a tactical warfare again regaining critical importance. Mid-sized drones are an unkillable airforce, following the front-line, with very small logistic footprint. This way, nuclear countries cannot simply nuke your few airfields, and deprive your force in the field of air cover, and then bomb you with impunity with cheap bombs. It very much means, a big conventional army can now get a decent chance to reach your capital in case of continental conflict even if you nuke all their airfields, and supply caches. In fact, a lighter force can now have much bigger chances to win than a heavier one, burdened by expensive toys, with huge demand on supplies, which will run out of fuel in a day if the supply chain is interrupted. A tank without fuel is just a bunker with 50 cal. on top.

yellow_postit 5y ago

satellite sabotage/hijacking/repair is a field I would foresee parallel accelerating development in. The critical path for comms and vision when paired with drones makes leo a likely playground but with the fun dynamics of many amateur astronomers being able to watch what’s going on.

PeterisP 5y ago
In some sense, drones can replace the earlier usage of satellites, especially for countries which do not have a surveilalnce satellite fleet - satellites grant visibility of the battlefield without needing air superiority and risking your pilots; drones do the same. An in a major conflict, it's likely that the big players can take out each others' satellites (and those can't be replaced quickly/easily) but drone swarms can still provide battlefield visibility even in that case.
- nradov 5y ago
  The small drones cheap enough to be used in swarms are very short range. They're useful for tactical intelligence but hardly a replacement for satellites.