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I don't understand why this would just be a supply-side issue, rather than a huge demand-side issue given asset price inflation consequent from QE, the expansio

I don't understand why this would just be a supply-side issue, rather than a huge demand-side issue given asset price inflation consequent from QE, the expansion of private credit and the financialization of housing over recent times. Or indeed a distributional issue given that we are now living in a new Gilded Age, of poverty amidst plenty. A lot of housing problems result from the uneven and combined development inherent in capitalism. Physical and human capital floods to major sites of economic activity, leading to a positive feedback loop benefitting a small number of major cities. The rest of the country becomes a hinterland, sucked dry of business and anyone who has the option of leaving. In the UK, where I live, this is the major underlying cause of Scottish independence, and now the increasing calls for Welsh independence, and even Northern independence. The economy is asymmetrically built around London. That in turn makes it increasingly difficult for normal people to live in London (e.g. nurses and teachers). Zoning isn't going to fix that.

throw0101a 5y ago
> I don't understand why this would just be a supply-side issue Rates are low everywhere, but housing costs are not exploding everywhere (in the West). Even with-in a single country like Canada, in the Toronto/SW-Ontario area prices are way up, but the Prairies are flat/down in most places. > rather than a huge demand-side issue given asset price inflation consequent from QE, the expansion of private credit and the financialization of housing over recent times. Some of the Commonwealth countries (CA, AU, NZ) have the higher rates compared to other countries (DE, CH, JP, FR), and yet have higher housing price rises: * https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1446515836504743956 https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1446515836504743956 You'd think the cheaper-debt countries would have the bigger rises in prices. In Toronto/GTA, prices have been going rising especially since 2015, when there was no QE going on. But there was a whole bunch more immigration without corresponding construction.
VRay 5y ago
Tokyo is way more centralized than London, yet it’s completely affordable to everyone working there thanks to draconian centralized zoning laws making it easy to build denser housing anywhere as the market demands it
- yobbo 5y ago
  Japan's housing market is on a different trajectory. It peaked in late 1980s, I think. The problem with London is not building codes or zoning. Rather it's policies that make opportunities concentrate there.
  - VRay 5y ago
    Wrong. London (and basically every other large city) has decoupled supply and demand by using zoning restrictions. It's really frustrating that voters can't see that fact, though.
  - seanmcdirmid 5y ago
    It also helps that housing values depreciates in Japan, making it less appealing for speculation.
  - novok 5y ago
    Tokyo as a localized market has the same demand pressures as places like other super cities since it has a constant net immigration into the city and is where all the economic activity is. This is pretty much a guarantee for rising housing prices, but it has not happened. So you look at the differences and see how the zoning laws are different, and how housing units are built at a far higher rate per year than other super cities and it starts becoming pretty obvious what the difference is.

throw0101a 5y ago

> I don't understand why this would just be a supply-side issue Rates are low everywhere, but housing costs are not exploding everywhere (in the West). Even with-in a single country like Canada, in the Toronto/SW-Ontario area prices are way up, but the Prairies are flat/down in most places. > rather than a huge demand-side issue given asset price inflation consequent from QE, the expansion of private credit and the financialization of housing over recent times. Some of the Commonwealth countries (CA, AU, NZ) have the higher rates compared to other countries (DE, CH, JP, FR), and yet have higher housing price rises: * https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1446515836504743956 https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1446515836504743956 You'd think the cheaper-debt countries would have the bigger rises in prices. In Toronto/GTA, prices have been going rising especially since 2015, when there was no QE going on. But there was a whole bunch more immigration without corresponding construction.

VRay 5y ago

Tokyo is way more centralized than London, yet it’s completely affordable to everyone working there thanks to draconian centralized zoning laws making it easy to build denser housing anywhere as the market demands it

yobbo 5y ago
Japan's housing market is on a different trajectory. It peaked in late 1980s, I think. The problem with London is not building codes or zoning. Rather it's policies that make opportunities concentrate there.
- VRay 5y ago
  Wrong. London (and basically every other large city) has decoupled supply and demand by using zoning restrictions. It's really frustrating that voters can't see that fact, though.
- seanmcdirmid 5y ago
  It also helps that housing values depreciates in Japan, making it less appealing for speculation.
- novok 5y ago
  Tokyo as a localized market has the same demand pressures as places like other super cities since it has a constant net immigration into the city and is where all the economic activity is. This is pretty much a guarantee for rising housing prices, but it has not happened. So you look at the differences and see how the zoning laws are different, and how housing units are built at a far higher rate per year than other super cities and it starts becoming pretty obvious what the difference is.