3 ms·

> Were China to invade, they would have done it by now I think, especially in the turmoil of Afghanistan. I believe a big misperception about China attacking T

> Were China to invade, they would have done it by now I think, especially in the turmoil of Afghanistan. I believe a big misperception about China attacking Taiwan is that this will be driven by external considerations more than internal considerations. IMO economic and political turmoil in China is the biggest threat to peace and stability in the region. Right now, China is less likely to risk a major conflict with the US, which could also result in conflict with Japan, Australia, South Korea and India among others, so long as the CCP can maintain the belief among the Chinese people that China is on the rise and it will deliver on its promises for broad prosperity. The problem is that China's economy is a house of cards. Evergrande is just the tip of the iceberg and one would be wise to ask why Xi is testing an economic shakeup involving various industries in pursuit of a "common prosperity" that China was supposedly well on the way to delivering already with its existing model that has produced the miracle growth of the past decades.

raxxorrax 5y ago
Yeah, probably true. But Chinese military command is probably aware that Taiwan is of severe strategic interest of many western nations, so it is probably not a secret that it would trigger interventions by third parties. But yes, internal strive you mean that some hardliners suddenly decide to take action. Currently China is still growing. Some tried to mock Chinese ghost cities, but most of them become quite vibrant after a while. I think Evergreen just faces the problems with liquidity because their holdings are very undervalued and their ratings might be influenced by political pressure. Slowing growth is inevitable anyway and rating agencies haven't adapted yet. I don't really believe in immediate danger for the company, maybe there are other examples.
- LurkingPenguin 5y ago
  > But yes, internal strive you mean that some hardliners suddenly decide to take action. No, I meant that the people in charge (more aptly, the person in charge) would be far more likely to take drastic action if and when it becomes evident to the Chinese people that they've been sold a false bill of goods and they start getting restless in large numbers. From my experience living in the region, the average Chinese person who is not a member of the CCP doesn't really care about Taiwan or avenging the century of humiliation, let alone Chinese world dominance. They just want wealth and the better quality of life that comes with it, with the quality of life enjoyed by high-income countries like the US and those in Western Europe as a reference point. Right now, China looks like it could instead easily get stuck in the middle income trap, which would be a big big problem for the CCP internally. > Currently China is still growing. Almost certainly not nearly as much as it wants people (including its own) to believe. > Some tried to mock Chinese ghost cities, but most of them become quite vibrant after a while. You're kidding, right? Unless you are using a non-dictionary definition of the word "vibrant". > I think Evergreen just faces the problems with liquidity because their holdings are very undervalued Oh dear.

raxxorrax 5y ago

Yeah, probably true. But Chinese military command is probably aware that Taiwan is of severe strategic interest of many western nations, so it is probably not a secret that it would trigger interventions by third parties. But yes, internal strive you mean that some hardliners suddenly decide to take action. Currently China is still growing. Some tried to mock Chinese ghost cities, but most of them become quite vibrant after a while. I think Evergreen just faces the problems with liquidity because their holdings are very undervalued and their ratings might be influenced by political pressure. Slowing growth is inevitable anyway and rating agencies haven't adapted yet. I don't really believe in immediate danger for the company, maybe there are other examples.

LurkingPenguin 5y ago
> But yes, internal strive you mean that some hardliners suddenly decide to take action. No, I meant that the people in charge (more aptly, the person in charge) would be far more likely to take drastic action if and when it becomes evident to the Chinese people that they've been sold a false bill of goods and they start getting restless in large numbers. From my experience living in the region, the average Chinese person who is not a member of the CCP doesn't really care about Taiwan or avenging the century of humiliation, let alone Chinese world dominance. They just want wealth and the better quality of life that comes with it, with the quality of life enjoyed by high-income countries like the US and those in Western Europe as a reference point. Right now, China looks like it could instead easily get stuck in the middle income trap, which would be a big big problem for the CCP internally. > Currently China is still growing. Almost certainly not nearly as much as it wants people (including its own) to believe. > Some tried to mock Chinese ghost cities, but most of them become quite vibrant after a while. You're kidding, right? Unless you are using a non-dictionary definition of the word "vibrant". > I think Evergreen just faces the problems with liquidity because their holdings are very undervalued Oh dear.