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I'm an American living in Taiwan and I am concerned about the risk of China's aggression in the region, even if it stops short of a full invasion of Taiwan. I d

I'm an American living in Taiwan and I am concerned about the risk of China's aggression in the region, even if it stops short of a full invasion of Taiwan. I do happen to think that an attack or invasion is more likely than many "experts" suggest publicly, and could come sooner than they expect. This said, I found the author's language curious: > ...and what appears to be an increasingly imminent Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Does he even know what "imminent" means? Some of his other arguments are incredibly hyperbolic: > If the United States continues its high-risk policy of military brinkmanship with Russia and China, the outcome, however unthinkable, might be an Armageddon that results in the end of our nation. The end of our nation? Are China and Russia going to invade the US? Are they going to annihilate the US? This author believes that the threat of an EMP attack against the US is "very real" and that the US is losing "the nuclear arms race"[2]. While I certainly don't think it's unreasonable to consider dire scenarios, I'd also suggest that the author might be making a huge mistake in assuming that China and Russia are dangerous because they're stronger than the US when it's quite possible that they're dangerous for exactly the opposite reason[3][4]. [1] https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/threat-emp-attack-very-real-105112 https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/threat-emp-attack-ver... [2] https://nationalinterest.org/feature/russia-and-china-are-already-winning-nuclear-arms-race-194527 https://nationalinterest.org/feature/russia-and-china-are-al... [3] https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/24/china-great-power-united-states/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/24/china-great-power-unite... [4] https://www.rferl.org/a/us-intel-russia-declining-disruptive-power-/31194504.html https://www.rferl.org/a/us-intel-russia-declining-disruptive...

tuatoru 5y ago
> > ...and what appears to be an increasingly imminent Chinese invasion of Taiwan. > Does he even know what "imminent" means? That's a perfectly valid use of the word, especially in the context of increasing Chinese naval and aerial activity and increasing Chinese rhetoric about Taiwan, and China's orbital hypersonic missile test(s).[1] Perhaps you are confusing it with "immanent"? 1. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/27/us/politics/china-hypersonic-missile.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/27/us/politics/china-hyperso...
- LurkingPenguin 5y ago
  Imminent means "about to happen". The naval and aerial activity has been occurring for years, and is not occurring in Taiwan's territorial waters or airspace. The aerial activity occurs in Taiwan's ADIZ. Some of Taiwan's ADIZ even includes parts of China. An invasion, as opposed to an attack, would require more than a few boats and airplanes. You would have weeks if not months of activity visible on satellite before such an invasion could be launched. Incidentally, China flies into Japan's ADIZ all the time and nobody is suggesting that a Chinese invasion of Japan is "imminent". [1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/03/05/japan-has-a-new-air-defense-plan-ignore-chinese-planes/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/03/05/japan-has-a...
totalZero 5y ago
I think there's a greater risk of neutralizing the Western incentive to protect Taiwan by damaging the economic infrastructure that makes Taiwan a choke point for the Western supply chain. This is a few years off, but as China advances its high-tech manufacturing there will be less and less of a need for Taiwanese parts in Chinese-assembled electronics, and a large sustained interruption to Taiwanese semiconductor fabrication would cause demand to spike for Chinese substitutes.
- LurkingPenguin 5y ago
  China is way more than a "few years" away from taking the semiconductor throne from Taiwan (read: TSMC) and you already see a reshoring movement in the West which is driven in large part by the recognition that access to chips is a national security issue. For this reason, I don't believe China will have the chance to become the world's supplier of semiconductors. Ever. If Xi hadn't taken the path he has, China might have had the chance to. But the West (and even much of the East) has lost trust in China. For years, China has been trying to hurt Taiwan's economic infrastructure, with limited and very patchy success. One amazing figure: Taiwan, with a population of just ~23 million, has foreign reserves of over $540 billion USD, the fifth highest of any country in the world. Also, while the media paints a picture of a stark divide between China and Taiwan, economically the relationship is much more complicated. Many wealthy Taiwanese own businesses/factories in China.
  - rsj_hn 5y ago
    > Many wealthy Taiwanese own businesses/factories in China. Yes, Foxconn would be the most famous example of a Taiwanese company that has lots of factories in China. Although I heard they are making some steps to diversify outside of China. So your iPhone is actually assembled by a Taiwanese company
raxxorrax 5y ago
It is indeed a bit paranoid in my opinion. Were China to invade, they would have done it by now I think, especially in the turmoil of Afghanistan. Many saw their inaction at that time as a sign they won't invade with direct military force. Doesn't mean they won't try to undermine Taiwan in every other way of course.
- LurkingPenguin 5y ago
  > Were China to invade, they would have done it by now I think, especially in the turmoil of Afghanistan. I believe a big misperception about China attacking Taiwan is that this will be driven by external considerations more than internal considerations. IMO economic and political turmoil in China is the biggest threat to peace and stability in the region. Right now, China is less likely to risk a major conflict with the US, which could also result in conflict with Japan, Australia, South Korea and India among others, so long as the CCP can maintain the belief among the Chinese people that China is on the rise and it will deliver on its promises for broad prosperity. The problem is that China's economy is a house of cards. Evergrande is just the tip of the iceberg and one would be wise to ask why Xi is testing an economic shakeup involving various industries in pursuit of a "common prosperity" that China was supposedly well on the way to delivering already with its existing model that has produced the miracle growth of the past decades.
  - raxxorrax 5y ago
    Yeah, probably true. But Chinese military command is probably aware that Taiwan is of severe strategic interest of many western nations, so it is probably not a secret that it would trigger interventions by third parties. But yes, internal strive you mean that some hardliners suddenly decide to take action. Currently China is still growing. Some tried to mock Chinese ghost cities, but most of them become quite vibrant after a while. I think Evergreen just faces the problems with liquidity because their holdings are very undervalued and their ratings might be influenced by political pressure. Slowing growth is inevitable anyway and rating agencies haven't adapted yet. I don't really believe in immediate danger for the company, maybe there are other examples.

tuatoru 5y ago

> > ...and what appears to be an increasingly imminent Chinese invasion of Taiwan. > Does he even know what "imminent" means? That's a perfectly valid use of the word, especially in the context of increasing Chinese naval and aerial activity and increasing Chinese rhetoric about Taiwan, and China's orbital hypersonic missile test(s).[1] Perhaps you are confusing it with "immanent"? 1. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/27/us/politics/china-hypersonic-missile.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/27/us/politics/china-hyperso...

LurkingPenguin 5y ago
Imminent means "about to happen". The naval and aerial activity has been occurring for years, and is not occurring in Taiwan's territorial waters or airspace. The aerial activity occurs in Taiwan's ADIZ. Some of Taiwan's ADIZ even includes parts of China. An invasion, as opposed to an attack, would require more than a few boats and airplanes. You would have weeks if not months of activity visible on satellite before such an invasion could be launched. Incidentally, China flies into Japan's ADIZ all the time and nobody is suggesting that a Chinese invasion of Japan is "imminent". [1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/03/05/japan-has-a-new-air-defense-plan-ignore-chinese-planes/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/03/05/japan-has-a...

totalZero 5y ago

I think there's a greater risk of neutralizing the Western incentive to protect Taiwan by damaging the economic infrastructure that makes Taiwan a choke point for the Western supply chain. This is a few years off, but as China advances its high-tech manufacturing there will be less and less of a need for Taiwanese parts in Chinese-assembled electronics, and a large sustained interruption to Taiwanese semiconductor fabrication would cause demand to spike for Chinese substitutes.

LurkingPenguin 5y ago
China is way more than a "few years" away from taking the semiconductor throne from Taiwan (read: TSMC) and you already see a reshoring movement in the West which is driven in large part by the recognition that access to chips is a national security issue. For this reason, I don't believe China will have the chance to become the world's supplier of semiconductors. Ever. If Xi hadn't taken the path he has, China might have had the chance to. But the West (and even much of the East) has lost trust in China. For years, China has been trying to hurt Taiwan's economic infrastructure, with limited and very patchy success. One amazing figure: Taiwan, with a population of just ~23 million, has foreign reserves of over $540 billion USD, the fifth highest of any country in the world. Also, while the media paints a picture of a stark divide between China and Taiwan, economically the relationship is much more complicated. Many wealthy Taiwanese own businesses/factories in China.
- rsj_hn 5y ago
  > Many wealthy Taiwanese own businesses/factories in China. Yes, Foxconn would be the most famous example of a Taiwanese company that has lots of factories in China. Although I heard they are making some steps to diversify outside of China. So your iPhone is actually assembled by a Taiwanese company

raxxorrax 5y ago

It is indeed a bit paranoid in my opinion. Were China to invade, they would have done it by now I think, especially in the turmoil of Afghanistan. Many saw their inaction at that time as a sign they won't invade with direct military force. Doesn't mean they won't try to undermine Taiwan in every other way of course.

LurkingPenguin 5y ago
> Were China to invade, they would have done it by now I think, especially in the turmoil of Afghanistan. I believe a big misperception about China attacking Taiwan is that this will be driven by external considerations more than internal considerations. IMO economic and political turmoil in China is the biggest threat to peace and stability in the region. Right now, China is less likely to risk a major conflict with the US, which could also result in conflict with Japan, Australia, South Korea and India among others, so long as the CCP can maintain the belief among the Chinese people that China is on the rise and it will deliver on its promises for broad prosperity. The problem is that China's economy is a house of cards. Evergrande is just the tip of the iceberg and one would be wise to ask why Xi is testing an economic shakeup involving various industries in pursuit of a "common prosperity" that China was supposedly well on the way to delivering already with its existing model that has produced the miracle growth of the past decades.
- raxxorrax 5y ago
  Yeah, probably true. But Chinese military command is probably aware that Taiwan is of severe strategic interest of many western nations, so it is probably not a secret that it would trigger interventions by third parties. But yes, internal strive you mean that some hardliners suddenly decide to take action. Currently China is still growing. Some tried to mock Chinese ghost cities, but most of them become quite vibrant after a while. I think Evergreen just faces the problems with liquidity because their holdings are very undervalued and their ratings might be influenced by political pressure. Slowing growth is inevitable anyway and rating agencies haven't adapted yet. I don't really believe in immediate danger for the company, maybe there are other examples.