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> The challenge for AWS is one lots of incumbents have experienced: they created a market and it's economics and now they're being attacked by the next generati

> The challenge for AWS is one lots of incumbents have experienced: they created a market and it's economics and now they're being attacked by the next generation of market entrants who've structured their businesses to _specifically_ attack those economics. Absolutely. This exactly what Tesla has been doing with car industry incumbents. For example, the higher specs versions of the Model 3 beat +$100k cars in acceleration, raw power, torque, handling, etc. Incumbents have been selling performance as a high-ticket price feature for decades. Traditional brands cannot compete on high-performance features against Tesla without cannibalizing their ICE offering.

bboylen 5y ago
Too bad they shot themselves in the foot with the cybertruck design. Don't get me wrong I think it's funny/cool that a car with that design is out there, but it just won't be able to eat up the high-end performance truck market even if it has insane torque.
- handrous 5y ago
  I'm seeing "truck guys" giving a shit about Ford's upcoming all-electric truck in a way they didn't about the cyber truck, except as a curiosity. I think they screwed up the marketing on that in just about every possible way, including the name and the design.
  - XorNot 5y ago
    I'd argue it's because the electric F150 has an actual release date and specs designed to take the Cybertruck on head first. Has there been any follow ups on the Cybertruck recently? So far it seems like vaporware.
  - sitkack 5y ago
    The eF150 is going to expand the truck market. Cyberwagon is Tesla's Aztek.
  - majormajor 5y ago
    Rivian seems to be getting nice buzz, there, though. I wonder if the Cybertruck in current form makes it to market if Rivian and Ford have a lot of success.
  - sangnoir 5y ago
    What fraction of Ford's trucks are bought by individual "truck guys" vs. fleet managers? My gut says fleet managers may have more buying power - I can't find any stats online that breaks down F-150 buyers specifically, or trucks in general.
    - danudey 5y ago
      Fleet managers are going to love the idea of paying for electricity instead of fuel and of having extra hauling space. You take your work truck home with you? Great, you're paying to "fuel" it up while it's at home.
  - c21h30o2 5y ago
    I'm not a truck guy but I can imagine most of them are pretty lukewarm about a truck from a company that has never made a truck before, with a design looks more unconventional than all the concept vehicles that never make it to production, that nobody can currently buy. I expect it will sell like any other Tesla as soon as people get to try it in real life.
- KingMachiavelli 5y ago
  Really? Assuming the cyber truck actually ships I think it will be crazy popular. It's a very competitive price for pretty great truck at least on paper. Sure there is a market segment that isn't going to buy anything but an F150 but they probably aren't going to get a electric car anyway. Plus the cybertruck will probably attract as many or more hummer/mall-crawler enthusiasts.
  - staticassertion 5y ago
    It's an extremely weird looking truck with terrible marketing and a hilarious meme of its window shattering repeatedly. It'll be an incredible uphill battle to sell that thing imo.
    - jml78 5y ago
      Tesla and every other EV maker is battery constrained. Tesla will sell every Cybertruck they can make as fast as they can make them. Tesla still doesn’t sell that many cars overall per quarter. But they can’t keep up with their demand. Ford will not be able to sell many electric F-150s because they won’t have the batteries to do it
      - danudey 5y ago
        Tesla's most recent profits were a staggeringly high $9.22bn. Ford's most recent profits were a startlingly middle-of-the-road $19.934bn. The Cybertruck is going to sell to nerds who think they're a handyman, but the eF150 is going to sell like crazy, and Ford has the money to buy up capacity that Tesla can't really match up.
majormajor 5y ago
Tesla is selling amazing straight-line performance unlocked by their electric motors, but I wouldn’t rate the Model 3 a better handling car than a 70K Porsche 718. Much of the mechanicals of handling well still have to be pretty complex even with electric power.
- whoisjuan 5y ago
  I'm not an expert so I believe you when you say a Cayman/Boxster can handle better. But my understanding is that Tesla's heavy battery pack combined with their dual motor, produces exceptional low center of gravity / traction combination. I know that most car enthusiasts dismiss Teslas as straight-line acceleration novelty cars, but Tesla is clearly not going after Porsches 718 market. They are going after the German Sedan market where performance has been always their upsell for higher prices (think M-Series or AMG)
  - nixass 5y ago
    > They are going after the German Sedan market where performance has been always their upsell for higher prices (think M-Series or AMG) The German Sedan market has something Tesla does not nor it will in next 10 years or longer - the build quality. They are just laughingly bad comparing to German trio, in every assembly/build aspect. Once they reach somewhat comparable level of quality (and that's a big if), the trio will have well established EV offering
    - EdwardDiego 5y ago
      > The German Sedan market has something Tesla does not nor it will in next 10 years or longer - the build quality. Eh? German cars are renowned in my country for becoming giant money pits once they're 4 - 6 years old.
    - rsj_hn 5y ago
      German luxury sedans are known for comfort and handling, but not build quality. They break down a lot and are moneypits. Part of the problem is the heavy reliance on plastics that break down with wear, therefore modern German sedans are much less reliable than they used to be. Another problem is the extreme complexity which also translates to poor reliability. Another is the high prices of parts. A battery replacement on a BMW costs $300 because the computer system needs to be reprogrammed. A Mercedes fuel pump assembly runs $600 (for a Camry it's $200-300). An Audi headlight assembly is $1100 (for a Camry, it's $250). These are OEM prices. The high maintenance costs are capitalized as depreciation and are reflected in the resale value. In my zip code, the private party sale value (accoring to KBB) of a 2012 Honda Accord SE in Good condition with 120K miles is $7K (median). For a 2012 Audi A4 with the same miles and condition, it's $4.8K - basically one of these tricked out new macbook pros with the M1 max chip. A 2017 Audi A4 with 60K miles sells for 20K - it loses half its value. The 2017 Honda Accord sells for 19K. So it overtakes the A4 in value in year 6. None of the above is a prediction that an out of warranty Tesla wont also be considered a money pit. Maybe it will -- we don't really have the reliability data yet, and there isn't a robust network of independent repair shops yet, it's all very new. But the German sedans do not constitute a high bar to surpass, the Japanese sedans do.

bboylen 5y ago

Too bad they shot themselves in the foot with the cybertruck design. Don't get me wrong I think it's funny/cool that a car with that design is out there, but it just won't be able to eat up the high-end performance truck market even if it has insane torque.

handrous 5y ago
I'm seeing "truck guys" giving a shit about Ford's upcoming all-electric truck in a way they didn't about the cyber truck, except as a curiosity. I think they screwed up the marketing on that in just about every possible way, including the name and the design.
- XorNot 5y ago
  I'd argue it's because the electric F150 has an actual release date and specs designed to take the Cybertruck on head first. Has there been any follow ups on the Cybertruck recently? So far it seems like vaporware.
- sitkack 5y ago
  The eF150 is going to expand the truck market. Cyberwagon is Tesla's Aztek.
- majormajor 5y ago
  Rivian seems to be getting nice buzz, there, though. I wonder if the Cybertruck in current form makes it to market if Rivian and Ford have a lot of success.
- sangnoir 5y ago
  What fraction of Ford's trucks are bought by individual "truck guys" vs. fleet managers? My gut says fleet managers may have more buying power - I can't find any stats online that breaks down F-150 buyers specifically, or trucks in general.
  - danudey 5y ago
    Fleet managers are going to love the idea of paying for electricity instead of fuel and of having extra hauling space. You take your work truck home with you? Great, you're paying to "fuel" it up while it's at home.
- c21h30o2 5y ago
  I'm not a truck guy but I can imagine most of them are pretty lukewarm about a truck from a company that has never made a truck before, with a design looks more unconventional than all the concept vehicles that never make it to production, that nobody can currently buy. I expect it will sell like any other Tesla as soon as people get to try it in real life.
KingMachiavelli 5y ago
Really? Assuming the cyber truck actually ships I think it will be crazy popular. It's a very competitive price for pretty great truck at least on paper. Sure there is a market segment that isn't going to buy anything but an F150 but they probably aren't going to get a electric car anyway. Plus the cybertruck will probably attract as many or more hummer/mall-crawler enthusiasts.
- staticassertion 5y ago
  It's an extremely weird looking truck with terrible marketing and a hilarious meme of its window shattering repeatedly. It'll be an incredible uphill battle to sell that thing imo.
  - jml78 5y ago
    Tesla and every other EV maker is battery constrained. Tesla will sell every Cybertruck they can make as fast as they can make them. Tesla still doesn’t sell that many cars overall per quarter. But they can’t keep up with their demand. Ford will not be able to sell many electric F-150s because they won’t have the batteries to do it
    - danudey 5y ago
      Tesla's most recent profits were a staggeringly high $9.22bn. Ford's most recent profits were a startlingly middle-of-the-road $19.934bn. The Cybertruck is going to sell to nerds who think they're a handyman, but the eF150 is going to sell like crazy, and Ford has the money to buy up capacity that Tesla can't really match up.

majormajor 5y ago

Tesla is selling amazing straight-line performance unlocked by their electric motors, but I wouldn’t rate the Model 3 a better handling car than a 70K Porsche 718. Much of the mechanicals of handling well still have to be pretty complex even with electric power.

whoisjuan 5y ago
I'm not an expert so I believe you when you say a Cayman/Boxster can handle better. But my understanding is that Tesla's heavy battery pack combined with their dual motor, produces exceptional low center of gravity / traction combination. I know that most car enthusiasts dismiss Teslas as straight-line acceleration novelty cars, but Tesla is clearly not going after Porsches 718 market. They are going after the German Sedan market where performance has been always their upsell for higher prices (think M-Series or AMG)
- nixass 5y ago
  > They are going after the German Sedan market where performance has been always their upsell for higher prices (think M-Series or AMG) The German Sedan market has something Tesla does not nor it will in next 10 years or longer - the build quality. They are just laughingly bad comparing to German trio, in every assembly/build aspect. Once they reach somewhat comparable level of quality (and that's a big if), the trio will have well established EV offering
  - EdwardDiego 5y ago
    > The German Sedan market has something Tesla does not nor it will in next 10 years or longer - the build quality. Eh? German cars are renowned in my country for becoming giant money pits once they're 4 - 6 years old.
  - rsj_hn 5y ago
    German luxury sedans are known for comfort and handling, but not build quality. They break down a lot and are moneypits. Part of the problem is the heavy reliance on plastics that break down with wear, therefore modern German sedans are much less reliable than they used to be. Another problem is the extreme complexity which also translates to poor reliability. Another is the high prices of parts. A battery replacement on a BMW costs $300 because the computer system needs to be reprogrammed. A Mercedes fuel pump assembly runs $600 (for a Camry it's $200-300). An Audi headlight assembly is $1100 (for a Camry, it's $250). These are OEM prices. The high maintenance costs are capitalized as depreciation and are reflected in the resale value. In my zip code, the private party sale value (accoring to KBB) of a 2012 Honda Accord SE in Good condition with 120K miles is $7K (median). For a 2012 Audi A4 with the same miles and condition, it's $4.8K - basically one of these tricked out new macbook pros with the M1 max chip. A 2017 Audi A4 with 60K miles sells for 20K - it loses half its value. The 2017 Honda Accord sells for 19K. So it overtakes the A4 in value in year 6. None of the above is a prediction that an out of warranty Tesla wont also be considered a money pit. Maybe it will -- we don't really have the reliability data yet, and there isn't a robust network of independent repair shops yet, it's all very new. But the German sedans do not constitute a high bar to surpass, the Japanese sedans do.