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To those with hopes and dreams in Bitcoin I suggest reading Nassim Taleb’s black paper. It does a great job outlining every major problem and (while in its curr

To those with hopes and dreams in Bitcoin I suggest reading Nassim Taleb’s black paper. It does a great job outlining every major problem and (while in its current version and even a few iterations from now) it won’t succeed as a currency.

weavie 5y ago
Do you mean this one? https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/BTC-QF.pdf https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/BTC-QF.pdf
- jw1224 5y ago
  Wow — some hot takes in there! > Why BTC is worth exactly 0: Gold and other precious metals are largely maintenance free, do not degrade over an historical horizon, and do not require maintenance to refresh their physical properties over time. Cryptocurrencies require a sustained amount of interest in them. And? None of these reasons mean it is worth “exactly 0” (not to mention some of them are just plain wrong). Gold requires sustained interest too! Bitcoin continues to be the only “currency” (regardless of how practical it is in everyday life) that’s free of direct influence from government monetary policy or insider control. That reason alone makes it totally unique and extremely valuable. > The customary standard argument is that "bitcoin has its flaws but we are getting a great technology; we will do wonders with the blockchain". No, there is no evidence that we are getting a great technology — unless "great technology" doesn’t mean "useful". And at the time of writing —in spite of all the fanfare — we have done still close to nothing with the blockchain. It’s a technology in its infancy, and it’s also clear that we are doing useful things with crypto: • DeFi has incredible potential to upset the power imbalance of the banking industry. It is rapidly democratizing financial instruments which were previously only available to the big guys. • NFTs, whilst something of a fad right now, have established means of recognising ownership of digital assets. • A global currency like Bitcoin makes international payments possible in areas where it would not be otherwise.
liuliu 5y ago
The United States is a democracy. Having large swarth of people owning cryptocurrencies making it possible for 1. no outright government bans or criminal investigations, 2. potential government buyout.
- jw1224 5y ago
  Are you suggesting the US government would buy-out Bitcoin? I can’t see that happening, by any stretch of the imagination…
  - adventured 5y ago
    They're going to more heavily regulate it over time. That's how they're going to deal with Bitcoin. The goal will be to keep it at the margin (compared to other assets, other investments), along with gold ownership. They can and will easily accomplish that outcome (which also doesn't prevent Bitcoin from gradually becoming a multi trillion dollar entity given the scale of the global economy). There's likely to be no need for the US Government to worry about, for example, confiscating Bitcoin as FDR's administration did with gold. Today Bitcoin is comparable to Facebook's market cap. Back in FDR's day the scale of US gold holdings in relation to the US economy and its asset base was radically greater than these entities are today (today gold holdings in the US are trivial compared to the US stock market or housing market). For that type of confiscation event to happen Bitcoin would have to become a super giant asset vs global currencies, which will only occur if the US Dollar, Euro and Yen collapse or something close to it. If that happens, all manner of confiscations will be on the table, a lot of very, very bad things will be occurring.
- tcbawo 5y ago
  It is far more likely for the government to step up investigations into tax evasion and money laundering. They will have the opportunity to take civil forfeiture in a whole new direction. Instead of a ban, it will be far more profitable for them to figure out how to get their slice of the pie.
dageshi 5y ago
It's pretty obvious at this point that bitcoin is digital gold. It's a precursor to something that is a real currency and the real currency probably can't exist without digital gold existing first.
theknocker 5y ago
I'll just let your irrational, absolutist comment serve as the cliff's notes; thanks.
jw1224 5y ago
> it won’t succeed as a currency Whilst I can appreciate why people think it might not succeed as a mainstream consumer currency — do you recognise how successful it is becoming as an asset, like gold? Worth a read: https://www.lynalden.com/gold-and-bitcoin/ https://www.lynalden.com/gold-and-bitcoin/
- unicornmama 5y ago
  Gold has been valued for millennia. Regardless of what anyone thinks the price of gold should be, most will agree it’s not zero. Gold has uses for jewelry that cannot be substituted with any another metal. Bitcoin has no use other than to sell or loan to someone else; or to pay taxes levied by criminals.
- throw0101a 5y ago
  > do you recognise how successful it is becoming as an asset, like gold? And why would anyone want to own gold? It's certainly not to protect against inflation, which seems to be what everyone talks about: > While gold objects have existed for thousands of years, gold's role in diversified portfolios is not well understood. We critically examine popular stories such as 'gold is an inflation hedge'. We show that gold may be an effective hedge if the investment horizon is measured in centuries. Over practical investment horizons, gold is an unreliable inflation hedge. […] * https://www.nber.org/papers/w18706 https://www.nber.org/papers/w18706
base698 5y ago
I bought an olive tree and it yielded 2 olives now I'm starving! Meanwhile Bitcoin is up another 50%! Nassim has a bone to pick with Saifedean, whom he wrote the forward of "The Bitcoin Standard" apparently without understanding what Bitcoin was. https://mobile.twitter.com/saifedean/status/1382408549343580161 https://mobile.twitter.com/saifedean/status/1382408549343580...
wyager 5y ago
Taleb is a grifter and one of the IYIs he likes to complain about. Bitcoin people are deeply familiar with taleb, because they were interested in some of the observations he made in Antifragile and Black Swan - they’re already familiar with his objections to Bitcoin as well.

weavie 5y ago

Do you mean this one? https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/BTC-QF.pdf https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/BTC-QF.pdf

jw1224 5y ago
Wow — some hot takes in there! > Why BTC is worth exactly 0: Gold and other precious metals are largely maintenance free, do not degrade over an historical horizon, and do not require maintenance to refresh their physical properties over time. Cryptocurrencies require a sustained amount of interest in them. And? None of these reasons mean it is worth “exactly 0” (not to mention some of them are just plain wrong). Gold requires sustained interest too! Bitcoin continues to be the only “currency” (regardless of how practical it is in everyday life) that’s free of direct influence from government monetary policy or insider control. That reason alone makes it totally unique and extremely valuable. > The customary standard argument is that "bitcoin has its flaws but we are getting a great technology; we will do wonders with the blockchain". No, there is no evidence that we are getting a great technology — unless "great technology" doesn’t mean "useful". And at the time of writing —in spite of all the fanfare — we have done still close to nothing with the blockchain. It’s a technology in its infancy, and it’s also clear that we are doing useful things with crypto: • DeFi has incredible potential to upset the power imbalance of the banking industry. It is rapidly democratizing financial instruments which were previously only available to the big guys. • NFTs, whilst something of a fad right now, have established means of recognising ownership of digital assets. • A global currency like Bitcoin makes international payments possible in areas where it would not be otherwise.

liuliu 5y ago

The United States is a democracy. Having large swarth of people owning cryptocurrencies making it possible for 1. no outright government bans or criminal investigations, 2. potential government buyout.

jw1224 5y ago
Are you suggesting the US government would buy-out Bitcoin? I can’t see that happening, by any stretch of the imagination…
- adventured 5y ago
  They're going to more heavily regulate it over time. That's how they're going to deal with Bitcoin. The goal will be to keep it at the margin (compared to other assets, other investments), along with gold ownership. They can and will easily accomplish that outcome (which also doesn't prevent Bitcoin from gradually becoming a multi trillion dollar entity given the scale of the global economy). There's likely to be no need for the US Government to worry about, for example, confiscating Bitcoin as FDR's administration did with gold. Today Bitcoin is comparable to Facebook's market cap. Back in FDR's day the scale of US gold holdings in relation to the US economy and its asset base was radically greater than these entities are today (today gold holdings in the US are trivial compared to the US stock market or housing market). For that type of confiscation event to happen Bitcoin would have to become a super giant asset vs global currencies, which will only occur if the US Dollar, Euro and Yen collapse or something close to it. If that happens, all manner of confiscations will be on the table, a lot of very, very bad things will be occurring.
tcbawo 5y ago
It is far more likely for the government to step up investigations into tax evasion and money laundering. They will have the opportunity to take civil forfeiture in a whole new direction. Instead of a ban, it will be far more profitable for them to figure out how to get their slice of the pie.

dageshi 5y ago

It's pretty obvious at this point that bitcoin is digital gold. It's a precursor to something that is a real currency and the real currency probably can't exist without digital gold existing first.

theknocker 5y ago

I'll just let your irrational, absolutist comment serve as the cliff's notes; thanks.

jw1224 5y ago

> it won’t succeed as a currency Whilst I can appreciate why people think it might not succeed as a mainstream consumer currency — do you recognise how successful it is becoming as an asset, like gold? Worth a read: https://www.lynalden.com/gold-and-bitcoin/ https://www.lynalden.com/gold-and-bitcoin/

unicornmama 5y ago
Gold has been valued for millennia. Regardless of what anyone thinks the price of gold should be, most will agree it’s not zero. Gold has uses for jewelry that cannot be substituted with any another metal. Bitcoin has no use other than to sell or loan to someone else; or to pay taxes levied by criminals.
throw0101a 5y ago
> do you recognise how successful it is becoming as an asset, like gold? And why would anyone want to own gold? It's certainly not to protect against inflation, which seems to be what everyone talks about: > While gold objects have existed for thousands of years, gold's role in diversified portfolios is not well understood. We critically examine popular stories such as 'gold is an inflation hedge'. We show that gold may be an effective hedge if the investment horizon is measured in centuries. Over practical investment horizons, gold is an unreliable inflation hedge. […] * https://www.nber.org/papers/w18706 https://www.nber.org/papers/w18706

base698 5y ago

I bought an olive tree and it yielded 2 olives now I'm starving! Meanwhile Bitcoin is up another 50%! Nassim has a bone to pick with Saifedean, whom he wrote the forward of "The Bitcoin Standard" apparently without understanding what Bitcoin was. https://mobile.twitter.com/saifedean/status/1382408549343580161 https://mobile.twitter.com/saifedean/status/1382408549343580...

wyager 5y ago

Taleb is a grifter and one of the IYIs he likes to complain about. Bitcoin people are deeply familiar with taleb, because they were interested in some of the observations he made in Antifragile and Black Swan - they’re already familiar with his objections to Bitcoin as well.