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It's an interesting thought, but I think the problem is that flight cancellations are, historically, pretty rare. Pulling from the Bureau of Transportation Stat
by brendoelfrendo 5y ago
It's an interesting thought, but I think the problem is that flight cancellations are, historically, pretty rare. Pulling from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics[1], for the 12 months from July 2020 to July 2021 (the most recent month with posted statistics), Southwest cancelled 1.5% of flights and Delta closer to 0.5%. Now, that does mean that you're 3x more likely to have your flight cancelled on Southwest, but 1.5% is pretty small to begin with.
People are pretty bad at assessing risk to begin with, so how do we judge how much that 1% reduced chance is worth? Is it actually worth $60? It's a value judgement, and I think you'd find that if you gave people the info, they'd still go with Southwest, but not because they're uneducated, but because it's hard to quantify what you're buying with another airline.
[1] https://www.transtats.bts.gov/OT_Delay/OT_DelayCause1.asp?20=E https://www.transtats.bts.gov/OT_Delay/OT_DelayCause1.asp?20... as helpfully posted in another comment.
- joe_the_user 5y agoAn economy ticket generally consists of two or more flights and is generally round trip, so that 1.5% could add up to a significant chance of being late. Add the chance of "mere" lateness to one airport resulting in missing another flight and you a significant chance of being delayed each trip.