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It would be nice if there was some way of educating the consumer. But even if you did let people know that the Delta flight is $60 more and has a 40% less chan

It would be nice if there was some way of educating the consumer. But even if you did let people know that the Delta flight is $60 more and has a 40% less chance of being cancelled, people would still go with southwest.

ivalm 5y ago
Because for most consumers $60 is more valuable that 1% vs 0.6% cancellation rate [0], as it matters only once in 250 flights, which for an individual effectively means never. [0] numbers pulled from thin air but consistent with your 40%.
- rsj_hn 5y ago
  It's not just the rate of exceptional events, but what happens when the exceptional event occurs. 1. Miss your flight? They will try to book you on another. That's why load factor is important -- to find that extra seat. Low cost airlines have higher load factors (more efficient) so they are less able to accomodate you. 2. Bigger problem? There are reciprocity agreements to fly with a different airline. Low cost airlines don't have the same coverage, so again less able to accomodate you. It's just a general principle of efficiency versus robustness. With the low cost airline you are choosing the more efficient/less robust option. So when something goes wrong, it will be more painful. That extra pain is more important than differences in the rate that things go wrong. Other perks, like more value to frequent flyer miles, availability of first class, being able to pick your seat, etc, also play a role.
  - dantheman 5y ago
    Yeah, when something goes wrong it will be more painful, but that's why it's cheaper and the odds of it happening are low. There are many times people travel where leaving a day late isn't a big deal.
brendoelfrendo 5y ago
It's an interesting thought, but I think the problem is that flight cancellations are, historically, pretty rare. Pulling from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics[1], for the 12 months from July 2020 to July 2021 (the most recent month with posted statistics), Southwest cancelled 1.5% of flights and Delta closer to 0.5%. Now, that does mean that you're 3x more likely to have your flight cancelled on Southwest, but 1.5% is pretty small to begin with. People are pretty bad at assessing risk to begin with, so how do we judge how much that 1% reduced chance is worth? Is it actually worth $60? It's a value judgement, and I think you'd find that if you gave people the info, they'd still go with Southwest, but not because they're uneducated, but because it's hard to quantify what you're buying with another airline. [1] https://www.transtats.bts.gov/OT_Delay/OT_DelayCause1.asp?20=E https://www.transtats.bts.gov/OT_Delay/OT_DelayCause1.asp?20... as helpfully posted in another comment.
- joe_the_user 5y ago
  An economy ticket generally consists of two or more flights and is generally round trip, so that 1.5% could add up to a significant chance of being late. Add the chance of "mere" lateness to one airport resulting in missing another flight and you a significant chance of being delayed each trip.
joe_the_user 5y ago
Delta flight is $60 more and has a 40% less chance of being cancelled Does it, though? I've been flight-cancellation hell with all the major carriers and I don't fly that often (though I do fly in the summer). I think reliability would cost more than $60/flight.
- bluGill 5y ago
  Most cancelled flights are about weather, all money can buy is pilots more will to take risks. . As they say, 'there are old pilots and there are bold pilots; but there are no old and bold pilots'. So I'm happy with cheaper pilots and cancelled flights.

ivalm 5y ago

Because for most consumers $60 is more valuable that 1% vs 0.6% cancellation rate [0], as it matters only once in 250 flights, which for an individual effectively means never. [0] numbers pulled from thin air but consistent with your 40%.

rsj_hn 5y ago
It's not just the rate of exceptional events, but what happens when the exceptional event occurs. 1. Miss your flight? They will try to book you on another. That's why load factor is important -- to find that extra seat. Low cost airlines have higher load factors (more efficient) so they are less able to accomodate you. 2. Bigger problem? There are reciprocity agreements to fly with a different airline. Low cost airlines don't have the same coverage, so again less able to accomodate you. It's just a general principle of efficiency versus robustness. With the low cost airline you are choosing the more efficient/less robust option. So when something goes wrong, it will be more painful. That extra pain is more important than differences in the rate that things go wrong. Other perks, like more value to frequent flyer miles, availability of first class, being able to pick your seat, etc, also play a role.
- dantheman 5y ago
  Yeah, when something goes wrong it will be more painful, but that's why it's cheaper and the odds of it happening are low. There are many times people travel where leaving a day late isn't a big deal.

brendoelfrendo 5y ago

It's an interesting thought, but I think the problem is that flight cancellations are, historically, pretty rare. Pulling from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics[1], for the 12 months from July 2020 to July 2021 (the most recent month with posted statistics), Southwest cancelled 1.5% of flights and Delta closer to 0.5%. Now, that does mean that you're 3x more likely to have your flight cancelled on Southwest, but 1.5% is pretty small to begin with. People are pretty bad at assessing risk to begin with, so how do we judge how much that 1% reduced chance is worth? Is it actually worth $60? It's a value judgement, and I think you'd find that if you gave people the info, they'd still go with Southwest, but not because they're uneducated, but because it's hard to quantify what you're buying with another airline. [1] https://www.transtats.bts.gov/OT_Delay/OT_DelayCause1.asp?20=E https://www.transtats.bts.gov/OT_Delay/OT_DelayCause1.asp?20... as helpfully posted in another comment.

joe_the_user 5y ago
An economy ticket generally consists of two or more flights and is generally round trip, so that 1.5% could add up to a significant chance of being late. Add the chance of "mere" lateness to one airport resulting in missing another flight and you a significant chance of being delayed each trip.

joe_the_user 5y ago

Delta flight is $60 more and has a 40% less chance of being cancelled Does it, though? I've been flight-cancellation hell with all the major carriers and I don't fly that often (though I do fly in the summer). I think reliability would cost more than $60/flight.

bluGill 5y ago
Most cancelled flights are about weather, all money can buy is pilots more will to take risks. . As they say, 'there are old pilots and there are bold pilots; but there are no old and bold pilots'. So I'm happy with cheaper pilots and cancelled flights.