2 ms·

Here's a better link: https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12985-021-01633-w https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12985-... >

by ethbr0 5y ago

Here's a better link: https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12985-021-01633-w https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12985-... > We've been playing dice with evolution of the other 4 endemic coronaviruses for centuries with no vaccines and so far nothing catastrophic has happened. SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV? > is there any actual scientific evidence to expect that SARS-CoV-2 will follow a different evolutionary trajectory? SARS-CoV-2 is now in more hosts than any other endemic coronavirus, due to its higher transmission rates. About half (~48% with single dose) of the world is now vaccinated (mostly in wealthy countries). Effectively zero children younger than 12 are vaccinated. Vaccination produces a body that's much more resistant to replication, via viral suppression by the immune system. Consequently, we're increasing the difficulty of SARS-CoV-2 reproducing in adults, while holding the difficulty of doing so in children constant. You'd be foolish not to consider that risky from an evolutionary perspective.

nradov 5y ago
You seem to have misunderstood. SARS-CoV and MERS are not endemic. Those are HCoV-229E, -NL63, -OC43, and -HKU1. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065352718300010 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S006535271...) In particular OC43 is a beta coronavirus genetically close to SARS-CoV-2. It is suspected to have caused the 1889 pandemic. https://sfamjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1751-7915.13889 https://sfamjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/175... Now most of us still get infected with OC43 at some point in our lives. There is no vaccine. The resulting natural immunity protects us as we age. The virus has had plenty of opportunity to evolve more dangerous variants but hasn't done so. I encourage everyone to get vaccinated against COVID-19 if they can, but you'd be foolish to think that significantly reduces the risk of a more dangerous mutation. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y

by ethbr0 5y ago

nradov 5y ago

You seem to have misunderstood. SARS-CoV and MERS are not endemic. Those are HCoV-229E, -NL63, -OC43, and -HKU1. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065352718300010 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S006535271...) In particular OC43 is a beta coronavirus genetically close to SARS-CoV-2. It is suspected to have caused the 1889 pandemic. https://sfamjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1751-7915.13889 https://sfamjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/175... Now most of us still get infected with OC43 at some point in our lives. There is no vaccine. The resulting natural immunity protects us as we age. The virus has had plenty of opportunity to evolve more dangerous variants but hasn't done so. I encourage everyone to get vaccinated against COVID-19 if they can, but you'd be foolish to think that significantly reduces the risk of a more dangerous mutation. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y