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I think that one argument that does hold some weight is that each new infection is an opportunity for a new mutation and a new variant. This variant could be mi

I think that one argument that does hold some weight is that each new infection is an opportunity for a new mutation and a new variant. This variant could be milder or it could be worse (delta). So in that view, vaccinating young children reduces the risk for all of us of a new variant arising that is much more infectious or even escapes the natural or vaccine induced immunity. All that being said, one reason I live HN is that this question can be asked in a respectful manner and hopefully garner reasonable and respectful responses. Any other site this would turn into a flame war in 0.2us

nradov 5y ago
I would encourage people to get vaccinated if they can, however we don't have strong evidence that this will reduce the risk of more dangerous variants. Vaccinated people can still get infected. They may clear the infection a little faster on average but the reduction is limited and temporary. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y Immunocompromised patients are a more likely source of new variants. They can suffer persistent infections giving the virus much more opportunity to evolve. Vaccination is less effective in such patients. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsb2104756 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsb2104756 The Delta variant is already so infectious that it's probably already close to a local evolutionary maximum. Measles has a higher R0 but it's genetically very different. There are 4 other endemic human coronaviruses including HCoV-OC43, another beta coronavirus very similar to SARS-CoV-2. It probably caused a worldwide pandemic that killed a lot of people in 1889, and still frequently kills frail elderly patients today. We don't have a vaccine for it and most of us probably get infected at some point in our lives. Yet even though it's had over a century to evolve it hasn't become dangerous to youths. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34254725/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34254725/
- xcskier56 5y ago
  So here’s my logic but sounds a bit different than yours… While vaccinated people can be infected, the rate of infection is significantly reduced and therefore fewer opportunities for the virus to mutate. But if the primary originator of variants are immunocompromised people then this wouldn’t be such a benefit. Fundamentally, very viral replication has a similar probability of a mutation happening and so therefore (it seems to me) that immunocompromised people are only more likely to generate new variants bc their infections last so much longer. Is this correct?
  - nradov 5y ago
    The reduction in rate of infection for vaccinated people is limited and temporary. Over the long run vaccination will not significantly reduce opportunities for the virus to mutate. The real benefit of vaccination is reducing the risk of severe symptoms. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y Yes infections do tend to persist longer in immunocompromised patients with more total viral replication events over time and thus greater chance of a successful mutation. In addition there may be greater odds of recombination due to simultaneous infection with multiple strains, however that's somewhat speculative and I don't think it has been definitively detected. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8220957/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8220957/

nradov 5y ago

I would encourage people to get vaccinated if they can, however we don't have strong evidence that this will reduce the risk of more dangerous variants. Vaccinated people can still get infected. They may clear the infection a little faster on average but the reduction is limited and temporary. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y Immunocompromised patients are a more likely source of new variants. They can suffer persistent infections giving the virus much more opportunity to evolve. Vaccination is less effective in such patients. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsb2104756 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsb2104756 The Delta variant is already so infectious that it's probably already close to a local evolutionary maximum. Measles has a higher R0 but it's genetically very different. There are 4 other endemic human coronaviruses including HCoV-OC43, another beta coronavirus very similar to SARS-CoV-2. It probably caused a worldwide pandemic that killed a lot of people in 1889, and still frequently kills frail elderly patients today. We don't have a vaccine for it and most of us probably get infected at some point in our lives. Yet even though it's had over a century to evolve it hasn't become dangerous to youths. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34254725/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34254725/

xcskier56 5y ago
So here’s my logic but sounds a bit different than yours… While vaccinated people can be infected, the rate of infection is significantly reduced and therefore fewer opportunities for the virus to mutate. But if the primary originator of variants are immunocompromised people then this wouldn’t be such a benefit. Fundamentally, very viral replication has a similar probability of a mutation happening and so therefore (it seems to me) that immunocompromised people are only more likely to generate new variants bc their infections last so much longer. Is this correct?
- nradov 5y ago
  The reduction in rate of infection for vaccinated people is limited and temporary. Over the long run vaccination will not significantly reduce opportunities for the virus to mutate. The real benefit of vaccination is reducing the risk of severe symptoms. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y Yes infections do tend to persist longer in immunocompromised patients with more total viral replication events over time and thus greater chance of a successful mutation. In addition there may be greater odds of recombination due to simultaneous infection with multiple strains, however that's somewhat speculative and I don't think it has been definitively detected. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8220957/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8220957/