4 ms·

Without any citations and the vague language, I don't know how we're supposed to take this seriously.

H8crilA 5y ago
How about just opening FRED? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGMBASE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGMBASE If you want more detail you should probably first learn the basics of "money".
nradov 5y ago
You can just look at the M1 money supply. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL Of course that doesn't give the whole picture. There are other relevant metrics beyond M1.
- ben_w 5y ago
  I think I’m in the same position as @curtis3389: I can look at the surprising — nay, shocking — graph, but I have no idea if I should care, as the one thing it definitely doesn’t mean is the 400% inflation that graph naively implies. As you say, there are other relevant metrics; I don’t know those metrics, I just know they must exist.
- rrss 5y ago
  How should I interpret this? There’s a huge jump in may 2020, but apparently the metric was redefined in may 2020 to include more stuff? from the Q&A page linked at the bottom: > Recognizing savings deposits as a transaction account as of May 2020 will cause a series break in the M1 monetary aggregate. Beginning with the May 2020 observation, M1 will increase by the size of the industry total of savings deposits, which amounted to approximately $11.2 trillion
  - lifeisstillgood 5y ago
    I think you have hit the nail on the head. Look at the M2 measure - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL - it's a (scary / steady) growth from the 80s to now with a jump in covid. It does not show the vast leap M1 does - and mostly because the M1 metric itself has changed - not the underlying amount of money in the world. I mean that M1 jump in "real" numbers would mean a creation of 16 Trillion dollars - insane
    - okl 5y ago
      I think you should compare the money supply with economic growth. (Money velocity: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V) There's a relation between the two: > Economic growth tends to have a natural deflationary effect, even if the supply of money does not shrink. Some evidence of this phenomenon can be observed in the technology sector, where innovations and technological advancements are growing faster than inflation; currently, the prices of televisions, cellphones, and computers tend to be falling. [https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/070615/what-correlation-between-money-supply-and-gdp.asp https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/070615/what-correla...]
      - throwawaygh 5y ago
        no No NO! Your parent posts are right. The definition of M1 changed. The "omg so much printing in the last year" folks are literally taking two different definitions that are $16 TRILLION dollars apart due to the change in Reg D and conflating them.
- tveita 5y ago
  So is it a rethread of the story at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26974607 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26974607 but omitting absolutely all relevant context? The tl;dr from that thread that there is a jump in M1 from a change in what counts as M1/not M1, making that chart very misleading from a glance. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL is a lot less misleading - but of course that's the point.
- throw0101a 5y ago
  > You can just look at the M1 money supply. You can just look at the weblog post about the M1 money supply change as well: > […] the modification of Regulation D in late April has effectively rendered savings accounts almost indistinguishable from checking accounts from the perspective of depositors and banks. Accordingly, the composition of M2 between M1 and non-M1 components conveys little economic information. * https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2021/01/whats-behind-the-recent-surge-in-the-m1-money-supply/ https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2021/01/whats-behind-the-rec...
GaryTang 5y ago
deductive reasoning? unless you don’t trust the numbers posted by the FED

How about just opening FRED? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGMBASE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGMBASE If you want more detail you should probably first learn the basics of "money".

nradov 5y ago

You can just look at the M1 money supply. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL Of course that doesn't give the whole picture. There are other relevant metrics beyond M1.

ben_w 5y ago
I think I’m in the same position as @curtis3389: I can look at the surprising — nay, shocking — graph, but I have no idea if I should care, as the one thing it definitely doesn’t mean is the 400% inflation that graph naively implies. As you say, there are other relevant metrics; I don’t know those metrics, I just know they must exist.
rrss 5y ago
How should I interpret this? There’s a huge jump in may 2020, but apparently the metric was redefined in may 2020 to include more stuff? from the Q&A page linked at the bottom: > Recognizing savings deposits as a transaction account as of May 2020 will cause a series break in the M1 monetary aggregate. Beginning with the May 2020 observation, M1 will increase by the size of the industry total of savings deposits, which amounted to approximately $11.2 trillion
- lifeisstillgood 5y ago
  I think you have hit the nail on the head. Look at the M2 measure - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL - it's a (scary / steady) growth from the 80s to now with a jump in covid. It does not show the vast leap M1 does - and mostly because the M1 metric itself has changed - not the underlying amount of money in the world. I mean that M1 jump in "real" numbers would mean a creation of 16 Trillion dollars - insane
  - okl 5y ago
    I think you should compare the money supply with economic growth. (Money velocity: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V) There's a relation between the two: > Economic growth tends to have a natural deflationary effect, even if the supply of money does not shrink. Some evidence of this phenomenon can be observed in the technology sector, where innovations and technological advancements are growing faster than inflation; currently, the prices of televisions, cellphones, and computers tend to be falling. [https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/070615/what-correlation-between-money-supply-and-gdp.asp https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/070615/what-correla...]
    - throwawaygh 5y ago
      no No NO! Your parent posts are right. The definition of M1 changed. The "omg so much printing in the last year" folks are literally taking two different definitions that are $16 TRILLION dollars apart due to the change in Reg D and conflating them.
tveita 5y ago
So is it a rethread of the story at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26974607 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26974607 but omitting absolutely all relevant context? The tl;dr from that thread that there is a jump in M1 from a change in what counts as M1/not M1, making that chart very misleading from a glance. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL is a lot less misleading - but of course that's the point.
throw0101a 5y ago
> You can just look at the M1 money supply. You can just look at the weblog post about the M1 money supply change as well: > […] the modification of Regulation D in late April has effectively rendered savings accounts almost indistinguishable from checking accounts from the perspective of depositors and banks. Accordingly, the composition of M2 between M1 and non-M1 components conveys little economic information. * https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2021/01/whats-behind-the-recent-surge-in-the-m1-money-supply/ https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2021/01/whats-behind-the-rec...

GaryTang 5y ago

deductive reasoning? unless you don’t trust the numbers posted by the FED