4 ms·

I dont understand why some country can't just send a tanker, the goodwill would be immense.

by zz865 5y ago

imtringued 5y ago
Why doesn't every country do balanced trade? The goodwill would be immense and we would pull billions of humans out of poverty into the global middle class. The goodwill would be immense. Humans don't actually want to cooperate.
anonporridge 5y ago
Is goodwill from Lebanon worth a tanker full of fuel? Not that I don't have sympathy for the people suffering, but this is the question anyone with control over that level of wealth would ask.
- base698 5y ago
  Found the MBA.
- missedthecue 5y ago
  There's a cold war in the middle east between Saudi Arabia and Iran right now. Surely getting an entire nation state in the region on your side for the cost of a few oil tankers (of which KSA and Iran have no shortage) is worth it?
  - lazide 5y ago
    KSA subsidized Lebanon for a long time already, but they got fed up with them a few years back.
- perl4ever 5y ago
  The premise that nobody cares enough to send fuel, or an amount of aid comparable in value to a tanker of fuel, is false.
HenryKissinger 5y ago
The last 80 years have taught us a few things: - State collapse is more common than we think, but not impossible to recover from (Germany post WW2, Iraq post 2010?) - The international community is willing to cooperate during major natural disasters (2004 earthquake, Japanese earthquake, Haiti earthquake) - The international community is less willing to cooperate during man-made political disasters with humanitarian consequences (Somalia 1980s, Russia 1990s), though there are notable exceptions (Bosnian War, Kosovo War) - No one really cares about genocides happening in other countries - Successful nation building directed by a foreign power is the exception, not the norm. - Some countries will never achieve prosperity
- XorNot 5y ago
  > - Some countries will never achieve prosperity Seems like a weirdly determinate conclusion for span of time less then one human lifetime.
  - Thorentis 5y ago
    Prosperity is unfortunately a zero sum game. Until we develop the means to fully automate the creation of all of humanity's needs and wants, there will be winners and losers at the national level.
    - asdfasgasdgasdg 5y ago
      That is definitely not true. Many of the things we value the most are found in abundance in all countries, if the society is well organized to achieve these ends. Leisure, food, space to live, friends, peace, safety, etc. There are some few goods whose production is truly limited by our ability to extract raw resources, but these are the exception, not the norm.
      - rsj_hn 5y ago
        This is a good point, but I'd point out that well-organized societies are much rarer (and shorter-lived) than any vein of gold, one of the biggest enemies of having a well-organized society being the politics of envy and resentment as displayed in the post you were replying to. When that type of culture is ascendant, then things are not only zero sum, but often negative-sum, since the party takes a cut of transferring wealth from winners to losers, and often just transfers wealth to itself.
XorNot 5y ago
No famine has ever been caused by the world not growing enough food for everyone.
- gruez 5y ago
  ever? The first entry in the wikipedia article for "list of famines" points to "4.2-kiloyear event", which was apparently global. At that scale it doesn't seem hard for the deficit to negate any meager surplus that non-affected societies can produce. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/4.2-kiloyear_event https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/4.2-kiloyear_event
- lwouis 5y ago
  Only recently can people access "the world" goods. In the past there was limited range to provision from outside. Mostly boats and carriages. Famines could then occur because of a bad harvest or a few in a row. Farming has never been a surefire thing!
  - perl4ever 5y ago
    I think that is the point of the comment you're responding to?
  - XorNot 5y ago
    As far back as the Irish potato famine, there was plenty of food - the problem was caused by the political power structures and rent seeking which would not bend an inch to help the peasantry. In the modern era, we have more then enough food to feed everyone: no one goes hungry because there is not enough.
- redis_mlc 5y ago
  I agree overall. Note that China imports 50% of its food today, so is very vulnerable to famine. Also, several of the old historic empires did collapse from famine: - near the end of the Bronze Age, in Europe and North Africa - the Central and South American empires were either conquered by the Spanish, or the soil ran out of nutrients - there are two jet streams that change latitudes periodically, which changes rainfall or drought. That can help or destroy agriculture. The latter was magnified by the low productivity of crop strains, which were 5,000 years behind Europe in terms of plant breeding. For example, corn was originally looked like a grass with bumps, and didn't have giant ears like today. If you grew corn, initially there was enough for your family and some taxation, but the yield dropped to nothing after a few years as the soil depleted, and whole cities had to move.
nimos 5y ago
Iran has been and is continuing to do so.
roenxi 5y ago
1. It may well not generate any goodwill. Most things that happen aren't reported on. And people forget quickly. 2. Would it actually help? The root cause of this problem is not that 1 tanker got delayed.
perl4ever 5y ago
I don't understand why people always make comments when there's a crisis about how nobody's helping. There's always aid! The question is, why do people not read about it, and declare there isn't any? By no means am I saying the aid is enough, or that it doesn't involve conflicts, that it isn't being wasted or misused, or anything like that. But it is an artificial storyline that the whole world is ignoring any given crisis, that is never accurate. - Iran has been sending fuel via Hezbollah. - The US and Turkey have sent aid to Lebanon's military. - The Foreign Affairs Committee of the US Congress was calling for "prompt and significant action" from the Secretary of State, around the beginning of October. - Greece has sent "humanitarian aid". - The IMF has been talking to the government about a bailout package, off and on for some time. I don't vouch for the accuracy or political slant of the following, but it's an example of what people write/say about Lebanon: "The international community has been providing humanitarian relief, but too much of it ends up siphoned off into the corruption networks that rule Lebanon. Some of the aid is smuggled into Syria, circumventing sanctions against the Assad dictatorship, while turning a considerable profit for criminal enterprises, including Hezbollah. More humanitarian relief is needed, but it should be run through reliable international institutions or through closely monitored non-governmental organizations if it is to support the Lebanese people and not the mafia-like syndicates." A basic problem, obviously, is that different countries and organizations want to help some people and entities in Lebanon, and not others. But it's not an island from humanity.
steve19 5y ago
It is a nice thought but that could not happen. When an event like this happens it is because of huge structural failure. Corruption would have played a part. If you brought a tanker or free oil, whose business interest, or tax revenue, would be impacted by an influx of cheap oil? Who is being incentivized not to solve the issue? Where do you dock the ship? Who gets the oil for free but then charges the next user down the supply chain? How can you be sure the majority of the oil does not end up on the black market, exported or not used for grid energy? Twenty years ago the most advanced economy in the world, California, had blackouts due to fraud and corruption. If it can happen in CA it can happen anywhere. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000%E2%80%9301_California_electricity_crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000%E2%80%9301_California_ele...
throwaway984393 5y ago
Because Lebanon is a pawn in the proxy wars between the US, Israel, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. All of them want to help, but only if Lebanon does things "their" way, and not the "other's" way, and none of "them" will allow the "other" to help. And the IMF says their government is not giving enough concessions. It's all pretty fucked up. Foreign intervention is unlikely without government reform. With traditional donors such as Iran, the United States, the United Kingdom and Persian Gulf nations both hesitant to push money into a corrupt system and also dealing with their own economic problems, Lebanon set its hopes on an International Monetary Fund bailout. But after weeks of discussions, there is no agreement in sight to even begin the negotiations. The U.S, the largest donor to the IMF, wants any bailout to come on the condition that there is a diminution of Hezbollah’s power. The U.S is also the largest donor to the Lebanese army, making for a delicate balancing act. “We are supportive of Lebanon as long as they get the reforms right and they are not a proxy state for Iran,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said last week. In an unusual move, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said last week that Hezbollah would be open to receiving help from the U.S. despite calling it “an enemy” of Lebanon. Pompeo’s remarks followed Nasrallah’s comments that Lebanon had an opportunity to buy fuel from “a friend called Iran in exchange for Lebanese pounds.” The secretary of state dismissed the claims as “unacceptable”, adding that the U.S. will do everything necessary to stop Iran from sending crude oil anywhere. There is little optimism for the future of the IMF talks, which have not even agreed on the balance of losses, let alone the negotiations and have now been stalled. “The government refuses to implement any reform, any prerequisite the IMF had for even continuing the talks,” said Jad Chaaban, an economist at the American University of Beirut. While the political elite argues without much consensus, the refusal to reform is crushing the Lebanese people. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/we-re-road-collapse-inside-lebanon-s-crippling-economic-crisis-n1234005 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/we-re-road-collapse-insid... (July 2020)
- montblanc 5y ago
  > “We are supportive of Lebanon as long as they get the reforms right and they are not a proxy state for Iran,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said last week" This seems sensible to me; we will help you if you become a friend instead of an enemy.
hackeraccount 5y ago
That would be like someone giving the United States 5 Trillion dollars to fix its budget problems. Would it help? Sure. How could it not? Would it also cause more problems? Sure. The problem the US faces isn't a lack of money directly - it's that there's either an unwillingness to make trade offs or a perception that trade offs are not necessary. I'm not an expert on Lebanon but from what I've read I think the problems are not dissimilar. A tanker full of fuel would help Lebanon. Who in Lebanon it would help is at least an open question. In anything except the very short term I think the main problem is one of politics. It's going to be hard for people not directly involved in Lebanese politics to fix those problems.

I dont understand why some country can't just send a tanker, the goodwill would be immense.

by zz865 5y ago

I dont understand why some country can't just send a tanker, the goodwill would be immense.

Why doesn't every country do balanced trade? The goodwill would be immense and we would pull billions of humans out of poverty into the global middle class. The goodwill would be immense. Humans don't actually want to cooperate.

anonporridge 5y ago

Is goodwill from Lebanon worth a tanker full of fuel? Not that I don't have sympathy for the people suffering, but this is the question anyone with control over that level of wealth would ask.

base698 5y ago
Found the MBA.
missedthecue 5y ago
There's a cold war in the middle east between Saudi Arabia and Iran right now. Surely getting an entire nation state in the region on your side for the cost of a few oil tankers (of which KSA and Iran have no shortage) is worth it?
- lazide 5y ago
  KSA subsidized Lebanon for a long time already, but they got fed up with them a few years back.
perl4ever 5y ago
The premise that nobody cares enough to send fuel, or an amount of aid comparable in value to a tanker of fuel, is false.

HenryKissinger 5y ago

The last 80 years have taught us a few things: - State collapse is more common than we think, but not impossible to recover from (Germany post WW2, Iraq post 2010?) - The international community is willing to cooperate during major natural disasters (2004 earthquake, Japanese earthquake, Haiti earthquake) - The international community is less willing to cooperate during man-made political disasters with humanitarian consequences (Somalia 1980s, Russia 1990s), though there are notable exceptions (Bosnian War, Kosovo War) - No one really cares about genocides happening in other countries - Successful nation building directed by a foreign power is the exception, not the norm. - Some countries will never achieve prosperity

XorNot 5y ago
> - Some countries will never achieve prosperity Seems like a weirdly determinate conclusion for span of time less then one human lifetime.
- Thorentis 5y ago
  Prosperity is unfortunately a zero sum game. Until we develop the means to fully automate the creation of all of humanity's needs and wants, there will be winners and losers at the national level.
  - asdfasgasdgasdg 5y ago
    That is definitely not true. Many of the things we value the most are found in abundance in all countries, if the society is well organized to achieve these ends. Leisure, food, space to live, friends, peace, safety, etc. There are some few goods whose production is truly limited by our ability to extract raw resources, but these are the exception, not the norm.
    - rsj_hn 5y ago
      This is a good point, but I'd point out that well-organized societies are much rarer (and shorter-lived) than any vein of gold, one of the biggest enemies of having a well-organized society being the politics of envy and resentment as displayed in the post you were replying to. When that type of culture is ascendant, then things are not only zero sum, but often negative-sum, since the party takes a cut of transferring wealth from winners to losers, and often just transfers wealth to itself.

XorNot 5y ago

No famine has ever been caused by the world not growing enough food for everyone.

gruez 5y ago
ever? The first entry in the wikipedia article for "list of famines" points to "4.2-kiloyear event", which was apparently global. At that scale it doesn't seem hard for the deficit to negate any meager surplus that non-affected societies can produce. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/4.2-kiloyear_event https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/4.2-kiloyear_event
lwouis 5y ago
Only recently can people access "the world" goods. In the past there was limited range to provision from outside. Mostly boats and carriages. Famines could then occur because of a bad harvest or a few in a row. Farming has never been a surefire thing!
- perl4ever 5y ago
  I think that is the point of the comment you're responding to?
- XorNot 5y ago
  As far back as the Irish potato famine, there was plenty of food - the problem was caused by the political power structures and rent seeking which would not bend an inch to help the peasantry. In the modern era, we have more then enough food to feed everyone: no one goes hungry because there is not enough.
redis_mlc 5y ago
I agree overall. Note that China imports 50% of its food today, so is very vulnerable to famine. Also, several of the old historic empires did collapse from famine: - near the end of the Bronze Age, in Europe and North Africa - the Central and South American empires were either conquered by the Spanish, or the soil ran out of nutrients - there are two jet streams that change latitudes periodically, which changes rainfall or drought. That can help or destroy agriculture. The latter was magnified by the low productivity of crop strains, which were 5,000 years behind Europe in terms of plant breeding. For example, corn was originally looked like a grass with bumps, and didn't have giant ears like today. If you grew corn, initially there was enough for your family and some taxation, but the yield dropped to nothing after a few years as the soil depleted, and whole cities had to move.

nimos 5y ago

Iran has been and is continuing to do so.

roenxi 5y ago

1. It may well not generate any goodwill. Most things that happen aren't reported on. And people forget quickly. 2. Would it actually help? The root cause of this problem is not that 1 tanker got delayed.

perl4ever 5y ago

I don't understand why people always make comments when there's a crisis about how nobody's helping. There's always aid! The question is, why do people not read about it, and declare there isn't any? By no means am I saying the aid is enough, or that it doesn't involve conflicts, that it isn't being wasted or misused, or anything like that. But it is an artificial storyline that the whole world is ignoring any given crisis, that is never accurate. - Iran has been sending fuel via Hezbollah. - The US and Turkey have sent aid to Lebanon's military. - The Foreign Affairs Committee of the US Congress was calling for "prompt and significant action" from the Secretary of State, around the beginning of October. - Greece has sent "humanitarian aid". - The IMF has been talking to the government about a bailout package, off and on for some time. I don't vouch for the accuracy or political slant of the following, but it's an example of what people write/say about Lebanon: "The international community has been providing humanitarian relief, but too much of it ends up siphoned off into the corruption networks that rule Lebanon. Some of the aid is smuggled into Syria, circumventing sanctions against the Assad dictatorship, while turning a considerable profit for criminal enterprises, including Hezbollah. More humanitarian relief is needed, but it should be run through reliable international institutions or through closely monitored non-governmental organizations if it is to support the Lebanese people and not the mafia-like syndicates." A basic problem, obviously, is that different countries and organizations want to help some people and entities in Lebanon, and not others. But it's not an island from humanity.

steve19 5y ago

It is a nice thought but that could not happen. When an event like this happens it is because of huge structural failure. Corruption would have played a part. If you brought a tanker or free oil, whose business interest, or tax revenue, would be impacted by an influx of cheap oil? Who is being incentivized not to solve the issue? Where do you dock the ship? Who gets the oil for free but then charges the next user down the supply chain? How can you be sure the majority of the oil does not end up on the black market, exported or not used for grid energy? Twenty years ago the most advanced economy in the world, California, had blackouts due to fraud and corruption. If it can happen in CA it can happen anywhere. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000%E2%80%9301_California_electricity_crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000%E2%80%9301_California_ele...

throwaway984393 5y ago

Because Lebanon is a pawn in the proxy wars between the US, Israel, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. All of them want to help, but only if Lebanon does things "their" way, and not the "other's" way, and none of "them" will allow the "other" to help. And the IMF says their government is not giving enough concessions. It's all pretty fucked up. Foreign intervention is unlikely without government reform. With traditional donors such as Iran, the United States, the United Kingdom and Persian Gulf nations both hesitant to push money into a corrupt system and also dealing with their own economic problems, Lebanon set its hopes on an International Monetary Fund bailout. But after weeks of discussions, there is no agreement in sight to even begin the negotiations. The U.S, the largest donor to the IMF, wants any bailout to come on the condition that there is a diminution of Hezbollah’s power. The U.S is also the largest donor to the Lebanese army, making for a delicate balancing act. “We are supportive of Lebanon as long as they get the reforms right and they are not a proxy state for Iran,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said last week. In an unusual move, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said last week that Hezbollah would be open to receiving help from the U.S. despite calling it “an enemy” of Lebanon. Pompeo’s remarks followed Nasrallah’s comments that Lebanon had an opportunity to buy fuel from “a friend called Iran in exchange for Lebanese pounds.” The secretary of state dismissed the claims as “unacceptable”, adding that the U.S. will do everything necessary to stop Iran from sending crude oil anywhere. There is little optimism for the future of the IMF talks, which have not even agreed on the balance of losses, let alone the negotiations and have now been stalled. “The government refuses to implement any reform, any prerequisite the IMF had for even continuing the talks,” said Jad Chaaban, an economist at the American University of Beirut. While the political elite argues without much consensus, the refusal to reform is crushing the Lebanese people. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/we-re-road-collapse-inside-lebanon-s-crippling-economic-crisis-n1234005 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/we-re-road-collapse-insid... (July 2020)

montblanc 5y ago
> “We are supportive of Lebanon as long as they get the reforms right and they are not a proxy state for Iran,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said last week" This seems sensible to me; we will help you if you become a friend instead of an enemy.

hackeraccount 5y ago

That would be like someone giving the United States 5 Trillion dollars to fix its budget problems. Would it help? Sure. How could it not? Would it also cause more problems? Sure. The problem the US faces isn't a lack of money directly - it's that there's either an unwillingness to make trade offs or a perception that trade offs are not necessary. I'm not an expert on Lebanon but from what I've read I think the problems are not dissimilar. A tanker full of fuel would help Lebanon. Who in Lebanon it would help is at least an open question. In anything except the very short term I think the main problem is one of politics. It's going to be hard for people not directly involved in Lebanese politics to fix those problems.