6 ms·

It's such a shame this company is not traded publicly. I would be willing to risk a couple of thousand of euros and bet on them being successful in the long run

It's such a shame this company is not traded publicly. I would be willing to risk a couple of thousand of euros and bet on them being successful in the long run. A company like this has nearly infinite potential for growth.

killingtime74 5y ago
Your sentiment is probably why they don’t need to list. Plenty of more easily managed private investors available
- jmole 5y ago
  Given Elon’s history with the SEC, I wouldn’t expect that going public is high on his list of priorities.
rvz 5y ago
> I would be willing to risk a couple of thousand of euros and bet on them being successful in the long run. A company like this has nearly infinite potential for growth. Seems you are disregarding competition, regulations and lots of other unknown unknowns here. As for a hypothetical listing, the investors themselves are there to make back their investment. To do this, they sell 'some' of their shares for a profit. If they were to list, I won't be surprised to see the stock being heavily manipulated by the institutional investors just to catch the retail traders out.
kiba 5y ago
Being publicly traded means they're at the whim of short term investors.
- bpodgursky 5y ago
  Kinda... but Elon has a controlling class of shares that would maintain total control even after an IPO. Still a hassle and subject to shareholder lawsuits though.
  - aquadrop 5y ago
    It also creates incentive for short traders to create negative publicity.
- missedthecue 5y ago
  Hacker News really really really seems to think the stock market is solely focused on short term results, meanwhile, Tesla is valued at $770 billion dollars because they maybe might create a valuable energy business sometime in the future. Other examples are Uber, DoorDash, Lucid Motors, etc... money losing companies with nosebleed valuations because investors believe in the long term.
  - naveen99 5y ago
    you are severely underpaid for someone with > 2000 karma on hn. Someone here should offer you a better paying job.
speedybird 5y ago
Don't fix what ain't broke. The strategy SpaceX is presently using seems to be working well. Changing strategies now seems like a bad idea.
grecy 5y ago
Elon has said numerous times Starlink will be split off into a private company, just as soon as they get a handle on what it's revenues are going to look like long term.
- marcusverus 5y ago
  I saw that, and it struck me as odd. I was under the impression that Starlink was intended to be the cash-cow that funds the Mars colonization project. I suppose it'd make sense to IPO if he prefers cash "now" to future income, but colonization will be a major resource sink for decades. How will SpaceX fund the colonization project if they spin off Starlink?
  - freemint 5y ago
    Starlink will not be a cash cow but a cash sink that burns money to keep SpaceX busy. By having other people foot the bill SpaceX is getting most of the money from the endeavour via launch costs without losing any control of SpaceX.
GDC7 5y ago
At a 100B valuation you'd be kinda late to the party. Non-SaaS, non-tech platforms and non-biotech companies have a really hard marketcap ceiling. SpaceX builds stuff in the real world, macrostuff with millions of moving parts, that's like black death for economic margins, they also aim to go into an environment such as space which is very hard and has slapped us time and time again. There is no convetional ROI for us up there, there maybe is in the form of artificial economics such as the morale boost that the country gets when a rocket goes up. But if that's the case the US could just push for having the Olympics every 2 years given that it sweeps the gold medals everytime. A 200k usd on a public SpaceX is a bet on Musk being able to convince people other than yourself that SpaceX is in fact a tech-platform a SaaS or a biotech.
- actinium226 5y ago
  I mean, technically they are every two years. Summer and winter.
- nabaraz 5y ago
  No, you aren't. Revenue is projected to be 3 billion this year, projected to be 10 billion by 2025. You also get Starlink with it, which is valued at 10 billion by itself. At 10x revenue, it is valued similar to Facebook, Microsoft and Google.
  - GDC7 5y ago
    Everybody is focused on revenue. Last time I checked the important metric in business is revenue - cost of goods sold If they are approximately the same you are just running a big operation, not a profitable business. And I am not saying there is anything wrong with that, being at the helm of a big operation feels great and gives the master of the ship a lot of meaning, but it's not a profitable enterprise. Even SaaS, bio-tech and platforms feel the pain and the anxiety every minute they spend without being profitable. Despite what the CEOs say, it's like being underwater, you can be optimistic about your ability to swim towards the surface, but still you got to get there.
    - 5y ago
tuatoru 5y ago
Elon has said repeatedly that SpaceX is his way of establishing a colony on Mars. Going public has an extreme risk of deviating from that goal in favor of more profitable activities. He won't do it.
hyperpallium2 5y ago
But, really, how much is a planet worth? The moon hasn't been profitable.
- dawnerd 5y ago
  Yet. Whoever sets up the first moon resort is going to make a fortune.
  - anaganisk 5y ago
    They said the same about Concorde, 30 years later, forget supersonic travel, aviation is not available for major amount of population and airline run on thin margins.

killingtime74 5y ago

Your sentiment is probably why they don’t need to list. Plenty of more easily managed private investors available

jmole 5y ago
Given Elon’s history with the SEC, I wouldn’t expect that going public is high on his list of priorities.

rvz 5y ago

> I would be willing to risk a couple of thousand of euros and bet on them being successful in the long run. A company like this has nearly infinite potential for growth. Seems you are disregarding competition, regulations and lots of other unknown unknowns here. As for a hypothetical listing, the investors themselves are there to make back their investment. To do this, they sell 'some' of their shares for a profit. If they were to list, I won't be surprised to see the stock being heavily manipulated by the institutional investors just to catch the retail traders out.

kiba 5y ago

Being publicly traded means they're at the whim of short term investors.

bpodgursky 5y ago
Kinda... but Elon has a controlling class of shares that would maintain total control even after an IPO. Still a hassle and subject to shareholder lawsuits though.
- aquadrop 5y ago
  It also creates incentive for short traders to create negative publicity.
missedthecue 5y ago
Hacker News really really really seems to think the stock market is solely focused on short term results, meanwhile, Tesla is valued at $770 billion dollars because they maybe might create a valuable energy business sometime in the future. Other examples are Uber, DoorDash, Lucid Motors, etc... money losing companies with nosebleed valuations because investors believe in the long term.
- naveen99 5y ago
  you are severely underpaid for someone with > 2000 karma on hn. Someone here should offer you a better paying job.

speedybird 5y ago

Don't fix what ain't broke. The strategy SpaceX is presently using seems to be working well. Changing strategies now seems like a bad idea.

grecy 5y ago

Elon has said numerous times Starlink will be split off into a private company, just as soon as they get a handle on what it's revenues are going to look like long term.

marcusverus 5y ago
I saw that, and it struck me as odd. I was under the impression that Starlink was intended to be the cash-cow that funds the Mars colonization project. I suppose it'd make sense to IPO if he prefers cash "now" to future income, but colonization will be a major resource sink for decades. How will SpaceX fund the colonization project if they spin off Starlink?
- freemint 5y ago
  Starlink will not be a cash cow but a cash sink that burns money to keep SpaceX busy. By having other people foot the bill SpaceX is getting most of the money from the endeavour via launch costs without losing any control of SpaceX.

GDC7 5y ago

At a 100B valuation you'd be kinda late to the party. Non-SaaS, non-tech platforms and non-biotech companies have a really hard marketcap ceiling. SpaceX builds stuff in the real world, macrostuff with millions of moving parts, that's like black death for economic margins, they also aim to go into an environment such as space which is very hard and has slapped us time and time again. There is no convetional ROI for us up there, there maybe is in the form of artificial economics such as the morale boost that the country gets when a rocket goes up. But if that's the case the US could just push for having the Olympics every 2 years given that it sweeps the gold medals everytime. A 200k usd on a public SpaceX is a bet on Musk being able to convince people other than yourself that SpaceX is in fact a tech-platform a SaaS or a biotech.

actinium226 5y ago
I mean, technically they are every two years. Summer and winter.
nabaraz 5y ago
No, you aren't. Revenue is projected to be 3 billion this year, projected to be 10 billion by 2025. You also get Starlink with it, which is valued at 10 billion by itself. At 10x revenue, it is valued similar to Facebook, Microsoft and Google.
- GDC7 5y ago
  Everybody is focused on revenue. Last time I checked the important metric in business is revenue - cost of goods sold If they are approximately the same you are just running a big operation, not a profitable business. And I am not saying there is anything wrong with that, being at the helm of a big operation feels great and gives the master of the ship a lot of meaning, but it's not a profitable enterprise. Even SaaS, bio-tech and platforms feel the pain and the anxiety every minute they spend without being profitable. Despite what the CEOs say, it's like being underwater, you can be optimistic about your ability to swim towards the surface, but still you got to get there.
  - 5y ago

tuatoru 5y ago

Elon has said repeatedly that SpaceX is his way of establishing a colony on Mars. Going public has an extreme risk of deviating from that goal in favor of more profitable activities. He won't do it.

hyperpallium2 5y ago

But, really, how much is a planet worth? The moon hasn't been profitable.

dawnerd 5y ago
Yet. Whoever sets up the first moon resort is going to make a fortune.
- anaganisk 5y ago
  They said the same about Concorde, 30 years later, forget supersonic travel, aviation is not available for major amount of population and airline run on thin margins.