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I remember the video with the swarm of tiny drones dropped from the airplane. It's very unrealistic in my opinion. 3 types of problems: 1) quadcopters battery

I remember the video with the swarm of tiny drones dropped from the airplane. It's very unrealistic in my opinion. 3 types of problems: 1) quadcopters battery is not great (yet) 2) AI is very specialized 3) You underestimate how fast and creative a human being is when survival is at stake. 1) quadcopters battery is not great (yet) Quadcopters must balance weight, energy and payload. Essentially drones don't fly very long and any payload you add will increase their weight and decrease their speed or flying time. In the video the tiny drones are released from an airplane. Already not sure if that would work, what about wind and altitude? The drones might spend a significant part of their battery just to reach the ground. They might be so light that a gentle breeze would swipe them hundreds of meters away. Even if battery will be better there will always be a constraint on what it's possible to do and how much it cost to build it. In the video the announcer says 25 million USD for enough drones to wipe a city. Let's say there are 5 million in the city and half is 2.5 million people. Your budget than is 10USD per drone. Clearly that budget is just too small. 2) AI is very specialized Just because an AI can beat the world champion at chess doesn't mean it can do anything else at all. Take the same AI and change the chess board size or another fixed parameter of chess. The AI will likely not work at all without being retrained while a human being will still manage to figure it out on the spot. 3) Underestimating humans Alright somehow the tiny drones with explosives reach the room. It's not like in nature we don't have insects and birds flying at us. People have reflexes to fly or fight. Most people would duck or protect their face with hands. If you think the drone will be too fast remember it's a 10USD drone dropped from an airplane. Frankly it's a miracle even if manages to land on the ground.

WA 5y ago
Dude, this is what could happen easily within 10 years. What is your point? That the video doesn't show the reality of 2021? How about you sign up for the "escape the AI slaughterbots challenge" in 2030. Win $10,000 if you survive the 1,000 Slaughterbots trying to kill you.
- marvin 5y ago
  It’s naive to assume military research labs don’t have this in an advanced state of development right now, or even combat-ready weapons that just haven’t been used yet. I mean, it’s obviously possible. That means militaries have at the very least developed it to a proof of concept by now. This kind of tech often exists for many years before becoming publically known.
  - giorgioz 5y ago
    Yes probably the US and Russia and China militaries have some advanced quadcopters. Do you think even to build one of them costed less 10 USD? You have to count in all the research and development put in.
- imtringued 5y ago
  Depending on the capabilities of the drones that could be absurdly trivial. GPS jamming scales to an infinite number of drones. For medium capability drones your budget is already in the millions so it is only fair to use a medium capability air defense system: https://youtu.be/1DXpPmpmcak https://youtu.be/1DXpPmpmcak Edit: Before you say that I don't get to defend myself according to the threat level then a single person beating me to death would be enough to kill me. Not very interesting.
- giorgioz 5y ago
  >could happen easily within 10 years. It could but it's quite not sure it will. In 2001 we were supposed to be doing a space odyssey on Mars and beyond. And 5 years ago we were supposed already to have full autonomous vehicles. Just because something looks close in sci-fi made-up movies doesn't mean it will turn reality. It's about the tech. >How about you sign up for the "escape the AI slaughterbots challenge" You are making a very different scenario. You are suggesting in 2030 will be possible to kill one person in a setup environment with very high budget for 1000 drones. The scenario of the movie is to kill 2.5 million people with 2.5 million tiny drones with 25 million USD budget over a very large and not controlled environment like a city.
lolc 5y ago
I have no problem seeing this as realistic. > 1) quadcopters battery is not great Dropping does not require energy. A drone-mothership will obviously take wind in account when dropping the dronelets. The video was not realistic in that regard because the drones would probably be folded for initial descent. I find USD 10 is not unrealistic. Already now a device with battery, chip, and motor can be manufactured for under that. It will get cheaper. 2) AI is very specialized We've just seen how a drone navigates autonomously at high speed without crashing. They don't need much more to be killers. 3) Underestimating humans You have to be prepared to react well to a drone attack like that. These things will not wait around for you to figure it out.
- imtringued 5y ago
  >Dropping does not require energy. A drone-mothership will obviously take wind in account when dropping the dronelets. The video was not realistic in that regard because the drones would probably be folded for initial descent. That already exists. It's called GBU-39/B Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) and it has been obsoleted already by the GBU-53/B StormBreaker. Yet nobody is freaking out. https://youtu.be/CxePhkdIo0o https://youtu.be/CxePhkdIo0o https://youtu.be/hyaIrhGrCzo https://youtu.be/hyaIrhGrCzo Ohh and even a nice fictional animation: https://youtu.be/n8u0l_c2_NA https://youtu.be/n8u0l_c2_NA
  - giorgioz 5y ago
    And yet last week a simple light show with quad-copters didn't manage to go as planned: https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/126582371/its-raining-drones--dozens-fall-from-the-sky-in-light-show-fail-in-china https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/126582371/its... Now I don't think those drones costed 10USD each, they probably costed more and even having them doing a light show is very hard.
    - lolc 5y ago
      The trick about drones is that you don't care about the ones that don't make it.

WA 5y ago

Dude, this is what could happen easily within 10 years. What is your point? That the video doesn't show the reality of 2021? How about you sign up for the "escape the AI slaughterbots challenge" in 2030. Win $10,000 if you survive the 1,000 Slaughterbots trying to kill you.

marvin 5y ago
It’s naive to assume military research labs don’t have this in an advanced state of development right now, or even combat-ready weapons that just haven’t been used yet. I mean, it’s obviously possible. That means militaries have at the very least developed it to a proof of concept by now. This kind of tech often exists for many years before becoming publically known.
- giorgioz 5y ago
  Yes probably the US and Russia and China militaries have some advanced quadcopters. Do you think even to build one of them costed less 10 USD? You have to count in all the research and development put in.
imtringued 5y ago
Depending on the capabilities of the drones that could be absurdly trivial. GPS jamming scales to an infinite number of drones. For medium capability drones your budget is already in the millions so it is only fair to use a medium capability air defense system: https://youtu.be/1DXpPmpmcak https://youtu.be/1DXpPmpmcak Edit: Before you say that I don't get to defend myself according to the threat level then a single person beating me to death would be enough to kill me. Not very interesting.
giorgioz 5y ago
>could happen easily within 10 years. It could but it's quite not sure it will. In 2001 we were supposed to be doing a space odyssey on Mars and beyond. And 5 years ago we were supposed already to have full autonomous vehicles. Just because something looks close in sci-fi made-up movies doesn't mean it will turn reality. It's about the tech. >How about you sign up for the "escape the AI slaughterbots challenge" You are making a very different scenario. You are suggesting in 2030 will be possible to kill one person in a setup environment with very high budget for 1000 drones. The scenario of the movie is to kill 2.5 million people with 2.5 million tiny drones with 25 million USD budget over a very large and not controlled environment like a city.

lolc 5y ago

I have no problem seeing this as realistic. > 1) quadcopters battery is not great Dropping does not require energy. A drone-mothership will obviously take wind in account when dropping the dronelets. The video was not realistic in that regard because the drones would probably be folded for initial descent. I find USD 10 is not unrealistic. Already now a device with battery, chip, and motor can be manufactured for under that. It will get cheaper. 2) AI is very specialized We've just seen how a drone navigates autonomously at high speed without crashing. They don't need much more to be killers. 3) Underestimating humans You have to be prepared to react well to a drone attack like that. These things will not wait around for you to figure it out.

imtringued 5y ago
>Dropping does not require energy. A drone-mothership will obviously take wind in account when dropping the dronelets. The video was not realistic in that regard because the drones would probably be folded for initial descent. That already exists. It's called GBU-39/B Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) and it has been obsoleted already by the GBU-53/B StormBreaker. Yet nobody is freaking out. https://youtu.be/CxePhkdIo0o https://youtu.be/CxePhkdIo0o https://youtu.be/hyaIrhGrCzo https://youtu.be/hyaIrhGrCzo Ohh and even a nice fictional animation: https://youtu.be/n8u0l_c2_NA https://youtu.be/n8u0l_c2_NA
- giorgioz 5y ago
  And yet last week a simple light show with quad-copters didn't manage to go as planned: https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/126582371/its-raining-drones--dozens-fall-from-the-sky-in-light-show-fail-in-china https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/126582371/its... Now I don't think those drones costed 10USD each, they probably costed more and even having them doing a light show is very hard.
  - lolc 5y ago
    The trick about drones is that you don't care about the ones that don't make it.