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> This article at least in text said you’re more at risk of getting it from Covid than the vaccine But the risk of getting COVID in any time period is less tha

> This article at least in text said you’re more at risk of getting it from Covid than the vaccine But the risk of getting COVID in any time period is less than 1 (based on % of population that has actually had it, possibly less than 0.1 or 10% per year), so it's worth waiting for the safest vaccine for certain groups.

TechBro8615 5y ago
It obviously depends on your lifestyle, which is also why it should never be mandated. I call this the risk coefficient – it's different for everyone. Personally, I've effectively been self-isolating since January. Why should I get a shot now? Especially if it's going to wear off in 5 months?
- azinman2 5y ago
  It don't wear off to 0, you're risk of hospitalization or death is far far far greater if you're unvaccinated (even with declining efficacy of catching it), the safety profiles are known to be great especially considering the hundreds of millions vaccinated, and unless you're very extreme you'll want to come out of the woods at some point.
azinman2 5y ago
44.1M verified cases in the out of 329.5M ~= 13%, and that's with verified cases, so it's likely much higher. My guess is younger people are even more likely to get it given their lifestyle is highly social at that age, and risk tolerance is similarly high. Given it's not slowing down, the likelihood of getting covid is actually quite high over time.
- krona 5y ago
  As with transmissibility, the virulence is not constant over time.
  - gfodor 5y ago
    Not to mention as time goes by, many other things are de-risked such as literally our understanding of vaccine side effects and proper mitigations, and new therapies.
- marvin 5y ago
  These are US numbers, though. Norway, e.g., has tested like crazy and diagnosed 4% of its population with covid throughout the pandemic. Given that the US numbers for covid cases are at least three times higher, the risk assessment will necessarily be different. The Scandinavian solution will likely be to just delay vaccination for a week while a dose of the Pfeizer vaccine is tracked down. The change of contracting covid in that timeframe is very small. These ethical considerations are necessarily local.
  - azinman2 5y ago
    That 4% will only go up over time. Per the article they’re only stopping a select demographic for Pfizer.
    - marvin 5y ago
      My point is it won't go up much during the small delay when the small percentage of as-yet unvaccinated young men simply take the other vaccine instead.
nojokes 5y ago
In Scotland about 8% of 12-15 year olds got it in 5 weeks after the beginning of the school year. UK did not vaccinate <16 year olds till 20th September. Now they got forced natural immunity.
nradov 5y ago
The CDC estimated that 36% of Americans had been infected as of May 2021. Numbers are certainly higher now. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...

TechBro8615 5y ago

It obviously depends on your lifestyle, which is also why it should never be mandated. I call this the risk coefficient – it's different for everyone. Personally, I've effectively been self-isolating since January. Why should I get a shot now? Especially if it's going to wear off in 5 months?

azinman2 5y ago
It don't wear off to 0, you're risk of hospitalization or death is far far far greater if you're unvaccinated (even with declining efficacy of catching it), the safety profiles are known to be great especially considering the hundreds of millions vaccinated, and unless you're very extreme you'll want to come out of the woods at some point.

azinman2 5y ago

44.1M verified cases in the out of 329.5M ~= 13%, and that's with verified cases, so it's likely much higher. My guess is younger people are even more likely to get it given their lifestyle is highly social at that age, and risk tolerance is similarly high. Given it's not slowing down, the likelihood of getting covid is actually quite high over time.

krona 5y ago
As with transmissibility, the virulence is not constant over time.
- gfodor 5y ago
  Not to mention as time goes by, many other things are de-risked such as literally our understanding of vaccine side effects and proper mitigations, and new therapies.
marvin 5y ago
These are US numbers, though. Norway, e.g., has tested like crazy and diagnosed 4% of its population with covid throughout the pandemic. Given that the US numbers for covid cases are at least three times higher, the risk assessment will necessarily be different. The Scandinavian solution will likely be to just delay vaccination for a week while a dose of the Pfeizer vaccine is tracked down. The change of contracting covid in that timeframe is very small. These ethical considerations are necessarily local.
- azinman2 5y ago
  That 4% will only go up over time. Per the article they’re only stopping a select demographic for Pfizer.
  - marvin 5y ago
    My point is it won't go up much during the small delay when the small percentage of as-yet unvaccinated young men simply take the other vaccine instead.

nojokes 5y ago

In Scotland about 8% of 12-15 year olds got it in 5 weeks after the beginning of the school year. UK did not vaccinate <16 year olds till 20th September. Now they got forced natural immunity.

nradov 5y ago

The CDC estimated that 36% of Americans had been infected as of May 2021. Numbers are certainly higher now. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...