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"We do have the technical capability to bend the curve on climate change and soften the blow quite a bit." The fundamental economics of the last century was ch

"We do have the technical capability to bend the curve on climate change and soften the blow quite a bit." The fundamental economics of the last century was cheap resource access and cheap technology development. The fundamental economics of the next century are resource shortage. The other primary fundamental economic change in the next century will be 5-6 billion people wanting the lifestyle and resource use of the first world, or even an approximation of it. And finally, global warming will displace several billion people, possibly more. Look at the Syria crisis, probably 1/1000th of the scale of the problem, to see how the world can handle that. When we discuss overpopulation, it is simplified and dumbed down. The real danger isn't some raw count of the number of people (7.9 billion and counting), but that number MULTIPLIED by the amount of resources their lifestyle needs. The pandemic is showing: - we cannot coordinate on a simple thing like "get jabbed once for free" - our economic supply chains are stretched thin, delicate, prone to disruption, and little in the way of redundancy or buffer - And most dangerously, the rich/elite don't care, they think they can fly off if the shit hits the fan.

simonh 5y ago
Firstly the US isn't the whole world, or even "The West". Plenty of countries have handled the pandemic reasonably well and have efficient vaccination programmes with strong public support. Mine is one. Heck even in the US you'll get over it. The Spanish Flu was far worse. I'm a pro-vax mask wearing Covid believer, I think the lockdowns were prudent. Even so, at a civilizational level it's just another speed bump either way. At the civilizational level even WW2 and Soviet and Chinese communism were just speed bumps. That's how powerful the forces of technological and social advancement are. The idea that Brexit or Trump, bad as they are, pose threats to our civilization? It's utterly absurd. Secondly all of those are forward looking predictions. They may happen, they may be mitigated by near term action. Right now we are still on an up swing that has wobbled a bit. That's not to be complacent, we face some tough challenges, but saying we face the possibility of a downward turn and that we are now in a downturn are two completely different things. Claiming the first when it's palpably, visibly not true on any relevant metric doesn't help build credibility for the second prediction.
- dredmorbius 5y ago
  Potter is a Canadian citizen and resident, interviewed on a Canadian podcast, by a Canadian national broadcaster, and works at a Canadian university. His book specifically addresses progress in the West, not the world at large. You seem to be disagreeing for its own sake, and are constructing strawmen or strongly implying counterfactuals to do so. Presuming "your nation" would be the UK, based on your bio's London location ... response to Covid has and continues to be less than exemplary, and "herd immunity" was explicitly mooted as an option. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-pandemic-herd-immunity-uk-boris-johnson/608065/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/coronavir...
imtringued 5y ago
>The fundamental economics of the last century was cheap resource access and cheap technology development. The fundamental economics of the last century was high population growth. >The fundamental economics of the next century are resource shortage. Is this supposed to be some kind of joke? Resource shortages? You mean the thing we've had for the last thousands of years? Come on, the worst case is that these people will keep living in poverty, they aren't going to terrorize the west to demand a higher standard of living. If anything, the problem is abundance in the hands of fewer and fewer people.
- AtlasBarfed 5y ago
  "Come on, the worst case is that these people will keep living in poverty, they aren't going to terrorize the west to demand a higher standard of living." "Is this supposed to be some kind of joke?"

simonh 5y ago

Firstly the US isn't the whole world, or even "The West". Plenty of countries have handled the pandemic reasonably well and have efficient vaccination programmes with strong public support. Mine is one. Heck even in the US you'll get over it. The Spanish Flu was far worse. I'm a pro-vax mask wearing Covid believer, I think the lockdowns were prudent. Even so, at a civilizational level it's just another speed bump either way. At the civilizational level even WW2 and Soviet and Chinese communism were just speed bumps. That's how powerful the forces of technological and social advancement are. The idea that Brexit or Trump, bad as they are, pose threats to our civilization? It's utterly absurd. Secondly all of those are forward looking predictions. They may happen, they may be mitigated by near term action. Right now we are still on an up swing that has wobbled a bit. That's not to be complacent, we face some tough challenges, but saying we face the possibility of a downward turn and that we are now in a downturn are two completely different things. Claiming the first when it's palpably, visibly not true on any relevant metric doesn't help build credibility for the second prediction.

dredmorbius 5y ago
Potter is a Canadian citizen and resident, interviewed on a Canadian podcast, by a Canadian national broadcaster, and works at a Canadian university. His book specifically addresses progress in the West, not the world at large. You seem to be disagreeing for its own sake, and are constructing strawmen or strongly implying counterfactuals to do so. Presuming "your nation" would be the UK, based on your bio's London location ... response to Covid has and continues to be less than exemplary, and "herd immunity" was explicitly mooted as an option. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-pandemic-herd-immunity-uk-boris-johnson/608065/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/coronavir...

imtringued 5y ago

>The fundamental economics of the last century was cheap resource access and cheap technology development. The fundamental economics of the last century was high population growth. >The fundamental economics of the next century are resource shortage. Is this supposed to be some kind of joke? Resource shortages? You mean the thing we've had for the last thousands of years? Come on, the worst case is that these people will keep living in poverty, they aren't going to terrorize the west to demand a higher standard of living. If anything, the problem is abundance in the hands of fewer and fewer people.

AtlasBarfed 5y ago
"Come on, the worst case is that these people will keep living in poverty, they aren't going to terrorize the west to demand a higher standard of living." "Is this supposed to be some kind of joke?"