5 ms·

Saying something is safe and effective doesn't make it so. That said, the numbers of death and continued infections don't lie. Brazil was ivermectin happy, bu

by bb88 5y ago

Saying something is safe and effective doesn't make it so. That said, the numbers of death and continued infections don't lie. Brazil was ivermectin happy, but it didn't stop the infections and subsequent deaths. What is stopping infections and deaths? The vaccine. That's pretty clear. So why aren't you 100% behind the vaccine? Are you too wrapped up with your stance with Ivermectin that you can no longer change your view?

incrudible 5y ago
The vaccines are not stopping infections. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00808-7 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00808-7
- nojokes 5y ago
  I have commented about this load of crap elsewhere. In short: they add include complete nonsense - statistics from Africa and 3 specific outliers - Israel, Mongolia (both vaccinated very quickly) and Malaysia (got into large wave just before vaccination started to ramp up).
- smorgusofborg 5y ago
  That high level overview doesn't really mean it isn't stopping infections. In a place with ~50% vaccination a larger portion of unvaccinated are taking additional isolation precautions either by intelligence or by force, but infection could primarily be from a minority of super spreaders to others, etc so this data doesn't indicate that the current transmission mode would be possible in a highly vaccinated population.
  - incrudible 5y ago
    …but there are highly vaccinated populations with high infection rates, right? If the vaccines actually stopped infections, this should not be possible. There is a brief window (1-2 months) where the vaccines reduce infections by up to 95%, but that number drops quickly. After six months, there is virtually no reduction.
    - smorgusofborg 5y ago
      > …but there are highly vaccinated populations with high infection rates, right? Israel is about the highest examined and it is not high enough to know how a control group of vaccinated verse unvaccinated individuals would fare in a place where any other individual was vaccinated or bellow 12. 95% was in a retail lock down environment. In the current environment I am having hundreds of interactions a week with the unvaccinated and if I were unvaccinated would have far fewer, obviously a test run in this environment should achieve less than 95% and may appear that vaccination causes COVID because the economy is running on acceptable risks.
      - incrudible 5y ago
        The paper also examined individual counties in the US and found no correlation. There have been numerous outbreaks within fully vaccinated groups. You can speculate that these outbreaks would've been even bigger if these groups weren't vaccinated, but ultimately the virus spreads no matter what. The word "stop" to me implies an end to viral spread, not an indeterminate amount of reduction - that's a "slowdown".
        smorgusofborg 5y ago
        > but ultimately the virus spreads no matter what. No, the virus spreads as a function of what actions you take and society slows based on what actions you take. If no one is dieing or going to hospital you choose economy and cases go up but if you are highly vaccinated then the consequences are not enough to not open up further and you run with higher numbers of known cases. A correlation study is irrelevant to how effective vaccination is, just as any other intervention might appear ineffective if it allows systems to remove stricter restrictions with higher societal impact or makes people feel safe enough to participate in additional activities. Some unvaccinated people in my town feel safe enough to do things because more people are safe and are doing them than in a town with no vaccination and more conservative average behavior, that doesn't mean the vaccine didn't work.
- javagram 5y ago
  Other studies show the vaccines provide between 40-70% reduction in COVID-19 Delta infections.[0] Looking at your link, it looks like the comparisons they make are purely based on COVID case counts and vaccination percentages. There are other factors that need to be considered: counties with higher vaccination rates in the USA are also likely to have a higher rate of testing, due to the politics of COVID (people who are more afraid of COVID are both more likely to be vaccinated and more likely to get a test when sick). At the country scale, it seems like something similar may be going on: they compare Portugal and Israel with the poorer countries of South Africa and Vietnam and state their case rates are similar. But different countries are using different policies which may affect the infection rate there. For instance, Vietnam has used lockdowns and border closures in recent months to slow the spread of the virus,[1] while Portugal with its high vaccination rates has recently removed almost all COVID restrictions.[2] [0] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/25/covid-protection-for-the-fully-vaccinated-is-waning-uk-study-finds.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/25/covid-protection-for-the-ful... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Vietnam#May_2021–present:_Severe_outbreak https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Vietnam#M... [2] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/portugal-lift-most-remaining-covid-19-curbs-pm-calls-responsibility-2021-09-23/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/portugal-lift-most-rema...
  - incrudible 5y ago
    There is currently no reduction in infections among double vaccinated people in Israel. Waning protection against infection means that any study giving a single number for reduction is a snapshot of a situation in the past, not a predictor. Perhaps staggered booster administration in 3 month intervals could achieve a constant reduction approaching 90%.
    - javagram 5y ago
      Many Israelis have received a booster shot. Comparing “double vaccinated” population there would need to take into account and adjust for the reasons why that segment of the population did not receive a booster. Otherwise you aren’t comparing like for like. Using a country that had not given out boosters, like the USA or UK until recently, you’d get a better idea of the efficacy of the vaccine against Delta infections. Moreover even in Israel the daily cases among double vaccinated are less than those among the unvaccinated. Look at the chart here https://www.ft.com/content/a1b2fd70-71b5-4e91-be0b-553b0e1e2639 https://www.ft.com/content/a1b2fd70-71b5-4e91-be0b-553b0e1e2... The line for “Two dose” cases per 100k among over 60 year olds is below unvaccinated since august 15 and continually remains less. 90%? No, that’s too high, but for instance data from public health England is saying the vaccines have around 15-45% efficacy (or 40-80% if doses 8+ weeks apart) against covid-19 infection after 25+ weeks, not 0%. https://mobile.twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1437890711139995648 https://mobile.twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1437890711139995...
ekianjo 5y ago
> What is stopping infections and deaths? The vaccine. Vaccinated people still get and spread infections - They simply dont get much symptoms from it. This kind of comment is exactly why people don't understand what the "vaccines" actually do.
- tinus_hn 5y ago
  You need to believe vaccines stop infections to be able to blame the unvaccinated for the continuation of the pandemic.
  - smorgusofborg 5y ago
    You need to believe that vaccines stop an adequate proportion of the infections between vaccinated individuals to believe full vaccination would end the pandemic[1]. But you don't even have to believe that when it comes to the relevance of the pandemic. Looking at the number of people who are vaccinated (or bellow vaccination age) and go to hospital or die in my country it would be a severe but acceptable flu season. Does every severe flu season need a pandemic response? (1- Within the round of first infections. You can actually believe that it is insufficient on contagion but ends viable mutation and will end the pandemic by using delta as a booster.)
    - tinus_hn 5y ago
      Ah, the old ‘vaccinations will prevent mutations’ fantasy. Even if you believe it is possible to vaccinate the entire human population world wide and that vaccinations prevent infections, covid spreads through animal reservoirs. Are you suggesting we can vaccinate all animals?
      - smorgusofborg 5y ago
        Mutation in animals typically lower it's viability in humans. So the question is if I have been vaccinated and there aren't enough unvaccinated people to jam hospitals, why do I continue to care about viruses in animal populations that are just like any other virus that might pop up the next time someone licks a bat? If I'm willing to take any sort of vaccine for it when it becomes viable again in humans, then I'm safer once it is purely in animals than I was before it was present in humans.

by bb88 5y ago

incrudible 5y ago

The vaccines are not stopping infections. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00808-7 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00808-7

nojokes 5y ago
I have commented about this load of crap elsewhere. In short: they add include complete nonsense - statistics from Africa and 3 specific outliers - Israel, Mongolia (both vaccinated very quickly) and Malaysia (got into large wave just before vaccination started to ramp up).
smorgusofborg 5y ago
That high level overview doesn't really mean it isn't stopping infections. In a place with ~50% vaccination a larger portion of unvaccinated are taking additional isolation precautions either by intelligence or by force, but infection could primarily be from a minority of super spreaders to others, etc so this data doesn't indicate that the current transmission mode would be possible in a highly vaccinated population.
- incrudible 5y ago
  …but there are highly vaccinated populations with high infection rates, right? If the vaccines actually stopped infections, this should not be possible. There is a brief window (1-2 months) where the vaccines reduce infections by up to 95%, but that number drops quickly. After six months, there is virtually no reduction.
  - smorgusofborg 5y ago
    > …but there are highly vaccinated populations with high infection rates, right? Israel is about the highest examined and it is not high enough to know how a control group of vaccinated verse unvaccinated individuals would fare in a place where any other individual was vaccinated or bellow 12. 95% was in a retail lock down environment. In the current environment I am having hundreds of interactions a week with the unvaccinated and if I were unvaccinated would have far fewer, obviously a test run in this environment should achieve less than 95% and may appear that vaccination causes COVID because the economy is running on acceptable risks.
    - incrudible 5y ago
      The paper also examined individual counties in the US and found no correlation. There have been numerous outbreaks within fully vaccinated groups. You can speculate that these outbreaks would've been even bigger if these groups weren't vaccinated, but ultimately the virus spreads no matter what. The word "stop" to me implies an end to viral spread, not an indeterminate amount of reduction - that's a "slowdown".
      - smorgusofborg 5y ago
        > but ultimately the virus spreads no matter what. No, the virus spreads as a function of what actions you take and society slows based on what actions you take. If no one is dieing or going to hospital you choose economy and cases go up but if you are highly vaccinated then the consequences are not enough to not open up further and you run with higher numbers of known cases. A correlation study is irrelevant to how effective vaccination is, just as any other intervention might appear ineffective if it allows systems to remove stricter restrictions with higher societal impact or makes people feel safe enough to participate in additional activities. Some unvaccinated people in my town feel safe enough to do things because more people are safe and are doing them than in a town with no vaccination and more conservative average behavior, that doesn't mean the vaccine didn't work.
javagram 5y ago
Other studies show the vaccines provide between 40-70% reduction in COVID-19 Delta infections.[0] Looking at your link, it looks like the comparisons they make are purely based on COVID case counts and vaccination percentages. There are other factors that need to be considered: counties with higher vaccination rates in the USA are also likely to have a higher rate of testing, due to the politics of COVID (people who are more afraid of COVID are both more likely to be vaccinated and more likely to get a test when sick). At the country scale, it seems like something similar may be going on: they compare Portugal and Israel with the poorer countries of South Africa and Vietnam and state their case rates are similar. But different countries are using different policies which may affect the infection rate there. For instance, Vietnam has used lockdowns and border closures in recent months to slow the spread of the virus,[1] while Portugal with its high vaccination rates has recently removed almost all COVID restrictions.[2] [0] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/25/covid-protection-for-the-fully-vaccinated-is-waning-uk-study-finds.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/25/covid-protection-for-the-ful... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Vietnam#May_2021–present:_Severe_outbreak https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Vietnam#M... [2] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/portugal-lift-most-remaining-covid-19-curbs-pm-calls-responsibility-2021-09-23/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/portugal-lift-most-rema...
- incrudible 5y ago
  There is currently no reduction in infections among double vaccinated people in Israel. Waning protection against infection means that any study giving a single number for reduction is a snapshot of a situation in the past, not a predictor. Perhaps staggered booster administration in 3 month intervals could achieve a constant reduction approaching 90%.
  - javagram 5y ago
    Many Israelis have received a booster shot. Comparing “double vaccinated” population there would need to take into account and adjust for the reasons why that segment of the population did not receive a booster. Otherwise you aren’t comparing like for like. Using a country that had not given out boosters, like the USA or UK until recently, you’d get a better idea of the efficacy of the vaccine against Delta infections. Moreover even in Israel the daily cases among double vaccinated are less than those among the unvaccinated. Look at the chart here https://www.ft.com/content/a1b2fd70-71b5-4e91-be0b-553b0e1e2639 https://www.ft.com/content/a1b2fd70-71b5-4e91-be0b-553b0e1e2... The line for “Two dose” cases per 100k among over 60 year olds is below unvaccinated since august 15 and continually remains less. 90%? No, that’s too high, but for instance data from public health England is saying the vaccines have around 15-45% efficacy (or 40-80% if doses 8+ weeks apart) against covid-19 infection after 25+ weeks, not 0%. https://mobile.twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1437890711139995648 https://mobile.twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1437890711139995...

ekianjo 5y ago

> What is stopping infections and deaths? The vaccine. Vaccinated people still get and spread infections - They simply dont get much symptoms from it. This kind of comment is exactly why people don't understand what the "vaccines" actually do.

tinus_hn 5y ago
You need to believe vaccines stop infections to be able to blame the unvaccinated for the continuation of the pandemic.
- smorgusofborg 5y ago
  You need to believe that vaccines stop an adequate proportion of the infections between vaccinated individuals to believe full vaccination would end the pandemic[1]. But you don't even have to believe that when it comes to the relevance of the pandemic. Looking at the number of people who are vaccinated (or bellow vaccination age) and go to hospital or die in my country it would be a severe but acceptable flu season. Does every severe flu season need a pandemic response? (1- Within the round of first infections. You can actually believe that it is insufficient on contagion but ends viable mutation and will end the pandemic by using delta as a booster.)
  - tinus_hn 5y ago
    Ah, the old ‘vaccinations will prevent mutations’ fantasy. Even if you believe it is possible to vaccinate the entire human population world wide and that vaccinations prevent infections, covid spreads through animal reservoirs. Are you suggesting we can vaccinate all animals?
    - smorgusofborg 5y ago
      Mutation in animals typically lower it's viability in humans. So the question is if I have been vaccinated and there aren't enough unvaccinated people to jam hospitals, why do I continue to care about viruses in animal populations that are just like any other virus that might pop up the next time someone licks a bat? If I'm willing to take any sort of vaccine for it when it becomes viable again in humans, then I'm safer once it is purely in animals than I was before it was present in humans.