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People mostly don't know how to measure advice. You ask one person and they tell you "it's all about marketing", someone else will say that "technical excellenc

People mostly don't know how to measure advice. You ask one person and they tell you "it's all about marketing", someone else will say that "technical excellence is more important than anything else". Even though a lot of advice is contradictory and very context-dependent, people don't notice this and lap it up. The truth is that probably most successful people can't tell luck, serendipity and hard-work from wisdom. Times change, opportunities change etc. so how much is advice really worth? The only good advice is an answer to a specific question with very clear boundaries: "How much is a good amount to spend on Facebook advertising?", "If you have a product aimed at the mass market and you can correlate success of click-throughs, spend as much as you want as long as it's less than what you make per-click". Otherwise you get stuff like, "Facebook is great value for money" or "Facebook is a disaster" both useless pieces of advice. I also suspect that those with the correct brain for business probably don't need very much advice because they will quickly work things out themselves.

k__ 5y ago
this. I'm a dev/tech blogger, and I can say, following the right people is half of the success. Not just because of the things they say, but because they can share your work. Every time my work was shared by an influencer in the field, I got one or multiple job/project offers and over the years I made a good living out of it. "being good at tech" only helps in the next step, when you need to proof that you can write better about a tech topic than the average marketeer/content creator.
2OEH8eoCRo0 5y ago
I've noticed that people are uncomfortable with nuance.
mattgreenrocks 5y ago
The "learn the secrets of how $SUCCESSFUL_PERSON did $SUCCESSFUL_THING!" is almost always garbage content. Despite that, it's a massive, massive "industry," that will never die. Once you see the extent of the Matthew Effect [1], it's hard to unsee it. 1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_effect
- andrepd 5y ago
  It is indeed an old phenomenon: https://www.commonlit.org/texts/the-fallacy-of-success https://www.commonlit.org/texts/the-fallacy-of-success
- samhw 5y ago
  The other problem is that there's no reason to assume $SUCCESSFUL_PERSON even knows what made them successful. I was once hanging out with a friend of a friend who was pretty successful in finance, and he said he could no more explain how he succeeded than I could explain how to ride a bike. These things are often tacit knowledge (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tacit_knowledge https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tacit_knowledge), or 'unknown knowns'. In that friend's view - and I think mine too - that's the reason why 'how I succeeded' books by people like Warren Buffett or Bill Ackman almost always turn out to be total dross. Not because they don't want to share their secrets (after all, their secrets would require so much capital to apply as to be impracticable for most) – just that they have no idea. They do know it, at least on some level. For many of them, they could do it again if they had to. They simply aren't consciously aware. (Like Auden once said: "I knew it all the time, but I never realised it before!")
  - Ozzie_osman 5y ago
    Yup. Another analogy is that you probably have a friend (or maybe you are that friend?) who happens to very good attracting (romantic) attention when you go out in public. Ask them what their secret is. They might have some basic, universal things like "dress nicely", "have good hygiene", "get in shape", etc, and those things might help you (10% of the way there), but in reality, they just happened to have been handed some lucky genetics that made them attractive / charismatic, so none of the advice they give you will work (in fact, some of it might back-fire like "smile at strangers"). On the other hand, if you can find the person that _isn't_ naturally good at the skill but was somehow able to get decent at it, even if they're not the best at it, they're more likely to have beneficial advice.
    - bumby 5y ago
      >if you can find the person that _isn't_ naturally good at the skill but was somehow able to get decent at it, even if they're not the best at it, they're more likely to have beneficial advice. This reminded me of the advice to learn how to run a marathon, don't look at what most people in the race were doing to train, look at the person who's doing well despite looking like they shouldn't be there. I.e., don't look at the 140 lbs guys at the front of the pack for advice, look to the 280 lb guy in the middle of the pack. Not sure how sage that advice is, but it was an interestingly different way to frame the problem.
xorfish 5y ago
> The truth is that probably most successful people can't tell luck, serendipity and hard-work from wisdom. Times change, opportunities change etc. so how much is advice really worth? The ability to work hard is also always 100% luck. Humans do not control their DNA or what environment shaped them to be able and have the desire to work hard.
- CivBase 5y ago
  Are there any credible studies demonstrating a strong link between genetics and motivation/drive/work-ethic? I don't doubt that DNA plays a part, but I'm hesitant to accept claims that it's 100% genetic.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - xorfish 5y ago
    DNA is just one puzzle piece that explains human behavior, together with many other factors. Those factors are not yours to control. Even if you are able to influence some of them, the ability to do so is dependent on factors you do not control.
    - munk-a 5y ago
      That's a rather fatalist view to take - I don't actually disagree with it but being unable to control your development doesn't free you from responsibility for it. We don't actually control anything at a basic level - we are just responding to different environmental effects with the learned behaviors we got from earlier environmental effects - in that way we are just perpetuating machines that will echo observations from earlier times. That isn't to say we can only parrot what we've seen - we can compile quite a complex response from all the experiences we've garnered... but we are nothing except some genetic starter (which we can probably mostly write off as just experiences we gained before birth as a genetic super-organism) and experiences. That all said that still leaves us with our individuality, desire to act and responsibility. And it leaves us with as much control over our ability to act as any other control - you can accept that our actions are rather mechanical results of prior experiences but not reject the fact that they're still our actions.
bena 5y ago
Success is multifaceted. If there's a formula or equation for success, it's a combination of luck, talent, work ethic, and several other things. And not to mention every facet is fungible with every other facet. If you're lucky enough, talent and work ethic matter less. If you're talented enough, maybe you don't need as much luck. Etc. But for the vast majority, there's going to be a combination. I think that's what people don't truly get. You can work as hard as possible, but you do need a little luck to get that work noticed.
WalterBright 5y ago
Some advice that actually works is: Take responsibility for things that happen to you. Taking responsibility means you can do something about it if it isn't what you want. Assigning responsibility to others means there's nothing you can do about your situation.

k__ 5y ago

this. I'm a dev/tech blogger, and I can say, following the right people is half of the success. Not just because of the things they say, but because they can share your work. Every time my work was shared by an influencer in the field, I got one or multiple job/project offers and over the years I made a good living out of it. "being good at tech" only helps in the next step, when you need to proof that you can write better about a tech topic than the average marketeer/content creator.

2OEH8eoCRo0 5y ago

I've noticed that people are uncomfortable with nuance.

mattgreenrocks 5y ago

The "learn the secrets of how $SUCCESSFUL_PERSON did $SUCCESSFUL_THING!" is almost always garbage content. Despite that, it's a massive, massive "industry," that will never die. Once you see the extent of the Matthew Effect [1], it's hard to unsee it. 1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_effect

andrepd 5y ago
It is indeed an old phenomenon: https://www.commonlit.org/texts/the-fallacy-of-success https://www.commonlit.org/texts/the-fallacy-of-success
samhw 5y ago
The other problem is that there's no reason to assume $SUCCESSFUL_PERSON even knows what made them successful. I was once hanging out with a friend of a friend who was pretty successful in finance, and he said he could no more explain how he succeeded than I could explain how to ride a bike. These things are often tacit knowledge (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tacit_knowledge https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tacit_knowledge), or 'unknown knowns'. In that friend's view - and I think mine too - that's the reason why 'how I succeeded' books by people like Warren Buffett or Bill Ackman almost always turn out to be total dross. Not because they don't want to share their secrets (after all, their secrets would require so much capital to apply as to be impracticable for most) – just that they have no idea. They do know it, at least on some level. For many of them, they could do it again if they had to. They simply aren't consciously aware. (Like Auden once said: "I knew it all the time, but I never realised it before!")
- Ozzie_osman 5y ago
  Yup. Another analogy is that you probably have a friend (or maybe you are that friend?) who happens to very good attracting (romantic) attention when you go out in public. Ask them what their secret is. They might have some basic, universal things like "dress nicely", "have good hygiene", "get in shape", etc, and those things might help you (10% of the way there), but in reality, they just happened to have been handed some lucky genetics that made them attractive / charismatic, so none of the advice they give you will work (in fact, some of it might back-fire like "smile at strangers"). On the other hand, if you can find the person that _isn't_ naturally good at the skill but was somehow able to get decent at it, even if they're not the best at it, they're more likely to have beneficial advice.
  - bumby 5y ago
    >if you can find the person that _isn't_ naturally good at the skill but was somehow able to get decent at it, even if they're not the best at it, they're more likely to have beneficial advice. This reminded me of the advice to learn how to run a marathon, don't look at what most people in the race were doing to train, look at the person who's doing well despite looking like they shouldn't be there. I.e., don't look at the 140 lbs guys at the front of the pack for advice, look to the 280 lb guy in the middle of the pack. Not sure how sage that advice is, but it was an interestingly different way to frame the problem.

xorfish 5y ago

> The truth is that probably most successful people can't tell luck, serendipity and hard-work from wisdom. Times change, opportunities change etc. so how much is advice really worth? The ability to work hard is also always 100% luck. Humans do not control their DNA or what environment shaped them to be able and have the desire to work hard.

CivBase 5y ago
Are there any credible studies demonstrating a strong link between genetics and motivation/drive/work-ethic? I don't doubt that DNA plays a part, but I'm hesitant to accept claims that it's 100% genetic.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- xorfish 5y ago
  DNA is just one puzzle piece that explains human behavior, together with many other factors. Those factors are not yours to control. Even if you are able to influence some of them, the ability to do so is dependent on factors you do not control.
  - munk-a 5y ago
    That's a rather fatalist view to take - I don't actually disagree with it but being unable to control your development doesn't free you from responsibility for it. We don't actually control anything at a basic level - we are just responding to different environmental effects with the learned behaviors we got from earlier environmental effects - in that way we are just perpetuating machines that will echo observations from earlier times. That isn't to say we can only parrot what we've seen - we can compile quite a complex response from all the experiences we've garnered... but we are nothing except some genetic starter (which we can probably mostly write off as just experiences we gained before birth as a genetic super-organism) and experiences. That all said that still leaves us with our individuality, desire to act and responsibility. And it leaves us with as much control over our ability to act as any other control - you can accept that our actions are rather mechanical results of prior experiences but not reject the fact that they're still our actions.

bena 5y ago

Success is multifaceted. If there's a formula or equation for success, it's a combination of luck, talent, work ethic, and several other things. And not to mention every facet is fungible with every other facet. If you're lucky enough, talent and work ethic matter less. If you're talented enough, maybe you don't need as much luck. Etc. But for the vast majority, there's going to be a combination. I think that's what people don't truly get. You can work as hard as possible, but you do need a little luck to get that work noticed.

WalterBright 5y ago

Some advice that actually works is: Take responsibility for things that happen to you. Taking responsibility means you can do something about it if it isn't what you want. Assigning responsibility to others means there's nothing you can do about your situation.