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Meteorologists have it easy, because weather doesn't react to the forecast and modify its behaviour to invalidate it.
by fulafel 5y ago
Meteorologists have it easy, because weather doesn't react to the forecast and modify its behaviour to invalidate it.
- shrimp_emoji 5y agoSelf-aware weather with neurosis...
- cubano 5y agoPersonally, I always love the "50% chance of rain" forecast as it perfectly describes that they have no idea if its going to rain or not, but yet sounds so scientific and official.
- posco 5y agoPredicting 50% can be validated: if I say a coin will be heads 50% of the time, I know more than nothing: I know more than someone who incorrectly claims it will be heads 75% of the time. And we can quantify in various ways how much better the 50% prediction is than the 75% prediction.
- Stratoscope 5y agoThat's actually not what "50% chance of rain" means. Here's a pretty good explanation: https://www.wsfa.com/2019/08/23/what-does-chance-rain-really-mean/ https://www.wsfa.com/2019/08/23/what-does-chance-rain-really... And many more: https://www.google.com/search?q=50%25+chance+of+rain https://www.google.com/search?q=50%25+chance+of+rain
- elcomet 5y agoThat is absolutely not "we have no idea". It's a very precise prediction, not like a [10%-90%] range. If you look at all their 50% prediction, the half of it should be rain and half should be no rain. This is what this number tells you.
- WalterBright 5y agoA butterfly flapping its wings would disagree with that.