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"However, Reuters reported in September that it could seek a valuation of nearly $80 billion, raising up to $8 billion in its IPO." $80 billion??? It would be
by pcurve 5y ago
"However, Reuters reported in September that it could seek a valuation of nearly $80 billion, raising up to $8 billion in its IPO."
$80 billion??? It would be 95th on SP500.
Sigh.
Toyota = 300 billion
vw = 140 billion
Daimler = 95 billion.
GM = 77 billion
BMW = 55 billion
Ford = 55 billion
Honda = 55 billion.
Hyundai = 42 billion
Whatever happen to efficient market valuation?
- echelon 5y ago> Whatever happen to efficient market valuation? GME 13 billion AMC 19 billion HOOD 35 billion DOGE 29 billion Retail and memes.
- reducesuffering 5y agoOne of those is not like the other...
- adventured 5y ago> Whatever happen to efficient market valuation? Efficient market hypothesis is entirely fraudulent. It always will be. Fortunately, so investors can keep taking advantage of the endless market inefficiencies. EMH is the equivalent in market theory of believing the Earth is flat. A person has to be wildly irrational and detached from the ability to properly utilize basic reasoning skills in order to buy into it.
- 01100011 5y agoHaven't you seen the various mental gymnastics people use to value electric car mfgs? Sprinkle some technology on an otherwise low-margin industry and suddenly people think you have the next Google or Facebook. Nevermind that the big tech companies became so profitable because they make money off easily scaled SW. No, this time it's different!
- dntrkv 5y agoThat just tells you how little faith everyone has in the existing players launching a competitive, modern EV. The Model S has been on the market for almost 10 years now and there is still zero competition from the large OEMs.
- mgbmtl 5y agoConpanies like Nissan have reliable EVs that have been there for a while (the Leaf). However they make more profit selling petrol-powered SUVs, so the dealers don't promote them. When I tried to buy my Leaf, the sales guy tried to get me to buy another model, and a month after buying the car, I was getting spam for a Pathfinder (monster SUV). I also see a lot of WV e-Golfs on the road, and Chevy Bolts. I don't know how reliable they are (Chevy have battery problems), but I think there definitely is competition.
- SkyPuncher 5y agoMy coworker has a leaf, but must keep their high school car around because the leaf doesn't have enough range in the winter. Tesla nairled the excitement factor that nobody else has
- dntrkv 5y agoNone of those are competitive with Teslas. Range, performance, comfort, features are all miles ahead in the Tesla. Price may be the only factor they're competitive, but the sales numbers don't lie. Nissan has sold 500k Leafs in the last 10 years. Tesla sold 440k Model 3s in 2020 alone. Also, the EV aspect of Teslas is not the only thing that attracts buyers. I know many here on HN don't realize this, but people love the OTA updates that make your car better over time. Tesla takes a software company approach to cars. I don't have faith in any of the existing manufacturers pulling that off. It's a completely different business model that none of incumbents show any proficiency in.
- kiba 5y agoI thought Nissan Leaf had poor reputation for bad battery management.
- jonas21 5y agoThis is the classic innovators dilemma. The established players are afraid to cannibalize their more profitable existing product lines, which presents opportunities for new companies that don't have existing products to cannibalize. That's probably why the markets are betting the way they are. And the Bolt is great. Just make sure not to park within 50 feet of anybody else [1]. [1] https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1133604_gm-asks-chevy-bolt-ev-drivers-to-park-50-feet-from-other-vehicles-due-to-fire-risk https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1133604_gm-asks-chevy-b...
- rich_sasha 5y agoMarket cap is deflated by debt, pension obligations etc. Many of the big US car makers, apparently, pay pensions from their own balance sheets. 'Enterprise value' is the metric, derived from market cap, that corrects for it. "How much is this company's living organism worth, without caring about debts etc.". There Tesla, and Rivian presumably too, look less good, since their EV is not encumbered by decades of debt and pensions. Still...
- rsj_hn 5y agoMarket cap = number of shares * price per share Enterprise value = market cap + debt The thinking is that to buy the company you need to buy the equity and then retire the debt, therefore when a company takes on more debt this increases enterprise value. Another way to think about it is the liability side of the balance sheet. You make $20 in debt and $30 in equity so your total liability is $50. Then market cap = 30 and enterprise value = 50. > Many of the big US car makers, apparently, pay pensions from their own balance sheets. No, pensions are paid out of pension funds, which is an off-balance sheet liability. The only way it kinda indirectly would show up on the balance sheet is if the automaker got sued for underfunding their pension fund and had to issue some debt to make up the shortfall.
- atombender 5y agoYou're thinking of market value, I think. Enterprise value is primarily (market value + debt - cash). Market value does not include debt.
- rich_sasha 5y agoYeah, so if I have 2 companies with same intrinsic value but one with, one without debt, the one with debt has lower market cap. Hence “deflated”.
- bdcravens 5y agoNot explicitly, but it can influence the price, in turn influencing the market value.