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Finally something that is not a straight scam (in my opinion). I know folks are saying Trevor and Nikola Motors have some sort of ground breaking hydrogen tech

Finally something that is not a straight scam (in my opinion). I know folks are saying Trevor and Nikola Motors have some sort of ground breaking hydrogen tech - but some of these other folks, despite their market caps, seem like so much trash and hype. Not sure these folks will turn out better, but at least there seems to be something of some substance here from folks with some experience.

pmorici 5y ago
Pretty sure the Nikola debate has been settled on the side of “it’s a near total scam”. After the report about the video of their truck driving really being it rolling down a hill and the camera was tilted.
- slownews45 5y ago
  Still worth 4 billion in terms of market cap and still getting a lot of hype (and taking shots at tesla of course).
- rewma 5y ago
  > After the report about the video of their truck driving really being it rolling down a hill and the camera was tilted. Because a reference never hurts: https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/09/nikola-admits-prototype-was-rolling-downhill-in-promotional-video/ https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/09/nikola-admits-prototype... https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-54161343 https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-54161343
postingawayonhn 5y ago
Rivian has already raised $10.5b. That's about twice the market cap of Nikola. I think it's safe to say that Rivian had the resources to go finish bringing its products to market.
luckydata 5y ago
it's absolutely not a scam, they make a very tangible, very real car and soon-ish delivery vans. The question is will they do well as a business? I think so.
- mdasen 5y ago
  This is a genuine question: why do you think they’ll do well and how well do you think they’ll do? They’re already starting out at 10% of Tesla’s market cap and a valuation higher than most auto companies. Let’s say they become the next Tesla in a decade. That would be 25% growth per year which is good, but comes with a lot of risk compared to Apple, Google, Amazon, etc. Tesla also launched before the rest of the industry was shipping competitors. Rivian will be facing near immediate competition. Does Rivian have secret sauce others can’t replicate? I haven’t followed them so I truly don’t know. Tesla has massive battery manufacturing, a great brand, a supercharger network, and a decade head start. What makes Rivian special compared to what Ford will be shipping in its F-150 Lightning? Or what so many companies will be shipping in the coming years?
  - luckydata 5y ago
    First of all, they have a large order of trucks from Amazon so they have guaranteed volumes. Second, the thinking that only one car manufacturer can thrive is self evidently false since we had for years dozens of car brands. Third, they don't really compete with Ford, they compete with Land Rover and Jeep and they are the first brand to bring something to that segment of the market that's electric. Plus I've seen the car and it's an awesome vehicle, I have no crystal ball but I'm willing to bet they'll do well.
    - throwaway9980 5y ago
      Amazon has invested in Rivian and they have the advantage of being “not Musk”. Bezos doesn’t want to give Musk any business. I thought it was funny that they made a big show of using Rivian trucks for the retrieval after the Blue Origin flight.
      - luckydata 5y ago
        I'm talking delivery trucks, not drive around town trucks, just to clarify.
hn_throwaway_99 5y ago
> I know folks are saying Trevor and Nikola Motors have some sort of ground breaking hydrogen tech So, they have "ground breaking tech" in a dead-end technology then? The energy losses required to power vehicles with hydrogen are much greater than losses with electric batteries (there was a recent article on HN that really drove this point home for me). Seems like the only folks pushing hydrogen these days are folks that made bets on what turned out to be the wrong tech (cough, cough, Toyota).
- jazzyjackson 5y ago
  I like hydrogen. The idea that every personal vehicle should have 1000 pounds of lithium-cobalt-etc is crazy to me, that's before getting into super-trucks and 18 wheelers, then not to mention aircraft and cargo ships. Batteries are neat, but I'm not sure they scale.
  - devoutsalsa 5y ago
    I was hoping we’d just make synthetic gasoline from atmospheric carbon dioxide. Wouldn’t require changing any infrastructure at all. Just make gibs of it using renewables. It sounds good in theory anyway.
    - moonchrome 5y ago
      One of the nice aspects of electric cars is going to be eliminating city polution and reducing road noise. I have no idea what the CO2 impact would be and don't really care that much ("cutting CO2 will reset the climate to some state we like" sounds like wishful thinking and most of the talk in this space is ideologically coloured I don't even want to pay attention) but the improvement in urban living is going to be undeniable.
      - jazzyjackson 5y ago
        aside from accelerating at stoplights, electric cars and gas cars make similar noise levels just from the rubber against the road. rubber is a significant pollutant as well, as is brake dust. Don’t get me wrong, electric is much better, i’m only nitpicking since you said “eliminating”

pmorici 5y ago

Pretty sure the Nikola debate has been settled on the side of “it’s a near total scam”. After the report about the video of their truck driving really being it rolling down a hill and the camera was tilted.

slownews45 5y ago
Still worth 4 billion in terms of market cap and still getting a lot of hype (and taking shots at tesla of course).
rewma 5y ago
> After the report about the video of their truck driving really being it rolling down a hill and the camera was tilted. Because a reference never hurts: https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/09/nikola-admits-prototype-was-rolling-downhill-in-promotional-video/ https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/09/nikola-admits-prototype... https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-54161343 https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-54161343

postingawayonhn 5y ago

Rivian has already raised $10.5b. That's about twice the market cap of Nikola. I think it's safe to say that Rivian had the resources to go finish bringing its products to market.

luckydata 5y ago

it's absolutely not a scam, they make a very tangible, very real car and soon-ish delivery vans. The question is will they do well as a business? I think so.

mdasen 5y ago
This is a genuine question: why do you think they’ll do well and how well do you think they’ll do? They’re already starting out at 10% of Tesla’s market cap and a valuation higher than most auto companies. Let’s say they become the next Tesla in a decade. That would be 25% growth per year which is good, but comes with a lot of risk compared to Apple, Google, Amazon, etc. Tesla also launched before the rest of the industry was shipping competitors. Rivian will be facing near immediate competition. Does Rivian have secret sauce others can’t replicate? I haven’t followed them so I truly don’t know. Tesla has massive battery manufacturing, a great brand, a supercharger network, and a decade head start. What makes Rivian special compared to what Ford will be shipping in its F-150 Lightning? Or what so many companies will be shipping in the coming years?
- luckydata 5y ago
  First of all, they have a large order of trucks from Amazon so they have guaranteed volumes. Second, the thinking that only one car manufacturer can thrive is self evidently false since we had for years dozens of car brands. Third, they don't really compete with Ford, they compete with Land Rover and Jeep and they are the first brand to bring something to that segment of the market that's electric. Plus I've seen the car and it's an awesome vehicle, I have no crystal ball but I'm willing to bet they'll do well.
  - throwaway9980 5y ago
    Amazon has invested in Rivian and they have the advantage of being “not Musk”. Bezos doesn’t want to give Musk any business. I thought it was funny that they made a big show of using Rivian trucks for the retrieval after the Blue Origin flight.
    - luckydata 5y ago
      I'm talking delivery trucks, not drive around town trucks, just to clarify.

hn_throwaway_99 5y ago

> I know folks are saying Trevor and Nikola Motors have some sort of ground breaking hydrogen tech So, they have "ground breaking tech" in a dead-end technology then? The energy losses required to power vehicles with hydrogen are much greater than losses with electric batteries (there was a recent article on HN that really drove this point home for me). Seems like the only folks pushing hydrogen these days are folks that made bets on what turned out to be the wrong tech (cough, cough, Toyota).

jazzyjackson 5y ago
I like hydrogen. The idea that every personal vehicle should have 1000 pounds of lithium-cobalt-etc is crazy to me, that's before getting into super-trucks and 18 wheelers, then not to mention aircraft and cargo ships. Batteries are neat, but I'm not sure they scale.
- devoutsalsa 5y ago
  I was hoping we’d just make synthetic gasoline from atmospheric carbon dioxide. Wouldn’t require changing any infrastructure at all. Just make gibs of it using renewables. It sounds good in theory anyway.
  - moonchrome 5y ago
    One of the nice aspects of electric cars is going to be eliminating city polution and reducing road noise. I have no idea what the CO2 impact would be and don't really care that much ("cutting CO2 will reset the climate to some state we like" sounds like wishful thinking and most of the talk in this space is ideologically coloured I don't even want to pay attention) but the improvement in urban living is going to be undeniable.
    - jazzyjackson 5y ago
      aside from accelerating at stoplights, electric cars and gas cars make similar noise levels just from the rubber against the road. rubber is a significant pollutant as well, as is brake dust. Don’t get me wrong, electric is much better, i’m only nitpicking since you said “eliminating”