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Rivian S-1
- seattle_spring 5y agoExciting. Definitely a company I believe in.
- lemming 5y agoI don't usually follow these things, but wouldn't it be unusual for a company to go public before actually releasing a product?
- dragontamer 5y agoModerna went public before it had any product available. EDIT: I'm not saying that Rivian would be as good a purchase as Moderna but... yeah. This sort of thing has become way more common in recent years. This is definitely the high-risk / high-reward area of investing: buying companies that you don't even know work or not yet (Moderna IPO'd in 2018, long before COVID19 even existed. There was pretty much no way to know it'd be the miracle drug to a non-existent disease just two years later) On the other hand: Moderna's success shows why the stock market is a magical thing. The money pumped into Moderna through the IPO allowed it get the money needed to build up its research facilities, in effect preparing for COVID19 even before the disease appeared. -------- "Going public" means one thing and one thing only: the company wants money, and they think bonds (aka: borrowing money from a bank) is a bad value. Its still up to the investor to decide if giving money to the company is a worthwhile trade.
- Kkoala 5y agoAlso a sign that things might be overheating
- dragontamer 5y agoI mean, that's sorta the point of the market. If there's lots of jubilance, companies can extract money from shares better than from bonds. That's why the investor needs a sharp and savvy mind. I think Rivian is a good company btw, but the rumored IPO prices are insane. You need to be both a good company and at a good price to be worthy of buying.
- cptskippy 5y agoHow long does it take to go public? They're asking to go ASAP but is that days, weeks, months from now? They're shipping the founders edition preorders in November.
- thrill 5y agoAs long as the SEC doesn't request more information, and they've had this filing in a confidential manner for awhile now, they could start trading Monday. But, it's more likely to be announced to build the media buzz. That said, they want to capitalize on the highly positive press they got out of the journalist drives a few days ago - I've read/watched most of them and I feel like literally half of them ordered a vehicle themselves, so sooner is better while that buzz exists.
- cptskippy 5y ago> I've read/watched most of them and I feel like literally half of them ordered a vehicle themselves, so sooner is better while that buzz exists. Yeah, most of them are like "I've never been off-road in my life but this truck seems legit. Here's a photo of me in the trunk." I'm still excited and wish them much success.
- postingawayonhn 5y agoThey started production about 2 weeks ago and have made a few deliveries to early employees.
- bink 5y agoAs a reservation holder myself I don't really consider "delivering" to employees to be releasing a product. Employees aren't free to discuss flaws or other problems and no doubt get priority for fixes/repairs.
- postingawayonhn 5y agoI'm certain they will make deliveries to non-insider customers before the IPO. They're clearly close to that and it would be a really bad look if they didn't.
- bink 5y agoYeah, I agree. I'm just a bit disappointed that they said deliveries would start in September and then only delivered a tiny number to employees.
- karanbhangui 5y agoYes, and also Rivian has production pickup truck and Amazon delivery vans....
- helipad 5y agoI saw my first Rivian in the wild last Sunday. I live near their head office in Plymouth, MI so I presume it was an employee. Looked sort of toy-like, not like a typical truck.
- aerospace_guy 5y agoIt seems this is becoming the norm these days. Astra, Joby Aviation, Lucid Motors, Archer and a few others in the aerospace/automotive industries have done this recently.
- mxschumacher 5y agoThere's certainly the appetite for it in the market, valuations are very high, so it's a smart way to get a liquidity event and raise further funds. In the recent past, companies have gone public with a lot less. The product and orders are real, not just empty promises and 3d animations.
- sparrc 5y agoIt does seem a bit odd to me too, but FWIW this is actually fairly common for biotech and pharma startups and has been for a long time. And although they haven't sold any consumer cars yet my understanding is they're currently delivering vans to Amazon as we speak.
- pmorici 5y agoPretty sure their first vehicle deliveries are eminent if they haven’t already happened.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- rasz 5y agoOnly if its a real company intending to manufacture said product.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- slownews45 5y agoFinally something that is not a straight scam (in my opinion). I know folks are saying Trevor and Nikola Motors have some sort of ground breaking hydrogen tech - but some of these other folks, despite their market caps, seem like so much trash and hype. Not sure these folks will turn out better, but at least there seems to be something of some substance here from folks with some experience.
- pmorici 5y agoPretty sure the Nikola debate has been settled on the side of “it’s a near total scam”. After the report about the video of their truck driving really being it rolling down a hill and the camera was tilted.
- slownews45 5y agoStill worth 4 billion in terms of market cap and still getting a lot of hype (and taking shots at tesla of course).
- rewma 5y ago> After the report about the video of their truck driving really being it rolling down a hill and the camera was tilted. Because a reference never hurts: https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/09/nikola-admits-prototype-was-rolling-downhill-in-promotional-video/ https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/09/nikola-admits-prototype... https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-54161343 https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-54161343
- postingawayonhn 5y agoRivian has already raised $10.5b. That's about twice the market cap of Nikola. I think it's safe to say that Rivian had the resources to go finish bringing its products to market.
- luckydata 5y agoit's absolutely not a scam, they make a very tangible, very real car and soon-ish delivery vans. The question is will they do well as a business? I think so.
- Max-20 5y agoI invested this week in $GGPI/Polestar, they are a swedish EV company that already delivered 20k cars. Valuation is $20b or 1/4th of Rivian: https://www.datocms-assets.com/11286/1632735805-210927-polestar-investor-presentation-final.pdf https://www.datocms-assets.com/11286/1632735805-210927-poles...
- nemothekid 5y agoInteresting, do you have any idea how that works. I thought Polestar was a brand/subsidiary of Volvo?
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- ardit33 5y agoNo, owned by Geely, which owns Volvo as well. It is an attempt from Geely to gain foothold in the western markets without being associated as a chinese brand, but as a swedish one.
- chrisseaton 5y agoI think it's more complicated than that - it was certainly owned entirely by Volvo as recently as 2015 and seems to share basically all engineering resources with Volvo. Seems like a funny attempt somewhere to make it seem like something other than Volvo - not sure why as Volvo has a reputation that's fairly decent already, if a bit dull and parental. I guess that's why Polestar is separate - to be more fashionable. Polestar still 'engineer' Volvos - I think it was at some point like BMW's 'M' thing - like a badge?
- prescriptivist 5y agoScrolling through this I see a fair amount of references to subscription products as a long term growth strategy. HN sentiment seems pretty positive about Rivian so I'm curious what folks here feel about that aspect of their business? In particular if one juxtaposes that strategy against what I perceive to be a general anti John Deere sentiment around here vis-a-vie subscriptions and their always-on products.
- chrisseaton 5y agoI think you have this backwards - subscription implies if it's broken that's their problem. John Deer if it breaks it's your problem because you own it but you can't fix it.
- prescriptivist 5y agoI don't think I have it backwards, but I may be wrong. My interpretation is that there is there is subscription cooked into how they understand the pricing and return (profit) of their product. Based off this document this is part of their long term strategy. You may quibble about the specifics but extracting money from their customers over time is cooked into their model and that does seem worth noting...
- chrisseaton 5y agoSome subscriptions say they own the product, but they cover any and all problems with the product and they'll service it and replace it and upgrade it etc. Other subscriptions say they own the product.... but nothing and you can't do anything either. That's the difference between the two.
- mrgordon 5y agoTesla is also focused on subscription services (more and more over time). I haven't heard much negative sentiment about them using the model other than from people who don't think certain features (notably self driving) are complete enough to sell.
- purple_ferret 5y agoWhy go public with no revenue whatsoever? Unable to raise money privately?
- nixgeek 5y agoFrom the S-1 they have a fair amount of cash on hand and substantial borrowing facilities which are currently unused. They’re clearly able to raise funds privately.
- fierro 5y agoneed to pass the bag to someone else. Not buying into another cult of personality. >We are highly dependent on the services and reputation of Robert J. Scaringe, our Founder and Chief Executive Officer.
- maytc 5y agoAnd Rivian is paying Scaringe for his services at 1.3MM a year. Crazy for a company with no reported revenue
- thrill 5y agoGoing public is as much about timing as it is about capital. There's also lots of investment opportunities that open up with funds and pensions that are limited to only investing in publicly traded companies.
- postingawayonhn 5y agoThey've already raised $10.5b privately. The private valuation is now up to something like $50b so the next logical step is an IPO where they will raise $5b+.
- jonstewart 5y agoNot sure whether it’s applicable to Rivian, but the SEC has requirements about going public once a company has a certain number of investors. Rivian’s starting to ship their trucks, and initial reviews seem very positive, so it could also be good timing for them.
- TradingPlaces 5y agoMost interesting tidbit: We expect that a significant portion of our initial revenue will be from one customer that is an affiliate of one of our principal stockholders. If we are unable to maintain this relationship, or if this customer purchases significantly fewer vehicles than we currently anticipate or none at all, our business, prospects, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows could be materially and adversely affected. To date, we have generated minimal revenue from the initial sales of our R1T vehicles and have not generated any revenue from the sales of our other vehicles. Our future success depends on us commencing commercial sales and attracting a large number of customers for our vehicles. In the near-term, however, we expect that a significant portion of our revenue will be from Amazon Logistics, Inc. (“Logistics”). Amazon is the parent company of both Logistics and Amazon.com NV Investment Holdings LLC (“NV Holdings”), which owns approximately % of our voting power as of , 2021. In February 2019, we entered into a commercial letter agreement with Amazon, and in September 2019, we entered into a related framework agreement with Logistics. We refer to these agreements, together with any work orders, purchase orders, related agreements and amendments thereunder or thereto, collectively, as the “EDV Agreement.” Under the EDV Agreement, we and Logistics have agreed to collaborate to design, develop, manufacture, and supply EDVs and/or certain component parts and related services for use in Amazon’s last mile delivery operations. We also have agreed under the EDV Agreement that until the fourth anniversary of when Logistics first receives EDVs (the “Initial Delivery Date”), whether or not Logistics purchases any EDVs from us, we will exclusively provide last mile delivery vehicles to Amazon, and from the fourth anniversary to the sixth anniversary of the Initial Delivery Date, Amazon will have a right of first refusal to purchase last mile delivery vehicles that we produce. Under the EDV Agreement, Logistics has the right to decide how many EDVs to purchase, which may be fewer than expected, or delay the delivery of such purchases. Certain factors outside of our control may influence Logistics’ decision as to the number of EDVs to purchase from us and the timing of delivery, including Logistics’ ability to deploy a charging infrastructure across their delivery stations.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- lvs 5y agoTough to value given it's effectively an options contract.
- rvz 5y agoIt's getting a bit crowed in the EV market-space and some EV makers like Rivian need to do more than their competitors otherwise they will end up being yet another EV maker, which now is not enough. The Amazon fleet partnership is very positive and several other deals in Europe too. However, Rivian just needs other ways to utilise its technology just like what NIO is currently doing in China. If Rivian follows that path and avoids being just a generic EV maker, then its stock is a straight buy in my books but I would hold for now and see what the competitors (especially Lucid Motors) are also doing first in October.
- seattle_spring 5y agoRivian doesn't strike me as "just another EV maker" at all. Their products are focused on utility and sports, not mall parking lots or straight-line speed.
- larrywright 5y agoAlso Amazon Prime delivery trucks - their largest customer currently.
- mrgordon 5y agoYes Lucid Motors is at half the valuation and doesn't rely on only one customer who may not purchase any vehicles. I think this IPO will not go super well due to the valuation and Lucid will ultimately benefit from the attention. I'm surprised they didn't price a bit lower so they could guarantee a first day pop. At this price, many of the people I know who have loved Rivian for years will not be buyers. I'll be curious if there are enough others to support the valuation. I believe it will be the second most valuable car company after Tesla?
- wandering_rhino 5y agojust curious . what is lucid doing unique. they seem to be a straight copy of Tesla. any company going public through SPAC kind of indicates they just want to cash out on the current craze and may not offer long term value.
- epa 5y ago$3B cash on hand and spending $1B per year. They will raise $5B runway.
- worldmerge 5y agoIs there an rss feed out there to know when they go public on Fidelity?
- quickthrowman 5y agoThe IPO date will be known in advance. You need a decent sized account to subscribe to IPOs on Fidelity: https://www.fidelity.com/stock-trading/ipos https://www.fidelity.com/stock-trading/ipos I assume searching the web for “us ipo RSS feed” will answer your RSS feed question.
- chrischen 5y agoIf you want to see a Rivian being used you can watch Long Way Up on Netflix with Ewan Mcgregor.
- davidcollantes 5y agoI have to add that the “Long Way Up” team drove prototypes, which suffered from many problems. Hopefully they have solved many—if not all—of them.
- postingawayonhn 5y agoI don't recall 'many problems'? The only significant thing I can remember is a brake locking up.
- bink 5y agoThe only problem I remember was damage to the hydraulic suspension when the truck rolled backwards into a rock. I don't believe they ever explained if that was due to driver error or mechanical failure, but the absence of an explanation led me to believe it was probably the latter. They weren't shy about pointing out driver error in other situations. A bigger issue for me was the fact that the trucks completely disappeared when they hit (IIRC) Central America. They loaded the bikes into a bus and drove them across Mexico (which didn't speak well of the Harleys either). All that said I still reserved one.
- adreamingsoul 5y agoI remember the reasoning of using the bus through Central America was to not attract attention.
- jdminhbg 5y agoWell, they definitely weren't going to be driving them across the Darien Gap.
- josteink 5y ago
- bearcobra 5y agoSeveral YouTubers got to participate in a press event recently, and I found many of their first impressions to be quiet interesting. I’m trying to talk my wife into letting me put in a pre-order
- bognition 5y agoAny videos you could link to? Or any specific insights worth sharing?
- wandering_rhino 5y agohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tpBMld6U9B0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tpBMld6U9B0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KS1HdnKG0YY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KS1HdnKG0YY
- bearcobra 5y agoThe SnazzyLabs was interesting to me, particularly because of Quinn’s experience as a Tesla owner and the flack he got about excusing their build quality. https://youtu.be/KS1HdnKG0YY https://youtu.be/KS1HdnKG0YY Ben Sullins also had a video I enjoyed https://youtu.be/4nge_JzJSUc https://youtu.be/4nge_JzJSUc
- mrgordon 5y agoThis is the last of the big three EV startups to go public. Lucid Motors (cars), Proterra (buses) and now Rivian (trucks). The valuation seems too high but they have a lot of momentum and enthusiasts behind them so I imagine there will be many buyers. I believe it will likely bring renewed focus on other EV makers especially Lucid who is somewhat in the same niche.
- ryanburk 5y agois there a reason why a large % of the board turned over in the past ~year, leading in to an IPO? > Ms. Ford English was appointed to our board of directors in May 2020 and stepped down from our board of directors in May 2021. > Mr. Hinrichs stepped down from our board of directors in May 2020. > Mr. Jameel stepped down from our board of directors in July 2021. > Mr. Kaul stepped down from our board of directors in July 2021. > Mr. Sheriff stepped down from our board of directors in May 2021.
- cowsandmilk 5y agoThose in 2021 stepped down because they aren’t independent board members as needed for the IPO. In May 2020, Ford English replaced Hinrich as Ford’s representative on the board because Hinrich left Ford.
- nbzso 5y agoI like this truck exterior design. If they "grow up" and remove touch based centrist UX (Thank you, Elon - you saved a lot of money and ruin decades of car UX) this will sell very good numbers in the EU. Recently I moved out of the city towards rural life and this type of vehicle will give me all I need, including good cornering for fun (due to mix of air/hydraulic suspension). Definitely looking forward to purchase (may be second gen) EV truck. For the American market they will face serious competition from Ford and other truck manufacturers who have brand recognition and solid fan base.
- oxplot 5y ago> Thank you, Elon - you saved a lot of money and ruin decades of car UX The motivation behind a single touchscreen (from the horse’s mouth) is the gradual move to full self driving. Given that all Teslas are capable of fully autonomous driving, pending software, it doesn’t make sense to pollute the car interior with controls that will become obsolete during the lifetime of the car, not even accounting for extra cost associated with manufacturing dozens/hundreds of extra parts. Now if others are copying it without understanding why it’s done that way, it’s on them.
- mdorazio 5y ago> Given that all Teslas are capable of fully autonomous driving, pending software They are not. Please stop propagating this falsehood.
- oxplot 5y agoThey are, and it's true, even TODAY, and I'm going to repeat it every chance I get, because I've learnt that it takes repetition to correct misunderstanding and ignorance! Just go on youtube and search for FSD Beta 10. Yes, it makes mistakes, and yes it has a long way before you can sleep at the wheel but it's doing door to door driving today across the entire US, like no other car even comes close to doing.
- ra7 5y ago
- redconfetti 5y agoHow practical is an electric sports utility vehicle? I almost ran out of gas just going up into logging territory in northern California, I couldn't imagine going in an electric vehicle with less range.
- qaq 5y agowell given the number of preorders for F-150 Lightening, Cybertruck and Rivian it's practical for many
- jillesvangurp 5y agoSounds pretty practical to me. Plenty of torque, plenty of range. Can definitely handle rough terrain. Awesome for camping out in the middle of nowhere. Etc. And you can plug into any wall socket to charge up. Journeys into remote areas would require a bit of planning as to where, when and how to charge. But that's not that different from driving a petrol car. If you run out of petrol in the middle of nowhere, it's just as bad as running out of battery because you are stuck in the middle of nowhere with no easy way to fix it. The difference is that an electric car will tell you how much range it has and is pretty accurate about it and be able to guide you to the nearest charging point. But if you insist on draining the tank or battery until there's nothing left before you top up, then yes, you are going to be taking a risk. Simple suggestion: try not to do that. If the absolute worst happens and you ignore all the warnings the car gives you, the solution would be to charge the battery. For example from another EV (some models actually support this). By driving up to somebody's house and begging for permission to plug in. Etc. Absolute worst case is you'll be towed away by somebody shaking their heads to a place where the car can be plugged in. People would be shaking their head because it would be your own fault. Now some people have a genuine need for hundreds of miles of range because where they are going there is nothing. The good news is you can fix that. Put up some solar panels, truck in some batteries, etc. Easy to do. I imagine, many logging operations will end up doing exactly that sort of thing.
- HeyLaughingBoy 5y ago> But that's not that different from driving a petrol car Of course it is! I can go pretty much anywhere in the CONUS and not have to worry about running out of gas because gas stations are everywhere. In the few cases where they aren't, there are usually clear indications, e.g., "next gas station 50 miles ahead" signs. Or if I'm that concerned, I can take a 5 gallon can full of gas with me. > you are stuck in the middle of nowhere with no easy way to fix it I've stopped to give people rides to the gas station (where you can rent/borrow a gas can) when they ran out. Probably won't be feasible with electric for quite some time. Sure, people should plan their trips, but please don't make a false equivalence between gas & electric in this regard.
- sydthrowaway 5y agoWhats the correct strategy to buy? Buy after it pops?
- kristopolous 5y agoWhat do you believe about the company in say 5 weeks/months/years... Invest according to those beliefs. I know that's let's concrete but it's real.
- LinuxBender 5y agoI was talking to a UPS driver the other day about EV's. They are very concerned about how these vehicles will perform in my neck of the woods. About a third of the year it is well below freezing here. As is the ICE UPS trucks have difficulty in the snow. The drivers are concerned that the problems will be compounded by cold batteries and having to charge them constantly given that Tesla's don't do well here at all and have to be charged often. My concerns about this are entirely selfish of course. If I bought a bed locally it would have been about $3k. The same bed on Amazon was $700 including mattress and frame. I buy locally when it makes sense and what I want is available but sometimes it just doesn't make sense. Amazon only uses UPS here.
- culopatin 5y agoIt’s only a matter of time before they figure something out for this. Right now companies are concerned about at least having a product. Once they feel comfortable and they have a solid flow of cash and products I’m sure they’ll focus on these details. It could be something like different cooling system that is very well isolated from the outside world and can maintain a controlled internal climate with little power or whatever. I have faith in that it’s a fixable issue that requires just a bit of time. Initially they might have to do heavier vehicles or change fleets half way through the day or something like that. Or have a small ICE to extend range
- windowsrookie 5y agoPeople have this extreme sceptisism towards electric vehicles for some reason. They have been out for many years now and have performed just fine in cold weather. Yes, they have a reduced range, that can be solved with a larger battery. I could also imagine design where a small gas/diesel engine provides heat for the batteries and interior cabin of the vehicle, leaving the batteries to power the drivetrain entirely.
- LinuxBender 5y agoIn fairness the UPS drivers skepticism is well founded and possibly reflecting back on them in the form of karma and Murphy's law. They poke fun at the Tesla drivers that often get stuck on the side of the road from dead batteries. I find this fascinating as I understood the cars could tell you that you won't make it to {destination} on the current charge. A hybrid solution does sound like a great idea. Are Rivian planning on doing this?
- inferense 5y ago7500 employees, raised $10.5B, filing for an IPO with a valuation that would place them as 6th most valuable car manufacturer - 0 vehicles sold.. this doesn’t seem right. Some would call this a scam, for some its a bubble, but it’s definitely out of any reasonable bounds of how the game should be played.
- siruncledrew 5y agoIt just doesn’t make any sense in the context that the stock market is supposed to be efficient. This kind of “going public” setup seems ridiculous. It’s like there’s a room behind the curtain with some kind of money laundering or backhanded deals being brokered and the company itself is just a ‘front’ to look busy.
- lastofthemojito 5y agoThe stock market is theoretically supposed to be efficient, but these days plenty of individual investors are about "the mission" of companies like Tesla, throwing money at shares regardless of any fundamental analysis. I'd imagine Rivian will attract plenty of similar investors, and it'd be kind of silly for Rivian not to take advantage of that opportunity to raise easy money.
- ianai 5y agoAgree. There’s so much money floating around that companies can be brought public with essentially all future possible growth priced into the offering at a very high success. It’s as though everyone assumes every bet is going to come out the most profitable way. No room for error nor even learning process in the valuation.
- l33tbro 5y agoWhy do you think it is? I feel like investors are pretty smart and surely understand that these companies are not worth all this. I see what you mean about money floating around. But does it ever reach a point where there is a common sense counter-weight that maybe the latest pets.com is not worth the GDP of a small country.
- aabajian 5y agoThe stock market has always been a bit of a mystery to me. There is no requirement that company revenue be tied to a stock's value. Rather, the stock for a given company is entirely based on human sentiment. Person A buys stock S at time t0 because he thinks it will be more valuable to person B at time t1. Person B buys stock S at time t1 because he thinks it will be more valuable to person C at time t2. ...and so on. Buying a small-volume of stock in company X provides no tangible value. You aren't getting a seat on the board with a few thousand dollars. Obviously, things like dividends and retirement tax-breaks have value, but I'm talking about pure speculative investing. My question to the investors out there: Why should be there be a person C or D who buys the stock from you in the future? In the extreme case, you could buy stock X, and then never find someone to buy it from you.
- peripitea 5y agoA public company's value is based on a collective estimate of what people think its cashflows will look like in the future. For a mature company that you don't expect to change much, looking at present financials is a solid way to estimate future financials. For an earlier-stage, or more speculative company like Rivian with a wide range of possibilities in its future, current financials are not typically helpful, with a few exceptions (e.g. growth indicators, signs of poor management). For example: Five years ago, I thought Tesla had a 30% chance of failing, 20% chance of being bought by a major auto manufacturer (for let's say ~30B), 30% chance of turning into a major auto manufacturer (est value ~100B), 10% chance of turning into the top auto manufacturer (est value ~300B), and 10% chance of turning into something that transcended auto manufacturing (est value ~1T). If you multiply this out, you get an expected value of 0+6+30+30+100 = 166B. At the time the market cap was around 40B, so I thought it was underpriced and bought some. Obviously I'm glossing over some things, but it's sensible enough and should illustrate how you can get there. In terms of the notion of "what if you never find someone to buy it from you?" The short answer is that that's extremely unlikely. The longer answer is that you can also just price that into your probability distribution, but because of the low likelihood it's unlikely to affect your price much. FWIW I don't know much about Rivian, but my sense is also that they are overpriced. You could go through the same little exercise above for Rivian and see if you agree. To summarize what my distribution would look like, I think they have a much higher chance of failure than Tesla in my example above (because they're much less far along), and not enough potential upside to justify the valuations being discussed. But I could easily be wrong.