6 ms·

@kliment summarized the why pretty well: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26931498 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26931498 Curious if this is true f

@kliment summarized the why pretty well: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26931498 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26931498 Curious if this is true for all manufacturers.

intricatedetail 5y ago
What would cause pretty much all STM32 microcontrollers to be not available and any amount that shows up disappears within minutes? Then you can buy pretty much any part from China without issue?
- baybal2 5y ago
  Chinese people stopped hoarding luxury apartments, and started hoarding microchips — a popular explanation
  - a9h74j 5y ago
    > a popular explanation When I was a kid, the urban legend question was: What if all of the Chinese jumped off a platform at the same time? Would it shake the other side of the world?
    - MetallicCloud 5y ago
      One of my favourite what ifs https://what-if.xkcd.com/8/ https://what-if.xkcd.com/8/
      - a9h74j 5y ago
        Great!... So Build Back Better?
- Inviz 5y ago
  STM32s from China increased 3 to 5 times in price in last 6 months, biggest jump happened in last 6 weeks. STM32L family is especially hard to buy.
isoprophlex 5y ago
What an amazing comment; penetrating insight clearly communicated. Thanks for sharing.
da_chicken 5y ago
The "religious reasons" he's talking about are "zero inventory" or "JIT inventory" pioneered by Japanese auto makers in the 80s and 90s. By optimizing inventory management and understanding demand for your product, you can ensure you don't have excess inventory on-site (meaning you don't have money invested in product parts you can't sell and have to pay taxes on). It's the system that virtually every manufacturer (auto or otherwise) uses now. It's why major supply chain issues cause catastrophic manufacturing problems.
- j-bos 5y ago
  My understanding is that JIT, as performed by Toyota, takes into account the differences in difficulty of sourcing different inventories. If this is true, one would expect that Toyota faced shortages later than other manufacturers. Does anyone have a source proving or disproving this?
  - hef19898 5y ago
    Toyota was among the last to be hit. Also, JIT is not having zero inventory. It is about having the right amount of inventory.
    - worldsayshi 5y ago
      Pedantic comment: is that not what lean is about? Or is "lean" and jit essentially the same thing?
      - hef19898 5y ago
        JIT, as Kanban, is part of the Toyota Production System. It is also called Lean nowadays, or simply TPS. The basic principles go back to the US defence industry in WW2, on one hand, and some ingenious ideas from the old Toyota company manufacturing looms. I also see some of these ideas, tacted assembly lines for example, as far back the Venetian Arsenal cranking out Galleons and Galleasses in unprecedented numbers in the 16th (?) century.
    - 5y ago
ladyattis 5y ago
I know that even SMD transistors got hit hard by the automaker component switch-a-roo. It's not too easy to find RF transistors even for signal amp work like I do for a hobby. It's just a disaster right now.
lvl100 5y ago
This is not true at all. How many chips do you think the car industry needs for car parts? How many cars do you think they sell in a year? It’s not hard to figure it out. People parroting this narrative have no idea what’s happening behind the scene.
- mendigou 5y ago
  Most of us affected think it's very true. There are 60-70 million cars sold worldwide each year and many chips of different kinds in each. If you have some deeper insight it'd be great to share it.
  - lvl100 5y ago
    What we are seeing is basically hoarding across the board and pandemic-induced manufacturing disruptions. And suppliers are going along with it because they make substantially more profit in this situation. This notion that car manufacturers are responsible for halting the entire world for chips is simply a narrative to hide what’s really happening. Even if car mfgs cut production due to pandemic miscalculations, that’s at best 5-10%. That alone is not enough to shut down factories. And we are more than one full cycle out of the pandemic. We are still talking about a supply chain that was state of the art. If you think they didn’t adjust (to some 10M unit miscalculation) by now, I don’t think you should be writing articles on this topic.
    - mendigou 5y ago
      Nothing new here. We are all stockpiling components because we have no idea what the market will look like in the coming months, and that is causing further market distortions. However, one of the largest triggers for this madness was the miscalculation by the car industry that had an effect on a large portion of chip factories. Even the comment linked in the parent acknowledges that it's not all about car manufacturing, it's the ensuing madness (that they caused in large part) that is making it worse. Your comment clashes directly with the reality of multiple car plants closing or slowing down considerably due to the shortage.

@kliment summarized the why pretty well: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26931498 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26931498 Curious if this is true for all manufacturers.

intricatedetail 5y ago

What would cause pretty much all STM32 microcontrollers to be not available and any amount that shows up disappears within minutes? Then you can buy pretty much any part from China without issue?

baybal2 5y ago
Chinese people stopped hoarding luxury apartments, and started hoarding microchips — a popular explanation
- a9h74j 5y ago
  > a popular explanation When I was a kid, the urban legend question was: What if all of the Chinese jumped off a platform at the same time? Would it shake the other side of the world?
  - MetallicCloud 5y ago
    One of my favourite what ifs https://what-if.xkcd.com/8/ https://what-if.xkcd.com/8/
    - a9h74j 5y ago
      Great!... So Build Back Better?
Inviz 5y ago
STM32s from China increased 3 to 5 times in price in last 6 months, biggest jump happened in last 6 weeks. STM32L family is especially hard to buy.

isoprophlex 5y ago

What an amazing comment; penetrating insight clearly communicated. Thanks for sharing.

da_chicken 5y ago

The "religious reasons" he's talking about are "zero inventory" or "JIT inventory" pioneered by Japanese auto makers in the 80s and 90s. By optimizing inventory management and understanding demand for your product, you can ensure you don't have excess inventory on-site (meaning you don't have money invested in product parts you can't sell and have to pay taxes on). It's the system that virtually every manufacturer (auto or otherwise) uses now. It's why major supply chain issues cause catastrophic manufacturing problems.

j-bos 5y ago
My understanding is that JIT, as performed by Toyota, takes into account the differences in difficulty of sourcing different inventories. If this is true, one would expect that Toyota faced shortages later than other manufacturers. Does anyone have a source proving or disproving this?
- hef19898 5y ago
  Toyota was among the last to be hit. Also, JIT is not having zero inventory. It is about having the right amount of inventory.
  - worldsayshi 5y ago
    Pedantic comment: is that not what lean is about? Or is "lean" and jit essentially the same thing?
    - hef19898 5y ago
      JIT, as Kanban, is part of the Toyota Production System. It is also called Lean nowadays, or simply TPS. The basic principles go back to the US defence industry in WW2, on one hand, and some ingenious ideas from the old Toyota company manufacturing looms. I also see some of these ideas, tacted assembly lines for example, as far back the Venetian Arsenal cranking out Galleons and Galleasses in unprecedented numbers in the 16th (?) century.
  - 5y ago

ladyattis 5y ago

I know that even SMD transistors got hit hard by the automaker component switch-a-roo. It's not too easy to find RF transistors even for signal amp work like I do for a hobby. It's just a disaster right now.

lvl100 5y ago

This is not true at all. How many chips do you think the car industry needs for car parts? How many cars do you think they sell in a year? It’s not hard to figure it out. People parroting this narrative have no idea what’s happening behind the scene.

mendigou 5y ago
Most of us affected think it's very true. There are 60-70 million cars sold worldwide each year and many chips of different kinds in each. If you have some deeper insight it'd be great to share it.
- lvl100 5y ago
  What we are seeing is basically hoarding across the board and pandemic-induced manufacturing disruptions. And suppliers are going along with it because they make substantially more profit in this situation. This notion that car manufacturers are responsible for halting the entire world for chips is simply a narrative to hide what’s really happening. Even if car mfgs cut production due to pandemic miscalculations, that’s at best 5-10%. That alone is not enough to shut down factories. And we are more than one full cycle out of the pandemic. We are still talking about a supply chain that was state of the art. If you think they didn’t adjust (to some 10M unit miscalculation) by now, I don’t think you should be writing articles on this topic.
  - mendigou 5y ago
    Nothing new here. We are all stockpiling components because we have no idea what the market will look like in the coming months, and that is causing further market distortions. However, one of the largest triggers for this madness was the miscalculation by the car industry that had an effect on a large portion of chip factories. Even the comment linked in the parent acknowledges that it's not all about car manufacturing, it's the ensuing madness (that they caused in large part) that is making it worse. Your comment clashes directly with the reality of multiple car plants closing or slowing down considerably due to the shortage.