10 ms·

So what is exactly wrong with some Russian influence? As a Dutchie I am continously influenced by Americans, Germans, Frenchmen etc.

BurningFrog 5y ago
Russia controlling much of your energy supply that they can turn off at will gives them power over you. Very different from choosing to watch American movies or cooking French food.
- the-dude 5y ago
  They can only do this one time. AFAIK they do not have a history of doing this, only when terms of actual gas deals are not met. Which is common business sense. edit: you are downplaying US influence. Are you aware The Netherlands is a host for US nuclear weapons?
  - datameta 5y ago
    They used natural gas as a political lever with Ukraine on a constant basis. The same would be the case with Belarussia if they weren't forcefully aligned as political allies (an attempt at which is one of the main reasons of the Ukrainian invasion).
    - the-dude 5y ago
      Do you have sources Russia used this lever even though all terms of the deal were met? ( basically, the bills were paid ).
      - datameta 5y ago
        The gas bills had a strange ability to grow of their own accord, almost seemingly to the whims of the natural gas supplier. On several occasions Russia cut off supply during winter after disputes, which affected not only Ukraine but Europe. This was a two pronged maneuver which was meant to sour Europe-Ukraine relations and keep Ukraine dependent on Russia. Ukraine's attempted aligment with Europe is perhaps the main driver of the 2014 invasion of Ukraine by Russia.
        the-dude 5y ago
        So you have no sources I presume? And the bills were not paid.
        nameme274728 5y ago
        (the) dude, relax please, we know you're either a likely Russian state-paid actor hired to sow doubt or severely misinformed
        anticodon 5y ago
        the main driver of the 2014 invasion of Ukraine by Russia There was no Russian invasion. There was a coup and installation of Nazi government in Ukraine in 2014. Big percent of population in Ukraine is Russian. They do not want to live under Nazi regime that praises Hitler and forbids to speak Russian language. Also, Ukraine has plans to build concentration camps for Russian population. So they decided to leave Ukraine and join Russia.
        throwaway894345 5y ago
        This is counterfactual, overt propaganda. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War#2014_annexation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War#2014_annex...
        anticodon 5y ago
        Since when Wikipedia has become a source of truth? Well, mate, do you read Russian or Ukrainian? How can you tell me that it is a lie? It is forbidden to speak Russian in Ukraine, because it's an actual Ukrainian law. The law, you know, that was made by Ukrainian government and it is effective and people are fined by the police. Also, Ukraine forbids Russian websites, Russian TV and even burns books in Russian. Please, you know it all (as all westerners): prove that use of Russian is not forbidden in Ukraine. Please, prove that Hitler and nazism is not honored in Ukraine on the government level. There's a yearly parade of SS veterans in Kiev. Every year in the open - everyone can see it!
    - LargoLasskhyfv 5y ago
      Some bitch wanted to get rich. Played with the mafia, been a puppet for another player. Abused her position. Vendor of warez blocked even more corruption. Bitch shrieked in frustration. Another player saw his chance. Vendor of warez had enough of the pranks. Disruption... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yulia_Tymoshenko https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yulia_Tymoshenko also see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Otpor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Otpor
    - Mikeb85 5y ago
      Let's not pretend there was no fuckery on the Ukrainian side. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_gas_disputes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_gas_dis...
      - throwaway894345 5y ago
        That’s not really the point—the point is that Russia has been observed using its natural gas as political leverage.
    - anticodon 5y ago
      Russia is not obliged to pay Ukrainian bills. They're unreliable partners (both for EU and Russia), they have a history of blackmailing EU with threats to stop gas transit (Ukraine, not Russia threatened EU!), they're stealing transit gas all the time. Besides, they're used as an enemy, as cannon fodder against Russia. Why would Russia feed them using our natural resources? What's our obligation? It's not their gas, it's not their pipeline (it was built by "soviet occupants").
- throwaway894345 5y ago
  Moreover, we’re not talking about the Russian people, we’re talking about Russia, the dictatorship. The US isn’t assassinating dissidents in EU countries, after all. It’s also not installing dictators in your neighboring countries.
  - the-dude 5y ago
    You must be joking. The US assassinates people almost on a daily basis, has installed dictators in numerous countries and Russia is not a dictatorship, how much you disagree with Putin. Futhermore, the US has been involved or started numerous conflicts in the EU backyard, which we are forced to cooperate in, and have no choice to take care of the refugees.
    - throwaway894345 5y ago
      The US assassinates terrorists (and not remotely on “a daily basis” although the US assassination attempts have too much collateral damage). Russia assassinates dissidents (critics of Putin and his regime) on EU soil. Russia is absolutely a dictatorship. They just rigged their most recent election (jailed the leading rival politician and banned apps that informed people on how to use their vote strategically to minimize Putin’s party’s power).
      - 988747 5y ago
        America labels its critics as "terrorist" and critics of Russia as "dissidents". Russia of course does the exact opposite. As for "rigged elections" all the US elections in the last 50 years were rigged as well - think about gerrymandering and deliberately blocking black and Latino minorities from voting (by making it hard for them to obtain proof of identity, or making them wait hours in line at the polling stations).
        throwaway894345 5y ago
        > America labels its critics as "terrorist" and critics of Russia as "dissidents". Russia of course does the exact opposite. "Dissident" is just a critic of a policy or regime. It doesn't improve Russia's hand at all to say that it only assassinates critics, and it certainly isn't an exclusively US-held position that Alexander Litvinenko, Boris Nemtsov, Alexei Navalny, etc were critics (as opposed to bonafide violent terrorists). As for "America labels its critics as 'terrorists'": can you name any critics that the US labeled "terrorists" and consequently assassinated, especially on EU soil?
- interactivecode 5y ago
  The same issues apply to American control over European power supplies or Norwegian control over European power supplies. They aren't anymore dangerous for Europe. The main difference is our existing trade deals with the US are more embedded into the European economy than any of the other countries. We like the US now, they are our friends, but because they are more connected, we are more reliant on them than others, which is dangerous in and of itself.
  - BBC-vs-neolibs 5y ago
    Yeah, bring that argument when Norway occupies the Crimean peninsula.
  - smnrchrds 5y ago
    We Canadians felt this deeply when US kept all their domestically-produced vaccine doses for themselves in early 2021. We had grown accustomed to the flow of goods and services between US and Canada being uninterrupted. So for many of us, it was a shock and a disappointment when the US decided to turn off the tap.
    - throwaway894345 5y ago
      Honestly, I don't know why this would be so surprising. You're comparing the flow of goods in a stable supply chain with the unprecedented demand for a novel vaccine for which no existing supply chain existed. Of course there wouldn't be a ready flow of vaccine immediately, and of course every country prioritizes its own citizens first and foremost. Now that demand has eased considerably, the US is now donating more doses of vaccine than all of the other countries on the planet combined.
      - adventured 5y ago
        You're being downvoted because you're not allowed to point out on HN that the US is donating more vaccine doses than the rest of the world combined. Just like the US donates as much food to the rest of the world as all other nations combined and has been doing it for a century now. US bad.
- inglor_cz 5y ago
  As much as I am wary about Russian influence (we were under their yoke 1948-1989, with an outright invasion in 1968), Gazprom never fooled around with gas deliveries into Western Europe. They know that they need to maintain spotless business reputation, precisely because Europe is already on the fence re doing any business with Russia at all and because gas exports are the most reliable source of hard currency for Russia. Turning gas off is a nuclear option for Kremlin. Not unthinkable, but very extreme.
  - londons_explore 5y ago
    It's also pretty easy to build storage facilities so they have to turn the gas off for a long time before the effects are felt. Storage of LPG for an entire winters use by a country isn't super expensive.
    - inglor_cz 5y ago
      Technically yes, NIMBYs might be a problem.
    - makomk 5y ago
      As far as I can tell, Europe has storage facilities but they let Gazprom run a lot of them and for some reason Gazprom has let them run down rather than refilling them like they usually would over the summer...
      - Sebb767 5y ago
        A theory I heard was that all the gas was bought up by speculators (that seems true, actually) and now they're slowly delivering the gas as needed to avoid speculators eating all the cheap gas up and then blaming Gazprom once no gas is left for the winter.
  - glogla 5y ago
    It's not just the risk of the strategically turning it off. It's also creating a dependence and giving Putin money. Those are bad by themselves.
- Aunche 5y ago
  The irony here is that the US is the one pressuring the EU to sanction the Nord 2 pipeline. They have little to lose from its suspension. Russia is unlikely to willingly cut off gas to Western Europe because they're hurting themselves just as much.
  - adventured 5y ago
    The US does have something to lose. The US is now a large natural gas exporter, and that demand pulls away from our domestic market, which forces our prices higher. When European natural gas prices are 4x-5x that of the US, the foreign demand for cheaper US imports can become a frenzy. While US prices may seem cheap by comparison to what Europe is seeing, when you triple those prices versus a year ago, US consumers feel that hit significantly (with many population centers in the US having quite cold Winter weather, expectations right now are for a quite expensive Winter season in the US for natural gas prices). And the US has also become a lot more dependent on natural gas as an energy source over the last 15-20 years, so it's increasingly sensitive to such large price spikes; far more so than back in the commodity bubble years of 2005-2008 which saw US natural gas prices climb to about 3x where they're at now (before the supply boom in the US crushed prices). If natural gas prices in the US keep soaring, you can expect the Biden Administration to look into turning off exports via whatever justification they can come up with to make it happen.
- dragonelite 5y ago
  Not much different from other sources, Europe is not resource/energy rich like the US.
  - throwaway894345 5y ago
    A polity which is not energy rich should have a diverse energy portfolio so one country doesn't have too much power. As it stands, 40% of European natural gas comes from Russia and virtually none from the US. Investing more in Russia gives Russia tremendous power over Europe. Diluting that investment with natural gas from the US or some other suppliers means that Europe can afford to walk away from any deal with any of them at small cost to itself. Further still, divesting itself of nuclear also worsens EU energy security, because nuclear doesn't require a pipeline from anywhere (yes, you have to import Uranium, but its very cheap to import per unit energy, even at its current elevated price point).

BurningFrog 5y ago

Russia controlling much of your energy supply that they can turn off at will gives them power over you. Very different from choosing to watch American movies or cooking French food.

the-dude 5y ago
They can only do this one time. AFAIK they do not have a history of doing this, only when terms of actual gas deals are not met. Which is common business sense. edit: you are downplaying US influence. Are you aware The Netherlands is a host for US nuclear weapons?
- datameta 5y ago
  They used natural gas as a political lever with Ukraine on a constant basis. The same would be the case with Belarussia if they weren't forcefully aligned as political allies (an attempt at which is one of the main reasons of the Ukrainian invasion).
  - the-dude 5y ago
    Do you have sources Russia used this lever even though all terms of the deal were met? ( basically, the bills were paid ).
    - datameta 5y ago
      The gas bills had a strange ability to grow of their own accord, almost seemingly to the whims of the natural gas supplier. On several occasions Russia cut off supply during winter after disputes, which affected not only Ukraine but Europe. This was a two pronged maneuver which was meant to sour Europe-Ukraine relations and keep Ukraine dependent on Russia. Ukraine's attempted aligment with Europe is perhaps the main driver of the 2014 invasion of Ukraine by Russia.
      - the-dude 5y ago
        So you have no sources I presume? And the bills were not paid.
        nameme274728 5y ago
        (the) dude, relax please, we know you're either a likely Russian state-paid actor hired to sow doubt or severely misinformed
      - anticodon 5y ago
        the main driver of the 2014 invasion of Ukraine by Russia There was no Russian invasion. There was a coup and installation of Nazi government in Ukraine in 2014. Big percent of population in Ukraine is Russian. They do not want to live under Nazi regime that praises Hitler and forbids to speak Russian language. Also, Ukraine has plans to build concentration camps for Russian population. So they decided to leave Ukraine and join Russia.
        throwaway894345 5y ago
        This is counterfactual, overt propaganda. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War#2014_annexation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War#2014_annex...
        anticodon 5y ago
        Since when Wikipedia has become a source of truth? Well, mate, do you read Russian or Ukrainian? How can you tell me that it is a lie? It is forbidden to speak Russian in Ukraine, because it's an actual Ukrainian law. The law, you know, that was made by Ukrainian government and it is effective and people are fined by the police. Also, Ukraine forbids Russian websites, Russian TV and even burns books in Russian. Please, you know it all (as all westerners): prove that use of Russian is not forbidden in Ukraine. Please, prove that Hitler and nazism is not honored in Ukraine on the government level. There's a yearly parade of SS veterans in Kiev. Every year in the open - everyone can see it!
  - LargoLasskhyfv 5y ago
    Some bitch wanted to get rich. Played with the mafia, been a puppet for another player. Abused her position. Vendor of warez blocked even more corruption. Bitch shrieked in frustration. Another player saw his chance. Vendor of warez had enough of the pranks. Disruption... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yulia_Tymoshenko https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yulia_Tymoshenko also see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Otpor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Otpor
  - Mikeb85 5y ago
    Let's not pretend there was no fuckery on the Ukrainian side. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_gas_disputes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_gas_dis...
    - throwaway894345 5y ago
      That’s not really the point—the point is that Russia has been observed using its natural gas as political leverage.
  - anticodon 5y ago
    Russia is not obliged to pay Ukrainian bills. They're unreliable partners (both for EU and Russia), they have a history of blackmailing EU with threats to stop gas transit (Ukraine, not Russia threatened EU!), they're stealing transit gas all the time. Besides, they're used as an enemy, as cannon fodder against Russia. Why would Russia feed them using our natural resources? What's our obligation? It's not their gas, it's not their pipeline (it was built by "soviet occupants").
throwaway894345 5y ago
Moreover, we’re not talking about the Russian people, we’re talking about Russia, the dictatorship. The US isn’t assassinating dissidents in EU countries, after all. It’s also not installing dictators in your neighboring countries.
- the-dude 5y ago
  You must be joking. The US assassinates people almost on a daily basis, has installed dictators in numerous countries and Russia is not a dictatorship, how much you disagree with Putin. Futhermore, the US has been involved or started numerous conflicts in the EU backyard, which we are forced to cooperate in, and have no choice to take care of the refugees.
  - throwaway894345 5y ago
    The US assassinates terrorists (and not remotely on “a daily basis” although the US assassination attempts have too much collateral damage). Russia assassinates dissidents (critics of Putin and his regime) on EU soil. Russia is absolutely a dictatorship. They just rigged their most recent election (jailed the leading rival politician and banned apps that informed people on how to use their vote strategically to minimize Putin’s party’s power).
    - 988747 5y ago
      America labels its critics as "terrorist" and critics of Russia as "dissidents". Russia of course does the exact opposite. As for "rigged elections" all the US elections in the last 50 years were rigged as well - think about gerrymandering and deliberately blocking black and Latino minorities from voting (by making it hard for them to obtain proof of identity, or making them wait hours in line at the polling stations).
      - throwaway894345 5y ago
        > America labels its critics as "terrorist" and critics of Russia as "dissidents". Russia of course does the exact opposite. "Dissident" is just a critic of a policy or regime. It doesn't improve Russia's hand at all to say that it only assassinates critics, and it certainly isn't an exclusively US-held position that Alexander Litvinenko, Boris Nemtsov, Alexei Navalny, etc were critics (as opposed to bonafide violent terrorists). As for "America labels its critics as 'terrorists'": can you name any critics that the US labeled "terrorists" and consequently assassinated, especially on EU soil?
interactivecode 5y ago
The same issues apply to American control over European power supplies or Norwegian control over European power supplies. They aren't anymore dangerous for Europe. The main difference is our existing trade deals with the US are more embedded into the European economy than any of the other countries. We like the US now, they are our friends, but because they are more connected, we are more reliant on them than others, which is dangerous in and of itself.
- BBC-vs-neolibs 5y ago
  Yeah, bring that argument when Norway occupies the Crimean peninsula.
- smnrchrds 5y ago
  We Canadians felt this deeply when US kept all their domestically-produced vaccine doses for themselves in early 2021. We had grown accustomed to the flow of goods and services between US and Canada being uninterrupted. So for many of us, it was a shock and a disappointment when the US decided to turn off the tap.
  - throwaway894345 5y ago
    Honestly, I don't know why this would be so surprising. You're comparing the flow of goods in a stable supply chain with the unprecedented demand for a novel vaccine for which no existing supply chain existed. Of course there wouldn't be a ready flow of vaccine immediately, and of course every country prioritizes its own citizens first and foremost. Now that demand has eased considerably, the US is now donating more doses of vaccine than all of the other countries on the planet combined.
    - adventured 5y ago
      You're being downvoted because you're not allowed to point out on HN that the US is donating more vaccine doses than the rest of the world combined. Just like the US donates as much food to the rest of the world as all other nations combined and has been doing it for a century now. US bad.
inglor_cz 5y ago
As much as I am wary about Russian influence (we were under their yoke 1948-1989, with an outright invasion in 1968), Gazprom never fooled around with gas deliveries into Western Europe. They know that they need to maintain spotless business reputation, precisely because Europe is already on the fence re doing any business with Russia at all and because gas exports are the most reliable source of hard currency for Russia. Turning gas off is a nuclear option for Kremlin. Not unthinkable, but very extreme.
- londons_explore 5y ago
  It's also pretty easy to build storage facilities so they have to turn the gas off for a long time before the effects are felt. Storage of LPG for an entire winters use by a country isn't super expensive.
  - inglor_cz 5y ago
    Technically yes, NIMBYs might be a problem.
  - makomk 5y ago
    As far as I can tell, Europe has storage facilities but they let Gazprom run a lot of them and for some reason Gazprom has let them run down rather than refilling them like they usually would over the summer...
    - Sebb767 5y ago
      A theory I heard was that all the gas was bought up by speculators (that seems true, actually) and now they're slowly delivering the gas as needed to avoid speculators eating all the cheap gas up and then blaming Gazprom once no gas is left for the winter.
- glogla 5y ago
  It's not just the risk of the strategically turning it off. It's also creating a dependence and giving Putin money. Those are bad by themselves.
Aunche 5y ago
The irony here is that the US is the one pressuring the EU to sanction the Nord 2 pipeline. They have little to lose from its suspension. Russia is unlikely to willingly cut off gas to Western Europe because they're hurting themselves just as much.
- adventured 5y ago
  The US does have something to lose. The US is now a large natural gas exporter, and that demand pulls away from our domestic market, which forces our prices higher. When European natural gas prices are 4x-5x that of the US, the foreign demand for cheaper US imports can become a frenzy. While US prices may seem cheap by comparison to what Europe is seeing, when you triple those prices versus a year ago, US consumers feel that hit significantly (with many population centers in the US having quite cold Winter weather, expectations right now are for a quite expensive Winter season in the US for natural gas prices). And the US has also become a lot more dependent on natural gas as an energy source over the last 15-20 years, so it's increasingly sensitive to such large price spikes; far more so than back in the commodity bubble years of 2005-2008 which saw US natural gas prices climb to about 3x where they're at now (before the supply boom in the US crushed prices). If natural gas prices in the US keep soaring, you can expect the Biden Administration to look into turning off exports via whatever justification they can come up with to make it happen.
dragonelite 5y ago
Not much different from other sources, Europe is not resource/energy rich like the US.
- throwaway894345 5y ago
  A polity which is not energy rich should have a diverse energy portfolio so one country doesn't have too much power. As it stands, 40% of European natural gas comes from Russia and virtually none from the US. Investing more in Russia gives Russia tremendous power over Europe. Diluting that investment with natural gas from the US or some other suppliers means that Europe can afford to walk away from any deal with any of them at small cost to itself. Further still, divesting itself of nuclear also worsens EU energy security, because nuclear doesn't require a pipeline from anywhere (yes, you have to import Uranium, but its very cheap to import per unit energy, even at its current elevated price point).