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I don't think it has to do with defunding the police at all. I do think is has to do with removing the ability of the police to make arrests or when they do the

I don't think it has to do with defunding the police at all. I do think is has to do with removing the ability of the police to make arrests or when they do the person is just released. In Portland, when they arrest someone, the DA just releases them. About a month ago the female owner of a coffee shop was blasted out of no where with an uppercut by a homeless guy. The dude was arrested and let out in less than 24 hours. How do you let someone violent like that just roam the streets? The only way the actually put someone away anymore is for murder. Stuff like this is definitely one factor as to why murder rates are up.

bjourne 5y ago
Isn't it a little presumptuous of you to think that you know what caused the spike when criminologists who study all kinds of crime rates for a living does not know?
- felistoria 5y ago
  It doesn't take a rocket scientist to come to the logical conclusion that catch and release of criminals will lead to more crime.
  - bjourne 5y ago
    Then perhaps you can cite some research that provides evidence for the claim that changed catch and release policies caused the uptick in murders?
    - AnimalMuppet 5y ago
      The observant will note that you also cite no evidence, not even for your claim that criminologists don't know what causes the spike. felistoria at least makes a plausible cause-and-effect argument, which is more than you have done.
      - bjourne 5y ago
        I don't claim to know what caused the spike. You'll find it implied in the NYT article that the cause for the spike is unknown. You'll find it more explicitly stated in this NYT article: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/06/upshot/murders-rising-crime-coronavirus.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/06/upshot/murders-rising-cri...
cbsmith 5y ago
> I don't think it has to do with defunding the police at all. That seems like a reasonable on conclusion given that the totals for May 1 & Jun 1 were already record setting...
- lamontcg 5y ago
  But what else could have happened in 2020 that could have caused such a dramatic spike? Maybe a worldwide global pandemic that caused many business to shutdown or go remote and a spike in domestic violence because a good chunk of the population is stuck in abusive/dysfunctional families?
  - cbsmith 5y ago
    That seems like a stretch, but worth investigating. ;-)
halfmatthalfcat 5y ago
Same story in Chicago. Not sure if it's because holding them would cause overcrowding or what but it's a huge problem
- spamizbad 5y ago
  Illinois had, at one point, the most crowded prisons in the nation. They're still technically over capacity, but it's no longer that extreme. In my opinion, if you want to throw more people in prison, you need to invest in the infrastructure to house them. Voters quickly lose their appetite for "Law and Order"/"Throw away the key" when the tax man comes by asking to build a new prison and hire more prison guards. I don't see many people advocating for more IDOC funding although I'm sure they exist. Should we be locking more people up? Maybe, but how are we going to pay for it? And is that really the correct answer when the United States incarceration rate is already several times higher than the OECD average? I would say the smarter course of action is to address root causes of these problems - building more prisons and trying to incarcerate our way out of the problem is just creating our own gulag archipelago.
  - ahefner 5y ago
    Maybe our for-profit private prisons are far too expensive to operate. Maybe we're also too skittish about exercising the death penalty for obviously hopeless cases.
  - maccolgan 5y ago
    The taxman has cried wolf multiple times, that's why people don't like it.
GoodJokes 5y ago
Prison is not effective and inhumane.
drbojingle 5y ago
I agree. It's not as if police actively go searching for murderers to catch. They respond to issues that have already happened.
BitwiseFool 5y ago
The dominant mindset these days is that prison should be about rehabilitation, not punishment. It sounds wonderful and unobjectionable on its surface. But it is wrong. Not entirely wrong, but wrong nonetheless. Because prison also serves as a risk reduction measure for the general public. While I do want our justice system to try its hardest to rehabilitate people, I hold the abhorrently unpopular opinion that some portion of the population just needs to be kept away from the rest. I hear plenty of local news stories about a suspect who has 20+ prior offenses being let go from custody awaiting trial. Why in the world do we let people with such a track record out of jail, much less with no cash bail?
- joshuamorton 5y ago
  You're simplifying the opposing position in a way that isn't fully honest. There are at least four purposes incarceration can serve: rehabilitation, retribution, dissuasion, and separation. Rehabilitation meaning, giving people the tools and resources to avoid recidivism. Retribution being, punishment or justice for the benefit of the victim. Separation being physical removal of people incompatible or dangerous to society. Dissuasion being what you describe, punishment that rational actors will take into account when deciding to take an action. Pro-rehabilitation people argue that rehabilitation should be the first priority, and retribution the last, with separation there when necessary (think: life sentences for people who murder without remorse) and dissuasion somewhere in the middle. Compare prison to something like an inpatient addiction recovery center, which aims to rehabilitate and separate (although sort of in the reverse way) and how much more constructive that is. I don't think there's very many people at all (even among like hardcore prison abolitionists) who believe that it's possible to entirely do away with some form of separation of people who are dangerously incompatible with the norms of society. If nothing else, mentally ill people who can exhibit violent behaviors will continue to exist. All that said, your comment also has very little to do with murder rates. Those don't really correlate a lot with petty crime or even petty violent crime. Someone who makes a living breaking into cars doesn't suddenly jump to murder.
- maxmcd 5y ago
  The United States has the largest prison population in the world and the highest incarceration rate. Every time there is a crime thread on HN it is full of anecdotal stories about how we can be tougher on crime. It boggles my mind that this is the accepted framing. You're not going to "see" the lives that wasted in prisons that would have been reasonably rehabilitated in other countries. You would have to think the criminal justice system in the united states is extremely fair and that we have a dramatically different population to place such a high priority on the people that are possibly victims of crimes over people that are inappropriately incarcerated.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
commandlinefan 5y ago
> I don't think it has to do with defunding the police at all. I do think is has to do with removing the ability of the police to make arrests Or a mixture of the two.
- felistoria 5y ago
  True

bjourne 5y ago

Isn't it a little presumptuous of you to think that you know what caused the spike when criminologists who study all kinds of crime rates for a living does not know?

felistoria 5y ago
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to come to the logical conclusion that catch and release of criminals will lead to more crime.
- bjourne 5y ago
  Then perhaps you can cite some research that provides evidence for the claim that changed catch and release policies caused the uptick in murders?
  - AnimalMuppet 5y ago
    The observant will note that you also cite no evidence, not even for your claim that criminologists don't know what causes the spike. felistoria at least makes a plausible cause-and-effect argument, which is more than you have done.
    - bjourne 5y ago
      I don't claim to know what caused the spike. You'll find it implied in the NYT article that the cause for the spike is unknown. You'll find it more explicitly stated in this NYT article: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/06/upshot/murders-rising-crime-coronavirus.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/06/upshot/murders-rising-cri...

cbsmith 5y ago

> I don't think it has to do with defunding the police at all. That seems like a reasonable on conclusion given that the totals for May 1 & Jun 1 were already record setting...

lamontcg 5y ago
But what else could have happened in 2020 that could have caused such a dramatic spike? Maybe a worldwide global pandemic that caused many business to shutdown or go remote and a spike in domestic violence because a good chunk of the population is stuck in abusive/dysfunctional families?
- cbsmith 5y ago
  That seems like a stretch, but worth investigating. ;-)

halfmatthalfcat 5y ago

Same story in Chicago. Not sure if it's because holding them would cause overcrowding or what but it's a huge problem

spamizbad 5y ago
Illinois had, at one point, the most crowded prisons in the nation. They're still technically over capacity, but it's no longer that extreme. In my opinion, if you want to throw more people in prison, you need to invest in the infrastructure to house them. Voters quickly lose their appetite for "Law and Order"/"Throw away the key" when the tax man comes by asking to build a new prison and hire more prison guards. I don't see many people advocating for more IDOC funding although I'm sure they exist. Should we be locking more people up? Maybe, but how are we going to pay for it? And is that really the correct answer when the United States incarceration rate is already several times higher than the OECD average? I would say the smarter course of action is to address root causes of these problems - building more prisons and trying to incarcerate our way out of the problem is just creating our own gulag archipelago.
- ahefner 5y ago
  Maybe our for-profit private prisons are far too expensive to operate. Maybe we're also too skittish about exercising the death penalty for obviously hopeless cases.
- maccolgan 5y ago
  The taxman has cried wolf multiple times, that's why people don't like it.

GoodJokes 5y ago

Prison is not effective and inhumane.

drbojingle 5y ago

I agree. It's not as if police actively go searching for murderers to catch. They respond to issues that have already happened.

BitwiseFool 5y ago

The dominant mindset these days is that prison should be about rehabilitation, not punishment. It sounds wonderful and unobjectionable on its surface. But it is wrong. Not entirely wrong, but wrong nonetheless. Because prison also serves as a risk reduction measure for the general public. While I do want our justice system to try its hardest to rehabilitate people, I hold the abhorrently unpopular opinion that some portion of the population just needs to be kept away from the rest. I hear plenty of local news stories about a suspect who has 20+ prior offenses being let go from custody awaiting trial. Why in the world do we let people with such a track record out of jail, much less with no cash bail?

joshuamorton 5y ago
You're simplifying the opposing position in a way that isn't fully honest. There are at least four purposes incarceration can serve: rehabilitation, retribution, dissuasion, and separation. Rehabilitation meaning, giving people the tools and resources to avoid recidivism. Retribution being, punishment or justice for the benefit of the victim. Separation being physical removal of people incompatible or dangerous to society. Dissuasion being what you describe, punishment that rational actors will take into account when deciding to take an action. Pro-rehabilitation people argue that rehabilitation should be the first priority, and retribution the last, with separation there when necessary (think: life sentences for people who murder without remorse) and dissuasion somewhere in the middle. Compare prison to something like an inpatient addiction recovery center, which aims to rehabilitate and separate (although sort of in the reverse way) and how much more constructive that is. I don't think there's very many people at all (even among like hardcore prison abolitionists) who believe that it's possible to entirely do away with some form of separation of people who are dangerously incompatible with the norms of society. If nothing else, mentally ill people who can exhibit violent behaviors will continue to exist. All that said, your comment also has very little to do with murder rates. Those don't really correlate a lot with petty crime or even petty violent crime. Someone who makes a living breaking into cars doesn't suddenly jump to murder.
maxmcd 5y ago
The United States has the largest prison population in the world and the highest incarceration rate. Every time there is a crime thread on HN it is full of anecdotal stories about how we can be tougher on crime. It boggles my mind that this is the accepted framing. You're not going to "see" the lives that wasted in prisons that would have been reasonably rehabilitated in other countries. You would have to think the criminal justice system in the united states is extremely fair and that we have a dramatically different population to place such a high priority on the people that are possibly victims of crimes over people that are inappropriately incarcerated.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

commandlinefan 5y ago

> I don't think it has to do with defunding the police at all. I do think is has to do with removing the ability of the police to make arrests Or a mixture of the two.

felistoria 5y ago
True