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Did anyone expect anything else? It was either extinction of the virus (which was unrealistic once it was out of China) or it evolving into a sort of cold with

Did anyone expect anything else? It was either extinction of the virus (which was unrealistic once it was out of China) or it evolving into a sort of cold with lots of casualties on the way there (the better adapted a disease is to their host, the better the survival rate of the host usually is). Even Dr. Christian Drosten, one of Germany's top virologists [0], is now saying that he's planning to get the disease one day to develop additional immunity in the upper respiratory tract but ideally he would like to be able to receive a booster shot before that. He also wants that available doses go to countries with low vaccination rates first, though, so I guess that means he's not planning to get Covid anytime soon[1][2]. [0] If you want to get an idea what sort of 'top' we're talking about: he co-discovered SARS-Cov-1 and was part of the collaboration that developed the first Covid-19 test. [1] (german) https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/coronaskript324.pdf https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/coronaskript324.pdf [2] page 16ff. in [1]: "Mein Ziel als Virologe Drosten, wie ich jetzt gerne immun werden will, ist: Ich will eine Impfimmunität haben und darauf aufsattelnd will ich dann aber durchaus irgendwann meine erste allgemeine Infektion und die zweite und die dritte haben. Damit habe ich mich schon lange abgefunden. [...] Und ich muss zugeben, ich wäre gerne auch noch ein drittes Mal geimpft. Aber hier würde ich als Bürger dann auch sagen: Meine dritte Impfdosis geht erst mal nach Afrika."

mannykannot 5y ago
> Did anyone expect anything else? Probably - and probably many more who would be unsure what to think, if they were asked.
- muttled 5y ago
  Perhaps (definitely) naively, I assumed at the beginning of the whole thing that we'd quickly kick out a vaccine and eradicate it like Polio. Maybe have some challenges at the tail end as we get the entire world vaccinated. I didn't expect the rollout to be intentionally tripped up.
  - nradov 5y ago
    We were only able to eradicate smallpox and (almost) polio because we had highly sterilizing vaccines and there were no animal reservoirs. That situation does not obtain with SARS-CoV-2. Even if we could somehow clear it from every human simultaneously (not possible), the bats that presumably transmitted it to us in the first place are still out there somewhere. So it will be the fifth endemic human coronavirus and will never be eradicated. Fortunately the vaccines are very effective at preventing deaths.
    - _Microft 5y ago
      Bats might not be such a huge problem at being a reservoir as we hardly get in close contact with them. I would be more concerned about pets.
      - nradov 5y ago
        Most mammal species including dogs and cats are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection. https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0250853 https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal... Someone in China apparently got in close contact with a bat at least once. All it takes is a single index case to start a pandemic.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
rualca 5y ago
> Did anyone expect anything else? It was either extinction of the virus (which was unrealistic once it was out of China) or it evolving into a sort of cold with lots of casualties on the way there (the better adapted a disease is to their host, the better the survival rate of the host usually is). The "evolve into a cold" hypothesis was more wishful thinking than a sure thing (i.e., pretending the problem would magically go away), which thankly was made possible with the quick turnaround time of the current batch of vaccines. However, not only are there serious long-lasting consequences from getting Covid but it is also possible to be reinfected with more serious consequences. Finally, there was a third scenario which I feel people are glancing over: the inception of new strains that pose bigger health risks. The Delta variant popped up from nowhere, spread like wildfire, and is deadlier. In a scenario where vaccines do not ensure immunity and where restrictions are being lifted then this development needs to be on the table because arguably we are already living it.
- nradov 5y ago
  There is no "evolve into a cold" hypothesis. SARS-CoV-2 already is a cold for the vast majority of youths that get infected, just like the other four endemic common cold coronaviruses. The only reason those other viruses don't kill as many people today is that most of us get infected as youths and then the resulting natural immunity gives us some protection later in life. Symptomatic reinfection is possible but remains rare. The Delta variant is more contagious but there's no reliable evidence that it has a higher fatality rate. Vaccination cuts the fatality rate close to zero.
peakaboo 5y ago
I didn't take any precautions, got covid (I guess, never had serious symptoms), probably have natural immunity now. For me, covid is over for a long time. I'm back to living life normally. Never vaccinating because I don't think its healthy.
- sorethescore 5y ago
  Get vaccinated and then you can be sure to have natural immunity.
- randomopining 5y ago
  Why is vaccinating not healthy? Do you have any evidence of a significant "unhealthiness"? I'm pro-pragmatism, which means I don't think covid is a big deal for most people after they're vaxxed. So let's all get vaxxed and then go about our business.
- echlebek 5y ago
  You are wrong. Get vaccinated.
  - atatatat 5y ago
    Source?
    - echlebek 5y ago
      What an asinine question. Shame on you. Here's a list of 14 horrible diseases that you won't get, because of vaccines. https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/parents/diseases/forgot-14-diseases.html https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/parents/diseases/forgot-14-dise... It's not up for debate. Get vaccinated.
      - grillvogel 5y ago
        why is it always presented as though all vaccines are equal? why is it not possible to be supportive of some vaccines and cautious about brand new ones? this is like making the argument that all medicine is good for you because "medicine" works. some medicines turned out to be very bad for you in the long term.

mannykannot 5y ago

> Did anyone expect anything else? Probably - and probably many more who would be unsure what to think, if they were asked.

muttled 5y ago
Perhaps (definitely) naively, I assumed at the beginning of the whole thing that we'd quickly kick out a vaccine and eradicate it like Polio. Maybe have some challenges at the tail end as we get the entire world vaccinated. I didn't expect the rollout to be intentionally tripped up.
- nradov 5y ago
  We were only able to eradicate smallpox and (almost) polio because we had highly sterilizing vaccines and there were no animal reservoirs. That situation does not obtain with SARS-CoV-2. Even if we could somehow clear it from every human simultaneously (not possible), the bats that presumably transmitted it to us in the first place are still out there somewhere. So it will be the fifth endemic human coronavirus and will never be eradicated. Fortunately the vaccines are very effective at preventing deaths.
  - _Microft 5y ago
    Bats might not be such a huge problem at being a reservoir as we hardly get in close contact with them. I would be more concerned about pets.
    - nradov 5y ago
      Most mammal species including dogs and cats are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection. https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0250853 https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal... Someone in China apparently got in close contact with a bat at least once. All it takes is a single index case to start a pandemic.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

rualca 5y ago

> Did anyone expect anything else? It was either extinction of the virus (which was unrealistic once it was out of China) or it evolving into a sort of cold with lots of casualties on the way there (the better adapted a disease is to their host, the better the survival rate of the host usually is). The "evolve into a cold" hypothesis was more wishful thinking than a sure thing (i.e., pretending the problem would magically go away), which thankly was made possible with the quick turnaround time of the current batch of vaccines. However, not only are there serious long-lasting consequences from getting Covid but it is also possible to be reinfected with more serious consequences. Finally, there was a third scenario which I feel people are glancing over: the inception of new strains that pose bigger health risks. The Delta variant popped up from nowhere, spread like wildfire, and is deadlier. In a scenario where vaccines do not ensure immunity and where restrictions are being lifted then this development needs to be on the table because arguably we are already living it.

nradov 5y ago
There is no "evolve into a cold" hypothesis. SARS-CoV-2 already is a cold for the vast majority of youths that get infected, just like the other four endemic common cold coronaviruses. The only reason those other viruses don't kill as many people today is that most of us get infected as youths and then the resulting natural immunity gives us some protection later in life. Symptomatic reinfection is possible but remains rare. The Delta variant is more contagious but there's no reliable evidence that it has a higher fatality rate. Vaccination cuts the fatality rate close to zero.

peakaboo 5y ago

I didn't take any precautions, got covid (I guess, never had serious symptoms), probably have natural immunity now. For me, covid is over for a long time. I'm back to living life normally. Never vaccinating because I don't think its healthy.

sorethescore 5y ago
Get vaccinated and then you can be sure to have natural immunity.
randomopining 5y ago
Why is vaccinating not healthy? Do you have any evidence of a significant "unhealthiness"? I'm pro-pragmatism, which means I don't think covid is a big deal for most people after they're vaxxed. So let's all get vaxxed and then go about our business.
echlebek 5y ago
You are wrong. Get vaccinated.
- atatatat 5y ago
  Source?
  - echlebek 5y ago
    What an asinine question. Shame on you. Here's a list of 14 horrible diseases that you won't get, because of vaccines. https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/parents/diseases/forgot-14-diseases.html https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/parents/diseases/forgot-14-dise... It's not up for debate. Get vaccinated.
    - grillvogel 5y ago
      why is it always presented as though all vaccines are equal? why is it not possible to be supportive of some vaccines and cautious about brand new ones? this is like making the argument that all medicine is good for you because "medicine" works. some medicines turned out to be very bad for you in the long term.