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Nothing wrong with the fundamentals of your argument, but growth can’t be unlimited. Eventually it’s starts slowing down, then those complacent middle class wi

Nothing wrong with the fundamentals of your argument, but growth can’t be unlimited. Eventually it’s starts slowing down, then those complacent middle class will start being less complacent and start demanding more freedom. I think it’s reasonable to say the CCP will keep their grip on power for as long as they can continue delivering wealth to the middle class, and lifting those in poverty into the middle class. What’s not clear is how long the CCP can continue delivering that wealth. The ongoing crisis with Everglade is showing that the CCP power and ability to generate wealth is not unlimited. I doubt it’s the beginning of the end, but it does shine a light on the long term structural flaws of their strategy. It’ll be interesting to see how the CCP deals with this over the next 10 to 20 years, maybe they’ll find a new strategy to maintain power, or maybe they’ll start a slow and gentle transition into democracy, allowing them to placate the middle class who won’t be seeing outsized wealth growth anymore.

selfhoster11 5y ago
That newly freedom-thirsty middle class could be simply brutally suppressed by an automated police force, powered by AI-driven surveillance. The CCP is a long-term thinking government, I'm sure they are at least considering how it would work.
- avianlyric 5y ago
  Perhaps, but a brutally suppressed population doesn’t tend to be a very productive one. Not saying it won’t happen, but I don’t think it’s a clear cut as you make it, and I think the CCP are smart enough to know that. They already do an astonishingly good job of treading the line between an authoritarian government that exploits it population for wealth, and one that empowers its populations for productivity and even greater wealth.
- simmerup 5y ago
  The problem comes from the fact that educated, wealthy middle classes are not fungible I'm the same way peasants are. You can crush a thousand peasant farmers and replace them easily, you can't do that with the middle class without heavily setting back your economy and therefore being less competitive on the world stage. The CCP will need to decide whether they want to release control and let their population produce value, or keep control and be unable to compete as a world power. That's my take.
  - true_religion 5y ago
    Considering the cultural revolution in China, the Siberian extermination camps of Soviet Russia, and the utterly bizarre treatment Imperial Britain had for petty criminals at the turn of the century, and the US Southern states fighting and dying for the right to enslave… I think that authoritarian governments would rather see tens if not hundreds of millions die before they ever lose their grip on power. When things go poorly there is always an internal scapegoat, and knowing that no matter how low your situation is it’s (a) not your fault and (b) there is someone who has it worse is a great way to keep social cohesion through troublesome times. And if all else fails, one can find an external party and invade them as both a distraction and a way to deliver spoils to your loyalists. I’d bet that things will get worse for ethnic and religious minorities in China during a downturn in the economy and if the economy continues to slowly slide for a decade then the neighbors of China like the Philippines will see more of their territory taken away.
- datavirtue 5y ago
  My bet is on good ole drugged troops over AI.
adventured 5y ago
> then those complacent middle class will start being less complacent and start demanding more freedom. They will not start demanding more freedom (only a small minority will do that). They will become increasingly agitated and demand the kind of economic progress they had before, which the CCP won't be able to deliver (the easy, fast, low-debt growth has largely been saturated). Specifically the CCP | people-of-China socioeconomic pact is based on the country continuing to deliver massive economic gains to the bulk of the population. Xi has begun a new cultural revolution (just ahead of the curve) because he recognizes it's going to be required to stomp down on the population in order for the CCP to retain its position, as the easy economic gains are well over. The leadership of the CCP recognizes what's inevitable about their context: they either had to let go of power increasingly, or they have to become more totalitarian, as the growth pact begins to falter. What waits for China the next 30 years, is significant demographic erosion, slow growth and epic persistent debt problems (which doesn't mean they aren't going to be a superpower, they are).
- datavirtue 5y ago
  In this vein, this is the United States' opportunity to out-compete China. We need to refactor immigration and foreign policy to embrace adding regions, refugees, and other migrants to our fold. Otherwise they will be added adhoc in overwhelming numbers and much to the surprise of government and the people. The world is getting hot. This causes unforseen changes like political upheaval and subsequent migrations (Hatian example recently). The only answer might be adding other countries into our representative government system (not colonialism, but peacefully and equitably adding other willing states that want to benefit from stable government). Seems people are already voting to join with their feet. Embrace it.
dom96 5y ago
I feel like North Korea shows that it's not just about growth. I would expect the CCP to hold power in the same way North Korea's dictator holds power even when the majority of the country is starving. Am I wrong?
delecti 5y ago
> ongoing crisis with Everglade What is this? "Everglade" is a common enough word that I can't find anything besides mentions of the wetlands in Florida.
- htrp 5y ago
  > What is this? "Everglade" GP needs to learn to spell Evergrande is an indebted chinese property developer which is the current ticking financial time bomb this week in China.
  - LittlePeter 5y ago
    What does GP stand for?
    - HerrMonnezza 5y ago
      Grand-Parent (comment)
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
htrp 5y ago
>The ongoing crisis with Everglade You mean Evergrande (3333.HK)

selfhoster11 5y ago

That newly freedom-thirsty middle class could be simply brutally suppressed by an automated police force, powered by AI-driven surveillance. The CCP is a long-term thinking government, I'm sure they are at least considering how it would work.

avianlyric 5y ago
Perhaps, but a brutally suppressed population doesn’t tend to be a very productive one. Not saying it won’t happen, but I don’t think it’s a clear cut as you make it, and I think the CCP are smart enough to know that. They already do an astonishingly good job of treading the line between an authoritarian government that exploits it population for wealth, and one that empowers its populations for productivity and even greater wealth.
simmerup 5y ago
The problem comes from the fact that educated, wealthy middle classes are not fungible I'm the same way peasants are. You can crush a thousand peasant farmers and replace them easily, you can't do that with the middle class without heavily setting back your economy and therefore being less competitive on the world stage. The CCP will need to decide whether they want to release control and let their population produce value, or keep control and be unable to compete as a world power. That's my take.
- true_religion 5y ago
  Considering the cultural revolution in China, the Siberian extermination camps of Soviet Russia, and the utterly bizarre treatment Imperial Britain had for petty criminals at the turn of the century, and the US Southern states fighting and dying for the right to enslave… I think that authoritarian governments would rather see tens if not hundreds of millions die before they ever lose their grip on power. When things go poorly there is always an internal scapegoat, and knowing that no matter how low your situation is it’s (a) not your fault and (b) there is someone who has it worse is a great way to keep social cohesion through troublesome times. And if all else fails, one can find an external party and invade them as both a distraction and a way to deliver spoils to your loyalists. I’d bet that things will get worse for ethnic and religious minorities in China during a downturn in the economy and if the economy continues to slowly slide for a decade then the neighbors of China like the Philippines will see more of their territory taken away.
datavirtue 5y ago
My bet is on good ole drugged troops over AI.

adventured 5y ago

> then those complacent middle class will start being less complacent and start demanding more freedom. They will not start demanding more freedom (only a small minority will do that). They will become increasingly agitated and demand the kind of economic progress they had before, which the CCP won't be able to deliver (the easy, fast, low-debt growth has largely been saturated). Specifically the CCP | people-of-China socioeconomic pact is based on the country continuing to deliver massive economic gains to the bulk of the population. Xi has begun a new cultural revolution (just ahead of the curve) because he recognizes it's going to be required to stomp down on the population in order for the CCP to retain its position, as the easy economic gains are well over. The leadership of the CCP recognizes what's inevitable about their context: they either had to let go of power increasingly, or they have to become more totalitarian, as the growth pact begins to falter. What waits for China the next 30 years, is significant demographic erosion, slow growth and epic persistent debt problems (which doesn't mean they aren't going to be a superpower, they are).

datavirtue 5y ago
In this vein, this is the United States' opportunity to out-compete China. We need to refactor immigration and foreign policy to embrace adding regions, refugees, and other migrants to our fold. Otherwise they will be added adhoc in overwhelming numbers and much to the surprise of government and the people. The world is getting hot. This causes unforseen changes like political upheaval and subsequent migrations (Hatian example recently). The only answer might be adding other countries into our representative government system (not colonialism, but peacefully and equitably adding other willing states that want to benefit from stable government). Seems people are already voting to join with their feet. Embrace it.

dom96 5y ago

I feel like North Korea shows that it's not just about growth. I would expect the CCP to hold power in the same way North Korea's dictator holds power even when the majority of the country is starving. Am I wrong?

delecti 5y ago

> ongoing crisis with Everglade What is this? "Everglade" is a common enough word that I can't find anything besides mentions of the wetlands in Florida.

htrp 5y ago
> What is this? "Everglade" GP needs to learn to spell Evergrande is an indebted chinese property developer which is the current ticking financial time bomb this week in China.
- LittlePeter 5y ago
  What does GP stand for?
  - HerrMonnezza 5y ago
    Grand-Parent (comment)
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

htrp 5y ago

>The ongoing crisis with Everglade You mean Evergrande (3333.HK)