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Something doesn't add up. Vaccine makers say it also prevents against asymptomatic infection, e.g. biontech[1] delta variant asymtpomatic infection lists "79% (

by lucb1e 5y ago

Something doesn't add up. Vaccine makers say it also prevents against asymptomatic infection, e.g. biontech[1] delta variant asymtpomatic infection lists "79% (75–82%)" (presumably it's the 95% confidence interval or something similar in parentheses -- in any case, it's substantial). I remember the happy news when the studies came out, saying we were also preventing transmission to unvaccinated people (initially for Alpha with 92% (90–93%), that's the number that stuck in my head to be honest). How can this part of the article be true then? > the covid vaccines are extremely leaky and may well accelerate contracting and carrying covid. (Where 'leaky' is a link to another article on substack where it is explained as meaning 'not preventing being contagious'. Continuing the quote:) > they allow for very high viral loads to go unnoticed and generate a new and severe asymptomatic spread vector to where none existed before. [...] > vaccine campaigns cause superspread events because vaccination leads to a 2 week window of 40-100% more covid risk It might transmit via a vaccinated person in some of the cases, but way fewer than if you're unvaccinated, so vaccinations should still be helpful? Or does the math on 79% (assuming that's the true value) + Delta-levels of contagiousness + number of cases still around + % of people unvaccinated work out to a worse scenario than <10% vaccinated + people that get sick take notice and stay home? [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pfizer%E2%80%93BioNTech_COVID-19_vaccine#Effectiveness https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pfizer%E2%80%93BioNTech_COVID-...

perl4ever 5y ago
The thing about vaccination is that it's given people license to go back to offices. Maybe vaccines work pretty well, but the combination of cramming people into offices again (and elevators, and conference rooms) plus delta, is or will be, fueling a new and worse wave as things are worse on net. I feel antagonized by the contradiction between "we have to be in the office because reasons" and "we have to wear masks, because it's life and death if we don't". I'm fine with wearing masks in public, and I'm fine with being in the office, but I'm not ok with the contradiction implied by insisting on both. I'm not searching really hard at the moment, but if I find a completely remote job, I may take it.
walterbell 5y ago
> vaccine campaigns cause superspread events because vaccination leads to a 2 week window of 40-100% more covid risk This is referencing the period immediately after the first shot where there is general immune system suppression as the body reacts to the vaccine, making net "efficacy" negative. Ideally, vaccine recipients would isolate for 2 weeks after the vaccine to reduce exposure to pathogens, avoid physical exertion and rest so the body can recover quickly. Any infections during this period would be categorized as "unvaccinated" and the CDC maintains this categorization until 2 weeks after the final shot, by which time vaccine efficacy turns positive. A "leaky" vaccine is one that is non-sterilizing, which applies to all existing Covid vaccines. They were designed to prevent serious illness, not infection or transmission. Since people remain confused about this topic, the CDC changed the definition of vaccine on their website in Sept 2021, defining it as providing "protection" rather than "immunity" (which is only available to Covid survivors).
nradov 5y ago
The Moderna vaccine is 98% effective in preventing severe disease but only 63% effective in preventing infections. Those vaccinated but infected people can still spread the virus, although they're probably contagious for a shorter period on average than unvaccinated people. Note that data was largely gathered before the Delta variant became prevalent so the current numbers could be a little worse. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2113017 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2113017 Preliminary data from Project Salus indicates that mRNA vaccine effectiveness against infection quickly drops to 41% among elderly patients. Hence the recommendation to administer a third booster to them. https://www.humetrix.com/powerpoint-vaccine.html https://www.humetrix.com/powerpoint-vaccine.html

by lucb1e 5y ago

perl4ever 5y ago

The thing about vaccination is that it's given people license to go back to offices. Maybe vaccines work pretty well, but the combination of cramming people into offices again (and elevators, and conference rooms) plus delta, is or will be, fueling a new and worse wave as things are worse on net. I feel antagonized by the contradiction between "we have to be in the office because reasons" and "we have to wear masks, because it's life and death if we don't". I'm fine with wearing masks in public, and I'm fine with being in the office, but I'm not ok with the contradiction implied by insisting on both. I'm not searching really hard at the moment, but if I find a completely remote job, I may take it.

walterbell 5y ago

> vaccine campaigns cause superspread events because vaccination leads to a 2 week window of 40-100% more covid risk This is referencing the period immediately after the first shot where there is general immune system suppression as the body reacts to the vaccine, making net "efficacy" negative. Ideally, vaccine recipients would isolate for 2 weeks after the vaccine to reduce exposure to pathogens, avoid physical exertion and rest so the body can recover quickly. Any infections during this period would be categorized as "unvaccinated" and the CDC maintains this categorization until 2 weeks after the final shot, by which time vaccine efficacy turns positive. A "leaky" vaccine is one that is non-sterilizing, which applies to all existing Covid vaccines. They were designed to prevent serious illness, not infection or transmission. Since people remain confused about this topic, the CDC changed the definition of vaccine on their website in Sept 2021, defining it as providing "protection" rather than "immunity" (which is only available to Covid survivors).

nradov 5y ago

The Moderna vaccine is 98% effective in preventing severe disease but only 63% effective in preventing infections. Those vaccinated but infected people can still spread the virus, although they're probably contagious for a shorter period on average than unvaccinated people. Note that data was largely gathered before the Delta variant became prevalent so the current numbers could be a little worse. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2113017 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2113017 Preliminary data from Project Salus indicates that mRNA vaccine effectiveness against infection quickly drops to 41% among elderly patients. Hence the recommendation to administer a third booster to them. https://www.humetrix.com/powerpoint-vaccine.html https://www.humetrix.com/powerpoint-vaccine.html