4 ms·
FiveThirtyEight weights its averages by pollster accuracy/methodology. Next, we determine how much weight to give each poll in our average. First, polls conduc
by tantalor 5y ago
FiveThirtyEight weights its averages by pollster accuracy/methodology.
Next, we determine how much weight to give each poll in our average. First, polls conducted by pollsters with higher FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings — a letter grade measuring how accurate and methodologically sound pollsters are — are given more weight
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-were-tracking-joe-bidens-approval-rating/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-were-tracking-joe-b...
- nradov 5y agoThere is no equivalent feedback mechanism in medical research. Other than looking for retracted papers, we don't have a reliable way to quantify whether a particular author is "correct" more often than another.
- antman 5y agoThe author’s Hindex could be an initial weighting factor
- civilized 5y ago"Initial"? You haven't proposed any way to improve the weighting, so it would just be H index forever. We'd be baking in a cultural presumption that researchers who are more cited are more likely to be correct. A really dystopian prospect.
- ekianjo 5y agoFiveThirtyEight forecasts are very questionable themselves. Been completely wrong on multiple counts.
- jakeinspace 5y agoSure, but generally because the aggregated polls were systematically off. You may be thinking of other examples, but the 2016 US presidential election really wasn't that bad of a look for 538, they had Trump at reasonable odds going into election night. It's not like he was at 5%, 538 pegged him at 1/3 odds as polls opened if I remember correctly.
- rapind 5y agoSo is the weather forecast though. 10% chance of rain tomorrow means, yeah it could rain. Doesn't mean it isn't useful.
- pid-1 5y agoYou can check rain forecast results thousands of times and estimate how often they are correct. Assigning probabilities to events that happen infrequently (US pres. Elections, wars, end of the world...) is bullshit IMO.
- ekianjo 5y agoIt's on the aggregate of predictions that you can see the accuracy. If my weather app tells me hundred times there is 10% change of rain but it rains 50% of the time after 100 days, it's completely useless. Same for FiveThirtyEight. They have been massively wrong on multiple counts.
- NikolaeVarius 5y ago538 is pretty explicit about what forecasts went wrong and how they will try and fix it in the future
- gjsman-1000 5y agoFiveThirtyEight is literally owned by Disney - and should be treated as such. How is FTE determining their "pollster rating"?
- tantalor 5y ago> should be treated as such Ok > How is FTE determining their "pollster rating" https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-death-of-polling-is-greatly-exaggerated/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-death-of-polling-is...